Early ny state xc predictions?

Monroe Woodbury and Corning both graduate only one scorer also. Maybe we could see these two teams potentially bounce back.

You literally just straight-up nailed them

Haha…he’s nothing if not predictable. Honestly Corning is about where I predicted they would be, and will probably finish the season with four in the 160s-170s and a fifth in the 150s. However the rest of the state has completely flown by them…those top 3 teams are actually very competitive with the top teams from years past. Fairport’s 15:23 is only beaten by the very good FM, Liverpool, and East Aurora squads from the 2010s. Lots of time to still improve as well. Great to see after all the crap NY has gotten recently. Northeast also looking really strong. Might shut up the people calling for a region merge.

FM has only 9 girls on the roster and had 5 speed ratings above 100 today. And 4 of them are coming back next year. Actually, they were also missing their #2 runner from last meet who is a freshman

Zariel Macchia wins the Niketown invite

live.athletic.net

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This could be true. Saratoga and Auburn both had a large 4-5 gap at McQuaid but Saratoga has a better chance of closing it since they have more depth. Also their 7th man was their #3 at VVS.

Based on last season's McQuaid -> end-of-season:

Fairport last year averaged 169.0 at McQuaid to place 1st, then 167.8 to place 4th at states, then 163.4 to place 6th at NXR. Drop of 1.2 points at states and 5.6 at regionals.

Auburn did not compete at McQuaid, but averaged 150.6 at Baldwinsville the week before and 153.6 at Manhattan the week after...call it an even split at 152.1. They followed that with a 155.4 average at states for 7th place, and a 156.8 for 7th at NXR. Improvement of 3.3 points at states and 4.7 at regionals.

Saratoga averaged a 166.4 to place 3rd at McQuaid, and ended the season with a 167.0 at states for 5th place and a 165.2 at NXR for another 5th. Improvement of 0.6 points at states and drop of 1.2 points at regionals.

Ithaca averaged an even 160.0 at McQuaid. They failed to qualify for states, and unfortunately did not compete at regionals. However, they did run a 158.4 average in losing to Corning at sectionals, and a 152.0 average at the Federation meet. That was a drop of 1.6 points at sectionals, and 8.0 points at Bowdoin.

This year Fairport averaged 174.4, Auburn 172.6, Saratoga 170.8, and Ithaca 169.8. Based on last year's progression, we can expect Fairport to be averaging 168-173 at championship meets, Auburn 175-177, Saratoga 170-171, and Ithaca 162-168. This would project Auburn to be champs in November, and a top 10 national contender.

Another way to look at it is a margin-of-victory (or relative progression) trend.. Fairport came into the season with a 4.8-point gap on Saratoga, 5.4 on Auburn, and 6.0 on Ithaca. That has now been reduced to 3.6, 1.8, and 4.6, with Auburn leapfrogging Saratoga in improvement and massively closing the gap on Fairport. Obviously there is a lot of difference between a year's improvement and two months, but if Auburn could continue that trend they should be able to surpass Fairport by a couple of points and once again be champions.

Obviously the most straightforward approach is naively based on their last performance, but I think it's fun to include some pattern decomposition and see how that could affect projections. One thing is for sure, I am going to stop underrating Auburn and now consider them odds-on favorites for the Class A title and an NXN berth.

Where do you think St Anthony’s would have placed at McQuaid?

Outside the top 5. Their weak 4-5 would’ve been disastrous at that meet specifically. No team in the top 5 had a 5th man below 160. No team outside the top 5 had a 5th man above 160. St. Anthony’s 5th last week was 151 and that was their best of the season. They could definitely still contend for an NXN spot because they always run well at Bowdoin and that gives them more time to improve their depth, but they would’ve gotten destroyed at McQuaid.

they were also missing one of their top guys MacPherson, who should return to action sometime this month according to an article

New coach, new team, new results. Auburn and Ithaca are running very well. They will battle it out with Saratoga to lock in that second spot to NXN. Fairport posted 183, 177, 174, 170, 168, 166, 162, 160 speed ratings from McQuaid. The 166 guy ran 177 last year. 183-177-177-174-170 looks similar to the 10th place NXN Corning team last year.

Corning’s Speed ratings at NXN were 182, 175, 173, 172, 172. So Fairport is better than Corning was at every position except for #5. But that 172 that Corning ran was at NXN. So lots of time to improve

Any thoughts on Arlington?

Would have been interesting to see how they stack up against the top teams in NY at McQuaid. And that McGinn vs Green matchup

Green is good. Arlington is not.

Auburn having a new coach would make a lot of sense. Their girls have also become very competitive very quickly. They may be the next powerhouse.

Also their boys team has 3 sophs, 1 freshman, and only 1 junior in their top 8.

A couple decent runners on the modified team too

Ithaca had a coaching change sometime over the summer as well, seems like they've managed to carry the momentum they gained over outdoor. Many of the top teams in the state right now are extremely young - Saratoga returns their top 3, Ithaca graduates only their 3rd, and NR graduates literally no one; these teams could be quite competitive outside of state next year if they show similar progression since the past season.