there are two definitions of 'recession' being used
1/ two straight quarters of neg GDP growth.
and
2/ officially, the National Bureau of Econ Research declares a recession's beginning and end.
Both are used often. Both have some truth to them. This time it's very possible that we get the first and not the second. Hard to imagine a recession with ultra-low 3.6% unemployment and skyrocketing tax receipts and record corporate profits, but we may get a second quarter of 'negative GDP growth.'
personally, I think post-pandemic data are mostly off in major ways. They just don't make any sense a lot of the time. So whatever we are seeing in the data is probably off by some material margin. Times are strange, gents.