They predicted Biden would win Florida by 2 points. He lost by 4 points.
They predicted Biden would lose Ohio by less than a point. He lost by 8 points.
They predicted Biden would win Pennsylvania by 5 points. He won by less than 2 points.
They predicted Biden would win Michigan by 8 points. He won by 3 points. All the winning votes magically from Detroit after 2am...
The predicted Biden would win Wisconsin by over 8 points. Biden won by less than 1 point.
They predicted Biden would win Arizona by 3 points. Biden won by .3.
538's predictions were always wrong and always in the same direction.
You are a moron.
538 correctly called the 2020 election. The only state they got wrong was Florida. Some of your conservative pollsters like Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group said Trump would win the election.
You stupid little man...
Trump lost the election by like 70,000 votes. That is significantly at odds with 538's prediction that Biden would run away with it with over 400 electoral votes.
538 is routinely wrong by at LEAST 3 points.
You would have to be a "moron" to feel good about 538 predicting victory when their own biased polls are all within 3 points.
This is what people think when they don't bother to understand the other side of the argument. Everyone thinks they are doing the right thing. Democrats believe that what they are doing will help America. They aren't all sitting in a back room somewhere conniving.
“He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that. His reasons may be good, and no one may have been able to refute them. But if he is equally unable to refute the reasons on the opposite side, if he does not so much as know what they are, he has no ground for preferring either opinion... Nor is it enough that he should hear the opinions of adversaries from his own teachers, presented as they state them, and accompanied by what they offer as refutations. He must be able to hear them from persons who actually believe them...he must know them in their most plausible and persuasive form.”--John Stuart Mill
But I realize that intellectually it's much easier simply to sort everyone into two teams and say "my team good, your team bad." Saves spending energy on things like "nuance" and "empathy."
John Stuart Mill was a smart guy. He would recognize that in an environment where 99% of the media and news lean decidedly left it is much much more likely that people on the left would be ignorant about the other side's positions.
Alas, most liberals are too stupid to understand this.
538 correctly called the 2020 election. The only state they got wrong was Florida. Some of your conservative pollsters like Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group said Trump would win the election.
You stupid little man...
Trump lost the election by like 70,000 votes. That is significantly at odds with 538's prediction that Biden would run away with it with over 400 electoral votes.
538 is routinely wrong by at LEAST 3 points.
You would have to be a "moron" to feel good about 538 predicting victory when their own biased polls are all within 3 points.
it's true that polls have underestimated the trumpist vote since 2016. Most think that is because trumpists have been taught not to trust anyone but trump and giuliani so they simply won't talk to pollsters. Which makes them systematically undercounted in polls.
Whether polling firms can adjust for that is an open question.
The other open question is if the GOP push for a national ban on abortion will create a divergence in polling....if young women will decide to vote this year more than their usual very low numbers.
Trump lost the election by like 70,000 votes. That is significantly at odds with 538's prediction that Biden would run away with it with over 400 electoral votes.
538 is routinely wrong by at LEAST 3 points.
You would have to be a "moron" to feel good about 538 predicting victory when their own biased polls are all within 3 points.
it's true that polls have underestimated the trumpist vote since 2016. Most think that is because trumpists have been taught not to trust anyone but trump and giuliani so they simply won't talk to pollsters. Which makes them systematically undercounted in polls.
Whether polling firms can adjust for that is an open question.
The other open question is if the GOP push for a national ban on abortion will create a divergence in polling....if young women will decide to vote this year more than their usual very low numbers.
The last time the generic ballot was this close was 2016.
How'd that election work out for you?
You're getting excited about the generic ballot because you don't know anything about the generic ballot.
538 correctly called the 2020 election. The only state they got wrong was Florida. Some of your conservative pollsters like Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group said Trump would win the election.
You stupid little man...
Trump lost the election by like 70,000 votes. That is significantly at odds with 538's prediction that Biden would run away with it with over 400 electoral votes.
538 is routinely wrong by at LEAST 3 points.
You would have to be a "moron" to feel good about 538 predicting victory when their own biased polls are all within 3 points.
Little man? Never been called that at 6'3", but ok.
538 predicted Biden would get 335 EC votes in its final prediction, not over 400. They only missed on Florida. Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group said Trump would win the election. 538 got it right.
it's true that polls have underestimated the trumpist vote since 2016. Most think that is because trumpists have been taught not to trust anyone but trump and giuliani so they simply won't talk to pollsters. Which makes them systematically undercounted in polls.
Whether polling firms can adjust for that is an open question.
The other open question is if the GOP push for a national ban on abortion will create a divergence in polling....if young women will decide to vote this year more than their usual very low numbers.
The last time the generic ballot was this close was 2016.
How'd that election work out for you?
You're getting excited about the generic ballot because you don't know anything about the generic ballot.
here's the thing: momentum is muy importante in polling. And the momentum is Joe-mentum.
Matthew Dowd @matthewjdowd In latest Fox News poll, Dems have 3 pt lead on generic ballot, over last few months it has gone from -7, -3, 0, to +3 today. GOP lead on handling inflation has gone from 19 pt lead to 15 to 9 pt lead. Dems now have larger lead on handling abortion than GOP has on inflation.
5 million Illegals have crossed our southern border since Biden took office. Yet our Vice President (LOL) Kamala Harris declares the southern border as "secure."
This is so great. Let's ship ALL the illegals to Kamala's residence. Sanctuary cities aren't really sanctuaries when illegals are being bused in.
Two buses carrying migrants from Del Rio, Texas, arrived outside Vice President Kamala Harris' residence at the Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C., Thursday.
Trump lost the election by like 70,000 votes. That is significantly at odds with 538's prediction that Biden would run away with it with over 400 electoral votes.
538 is routinely wrong by at LEAST 3 points.
You would have to be a "moron" to feel good about 538 predicting victory when their own biased polls are all within 3 points.
Little man? Never been called that at 6'3", but ok.
538 predicted Biden would get 335 EC votes in its final prediction, not over 400. They only missed on Florida. Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group said Trump would win the election. 538 got it right.
You are a moron.
You could be 7'3" you'd still be a little man.
538 ran 40,000 simulations and the most common result was over 400 electoral votes for Biden.
There polling was garbage in all of the battleground states.
Little man? Never been called that at 6'3", but ok.
538 predicted Biden would get 335 EC votes in its final prediction, not over 400. They only missed on Florida. Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group said Trump would win the election. 538 got it right.
You are a moron.
You could be 7'3" you'd still be a little man.
538 ran 40,000 simulations and the most common result was over 400 electoral votes for Biden.
There polling was garbage in all of the battleground states.
their...
That typo will keep the morons bouncing in their chairs like dumb apes for at least 3 minutes.
5 million Illegals have crossed our southern border since Biden took office. Yet our Vice President (LOL) Kamala Harris declares the southern border as "secure."
This is so great. Let's ship ALL the illegals to Kamala's residence. Sanctuary cities aren't really sanctuaries when illegals are being bused in.
true that the Dems have had having trouble managing the trend started under the Trump administration of increased illegal immigration on the Southern border.
Cleaning up R messes is not always easy. But the numbers do seem to be improving recently.
The statistics for the entirety of Donald Trump’s time in office are nearly all compiled. As we did for his predecessor four years ago, we present a final look at the numbers.
The economy lost 2.9 million jobs. The unemployment rate increased by 1.6 percentage points to 6.3%.
The international trade deficit Trump promised to reduce went up. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in 2020 was the highest since 2008 and increased 40.5% from 2016.
The number of people lacking health insurance rose by 3 million.
The federal debt held by the public went up, from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion.
Illegal immigration increased. Apprehensions at the Southwest border rose 14.7% last year compared with 2016.
Coal production declined 26.5%, and coal-mining jobs dropped by 16.7%.
Handgun production rose 12.5% last year compared with 2016, setting a new record.
The murder rate last year rose to the highest level since 1997.
ADD: Oil production increased by 4 million barrels per day. Oil exports increased by the same amount. AND, oil importers increased by the same amount.
So, Trump created American oil, then sold it all and then bought it all back. If he hadn't sold it all gasoline prices would have remained low through the oil price crises of of 2022 that Trump created before he left office by allowing oil companies to sell American oil on long-term contracts.
5 million Illegals have crossed our southern border since Biden took office. Yet our Vice President (LOL) Kamala Harris declares the southern border as "secure."
This is so great. Let's ship ALL the illegals to Kamala's residence. Sanctuary cities aren't really sanctuaries when illegals are being bused in.
true that the Dems have had having trouble managing the trend started under the Trump administration of increased illegal immigration on the Southern border.
Cleaning up R messes is not always easy. But the numbers do seem to be improving recently.
More blatant lies...
Sanctuary cities and pro-illegal immigration is 100% of the left.
5 million Illegals have crossed our southern border since Biden took office. Yet our Vice President (LOL) Kamala Harris declares the southern border as "secure."
This is so great. Let's ship ALL the illegals to Kamala's residence. Sanctuary cities aren't really sanctuaries when illegals are being bused in.
true that the Dems have had having trouble managing the trend started under the Trump administration of increased illegal immigration on the Southern border.
Cleaning up R messes is not always easy. But the numbers do seem to be improving recently.
Kudos to Agip for at least acknowledging the southern border is open.
5 million Illegals have crossed our southern border since Biden took office. Yet our Vice President (LOL) Kamala Harris declares the southern border as "secure."
This is so great. Let's ship ALL the illegals to Kamala's residence. Sanctuary cities aren't really sanctuaries when illegals are being bused in.
true that the Dems have had having trouble managing the trend started under the Trump administration of increased illegal immigration on the Southern border.
Cleaning up R messes is not always easy. But the numbers do seem to be improving recently.
The R's are a dying party. They have failed the only proven method that keeps political parties viable in the long term. They have failed to adapt to modern political conditions. After they realize they are a dead party slithering (not walking) a few conservatives will start to develop actual policies, rather than regurgitating the politics of the 1950s.
538 ran 40,000 simulations and the most common result was over 400 electoral votes for Biden.
There polling was garbage in all of the battleground states.
their...
That typo will keep the morons bouncing in their chairs like dumb apes for at least 3 minutes.
for the record the official 538 electoral vote prediction was
Biden 348 (actual 306)
Trump 190 (actual 232)
So yes 538 underestimated trumpist strength. But as Adult says, getting the direction right is the main thing and they nailed the direction and the ultimate result.
true that the Dems have had having trouble managing the trend started under the Trump administration of increased illegal immigration on the Southern border.
Cleaning up R messes is not always easy. But the numbers do seem to be improving recently.
Kudos to Agip for at least acknowledging the southern border is open.
kudos to Sally for claiming the moon is made of blue cheese.
That typo will keep the morons bouncing in their chairs like dumb apes for at least 3 minutes.
for the record the official 538 electoral vote prediction was
Biden 348 (actual 306)
Trump 190 (actual 232)
So yes 538 underestimated trumpist strength. But as Adult says, getting the direction right is the main thing and they nailed the direction and the ultimate result.
Everything the Libs in Congress and in the White House do is to destroy the country. They hate everything about it.
This is what people think when they don't bother to understand the other side of the argument. Everyone thinks they are doing the right thing. Democrats believe that what they are doing will help America. They aren't all sitting in a back room somewhere conniving.
I try to understand both sides of an argument. It's why I read both CNN and Fox News. But one has to be aware of when the party in power is putting politics ahead of the interests of the country. January 6th was stupid. The riots in the summer of 2020 were far worse (and if you look at the funding for those riots, you will find a lot of Democratic money. Three months of riots don't happen without financial backing). The inflation we are experiencing now is due to the party in power putting politics ahead of economics. The following is a quote from Clinton's treasury secretary and Obama's economic adviser Larry Summers immediately after the passage of the ARP (the primary impetus for the inflation we are experiencing):
"I've been very disappointed by many in the economics profession. Who feel like it's their job to judge the politics. They think this is necessary politics for the new administration. Therefore, they are going to make arguments for it economically. It may be necessary politics, and it may be that it's the right choice, but I think the better place for economists, especially those outside of government, is to be analyzing the economics not trying to rationalize the politically convenient."
The truth is Summers was right. He warned those he once worked for what the American Rescue Plan would create before it passed, and everything he warned about came to pass (other than the Fed did not react until later). The current administration put politics ahead of economics and we have had to suffer as a result.
