MN Cross Country Predictions 2022

But it does seem like Mankato East improved since they last raced Big Lake, so they might have a chance to win it this year.

Speed rating from Ev Berg very unimpressive compared to times, Harder’s speed rating wouldn’t have even put him sub 16:10 at olaf, Stachewiz wouldn’t have been sub 16 at olaf. Using Olaf bc state course obv (worth noting it was hot there so not a great comparison but still). Casey’s 179 impressive for solo. Outside of Casey, nothing special, if anything disappointing especially after Stachewiz’s impressive Griak performance. Seems like both teams are asking Wayzata to win state.

No MN boys teams ranked, but Dowling Catholic (griak champs) is 22nd.

do you guys think Wayzata can beat them? Their gap behind Hamza seems to be closing

Provanzano’s new team is now ranked second. ahead of Newbury Park, who has been ranked anywhere other than first for the first time since 2019.

Lake conference predictions for the boys teams:
1. Wayzata. Beat all of the lake conference schools at Griak. Also put 4 guys under 16:01 last meet and I’m sure there are a couple of other guys that can close the gap.
2. Minnetonka. Not their best race at Griak, and the Hoka times were not as solid as we thought the were going to be, but they are still better than any teams below them.
3. Eden Prairie. Seems like they found a front runner. Just needs to close the 2-5 gap.
4. Edina. Beat Hopkins at Griak without Defor. With him back, this makes the team stronger.
5. Hopkins. Very strong at 1-3. The 4-5 gap was able to close at the Willmar invite.
6. Buffalo. Solid top 5 with a solid front runner. They beat Hopkins head to head at Bauman Rovn, but Hopkins was without their top guy there. They also beat STMA the last time they met.
7. STMA. Got beat by Buffalo the last time they raced each other.

Maybe the speed ratings are actually showing how fast or short this Ev Berg course is?
At STMA Wayzata put 4 guys under 16:01 (last year in the STMA invite their #1 ran a 16:15. They didn’t have Hamza but that’s just 1 guy missing). So it’s not surprising that their speed ratings are the best in the state. They might have re-established themselves as state favorites again.

Ev berg race video

Some more comparison
Lakeville North times
Griak
184
173
169
169
160
148
Ev Berg
179
173
169
164
159
156

Rosemount times
Griak
168
167
167
165
161
Ev Berg
172
171
168
166
160

Wayzata times
Griak
177
172
168
164
161
STMA invite (without McMillan)
177
174
172
170
161

What these SRs are telling me is that everyone at Lakeville North either ran the same or worse than they did at Griak. Did they peak too early? Or were they not on top of their game at Ev Berg?
But almost everyone at Rosemount improved from Griak.
And that everyone at Wayzata ran better at Ev Berg than at Griak

And that everyone at Wayzata ran better at not Ev Berg but STMA than at Griak

woodbury got a solid 1-5.

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east ridge second, not far behind them. Everyone is returning next year for the raptors, and they could challenge for a state meet spot after almost everyone at Rosemount leaves.

Lions invitational….
Defor wins the JV race. 16:49 so it seems like he is ready for conference. Not sure why he wasn’t put on varsity?
Girls race…with Moening gone, Highland park now has a new leader. Luna P ran a 17:52.

Did the Mounds View coaches run all their kids onto the ground because they saw an opportunity to do what they did in 2018-2019? (Go to NXN and maybe win state)
They continue to underwhelm. And so is their top guy. No offense, but they are easily the most underwhelming team in the state.
Considering they lost nobody from last year except Skelly and JC Otto. Those guys (especially skelly) must be hard to replace huh
Skelly was an irreplaceable training partner for Elliott
It’s funny how after losing Elliott (and Lelinga) they will be better next year because the teams that are better than them this year will lose more guys.

Class AAA Boys team rankings
1. Wayzata
2. Lakeville North
3. Rosemount
4. Minnetonka
5. Stillwater
6. Mounds View
7. Minneapolis Southwest
8. Bloomington Jefferson
9. Eden Prairie
10. Minneapolis Washburn

Class AAA individuals
1. Noah Breker
2. Sam Scott
3. Andrew Casey
4. Aidan Jones
5. Nick Gilles
6. Adam Lueth
7. Nolan Sutter (seemed to have done better at Lions than when he raced against Dickel)
8. Hamza Mohamed
9. Caleb Dickel
10. Cade Sanvik

Class AAA top boys teams
1- Lakeville North and South
2- Minnetonka and Eden Prairie
3- Rosemount and Bloomington Jefferson
4- Stillwater and Woodbury
5- Mounds View and Roseville
6- Wayzata and Minneapolis Southwest
7- Centennial and Blaine
8- Buffalo and Bemidji

Suburban east boys predictions:
1. Stillwater. Found a solid 1-5 pack and beat Mounds View at Alexandria Lions.
2. Mounds View. Lost to Stillwater at Alexandria Lions.
3. Roseville. Very deep senior-heavy team with a strong 1/2 punch.
4. Woodbury. Returned nearly everyone from last year. Great depth and looking to go to state for the first time in forever.
5. White Bear Lake. Solid 1-4 but seems to be lacking a number 5 to challenge Woodbury. Also much younger than Woodbury.
6. East Ridge. Lost a few seniors but reloaded nicely. Very strong, young, and deep team with 1 low stick. They have no seniors which bodes well for them next year.
7. Forest Lake. Lost some stud seniors including Vanacker, but this is a very good program that always finds ways to be competitive. Has had high state finishes in some recent years. Also has a slightly better 5K average than Park
8. Park. Has 1 guy that could go to state individually and a nice pack behind him.
9. Irondale. Lost to Forest Lake head to head.
10. Cretin. This team has been running as an incomplete team in many races. Having only 3 guys under 20 will make it hard for them to keep up with any of these other teams
Winner: Elliott McArthur

I stand by these predictions. I have Nick Gilles winning this for individuals.

Lake conference individual predictions

1. Nick Gilles-He will be back, especially if his 9:28 solo 2 mile speed maintains.

2. Suhayb Ali-This is a bold prediction, but he ran 9:32 all alone at the Hopkins Hoka 2 mile, and I think he can beat Hamza.

3. Hamza Mohamed-Has shown his potential all season.

4. Max Westerlund-Was close behind Hamza at Griak, also ran 9:44 negative split at Hoka.

5. Daniel Mccolor-Showed that he is back at STMA.

6. Will Weber-The sophomore phenom will show agin his talent.

7. Landon Hering-Started the season very well, but ran only a 9:56 at Hopkins 2 mile, maybe he peaked a bit early.

8. Hayes McMillan-Missed STMA, but was close behind Mccolor and Weber at Griak

9. Ryan Fries-Had a bad 2 mile in 10:14, but I think he will be back and healthy.

10. Sean Fries-10:00 2 mile as a freshman, has run 16:12, he should be up there.

11. Tyler Kissell-Ran a blazing 16:01 recently, and paid that with his Friday night lights time.

12. Logan Drevlow-Ran 10:03 at HOKA, and has run 16:23 this season, go 8th grader!

13. Jackson Downin-Shocked me with a 9:57 at HOKA, must have gotten a lot better since his PR is only 16:47.

14. Jace Haerter-Looked great at Griak, not as good at Alexandria, but he should be back as Edina’s 1.

15. Nolan Bakken-Eden Prarie’s #1, has run 16:17, but I don’t think he will replicate that.

HM: Andrew Macheel-Buffalo, Parker Dietrick-Wayzata, James Thomas-Minnetonka

Are you guys coaches or why the hell do you care about this nonsense?

People care because high school Xc is freaking awsome.

New MN Coaches Association rankings are out today. In Class A girls, Amanda Overgaauw is still #1. I was curious to see the latest rankings after Jade Rypkema ran a 17:16 on Saturday.
Amanda and Jade are so closely matched, I think. The fact is that neither has been really challenged yet this season (all of their wins have been by a wide margin). It won’t be until we see them facing each other at State again that we’ll get to see them really having to work for a win. Unfortunately we likely won’t see a PR from either on the course at St. Olaf, but it should be a terrific race.

If one or both make the trip to Sioux Falls this year, them we may see a PR or two. There they will have not only each other to race against, but they’ll have someone like Abbey Nechanicky to chase, and on that fast course I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see some fast times from them there.