Parker Valby is going to smoke Katelyn Tuohy in the NCAA 5000

College Running

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1 year ago 05/21/2023 10:43am EDT

re: Board Reader

I'll bring this back to the NCAA women's 5000, although I was curious about 1 thing. If we assume everyone fast was doping, how can it be obvious that Barringer was clean?

Meanwhile in the ncaa, assuming all the stars make the 5k final, here are the likely winners/prs/status.

Tuohy 15:03 doubling 1500

Valby 15:20 fresh but injured

Venters 15:20 doubling 10000

Kemboi 15:20 tripling? (best guess not in 1500 final)

Roe 15:21 fresh

Chmiel 15:27 doubling 10000

Tyynismaa 15:30 fresh

Bush 15:37 fresh

The headline here will of course be doubling Touhy vs hobbling Valby. The real story may be the fresh Roe and Tyynismaa. Roe historically has been a strong closer and Tyynismaa has that 4:09 1500 speed. If these 2 manage to slip away from fatiqued competitors, it could be theirs to win.

I actually think it will play out like usual though. Valby takes it out, Touhy follows with plenty of team pacers to let her draft first 3k. Last k comes down to Valby, Roe, Tyynismaa and Touhy. Touhy despite fatigue able to close from 800 out for the win. Roe holds off charging Tyynismaa for 2nd with limping Valby sliding to 4th.

Touhy 15:25, Roe, Tyynismaa, Valby, Chmiel, Venters, Kemboi, Bush

I think 1500 is the harder one for Tuohy just due unpredictability and all the 4:09 2:04 61 speed floating around among the top 10. Some pundits have Touhy rated at 4:04 vs 4:08 field leaders. That might be a big enough gap for Touhy to control the race, but previous favorites like Hurta and Degenero settled for 2nd. I'm going to wait for a few preliminaries before predicting this one.

1 year ago 05/21/2023 10:54am EDT

re: Gator bait

Gator bait wrote:
I'll bring this back to the NCAA women's 5000, although I was curious about 1 thing. If we assume everyone fast was doping, how can it be obvious that Barringer was clean?
Meanwhile in the ncaa, assuming all the stars make the 5k final, here are the likely winners/prs/status.
Tuohy 15:03 doubling 1500
Valby 15:20 fresh but injured
Venters 15:20 doubling 10000
Kemboi 15:20 tripling? (best guess not in 1500 final)
Roe 15:21 fresh
Chmiel 15:27 doubling 10000
Tyynismaa 15:30 fresh
Bush 15:37 fresh
The headline here will of course be doubling Touhy vs hobbling Valby. The real story may be the fresh Roe and Tyynismaa. Roe historically has been a strong closer and Tyynismaa has that 4:09 1500 speed. If these 2 manage to slip away from fatiqued competitors, it could be theirs to win.
I actually think it will play out like usual though. Valby takes it out, Touhy follows with plenty of team pacers to let her draft first 3k. Last k comes down to Valby, Roe, Tyynismaa and Touhy. Touhy despite fatigue able to close from 800 out for the win. Roe holds off charging Tyynismaa for 2nd with limping Valby sliding to 4th.
Touhy 15:25, Roe, Tyynismaa, Valby, Chmiel, Venters, Kemboi, Bush
I think 1500 is the harder one for Tuohy just due unpredictability and all the 4:09 2:04 61 speed floating around among the top 10. Some pundits have Touhy rated at 4:04 vs 4:08 field leaders. That might be a big enough gap for Touhy to control the race, but previous favorites like Hurta and Degenero settled for 2nd. I'm going to wait for a few preliminaries before predicting this one.

I think you should include some others on your list who are fresh, and have run 15:30-35 this year, such as Hutchins, Dudek, Jenks, etc. Roe has not looked right. If Valby goes out at 15:20 pace from the get go I think Tuohy and the rest let her go some and then see what they feel like with 1600 to go. In the 1500 I think Tuohy runs like she did at ACC and just goes from the gun - 2:13ish at 800 and keeps pressure on saying try to stay with me. Another reason to run 5000 more conservative. Trick for her is to not get boxed in early in the 1500 heats or final.

1 year ago 05/21/2023 10:56am EDT

re: Gator bait

Left off Plourde with her 15:21. She will be a factor as well

1 year ago 05/21/2023 11:03am EDT

re: Blank231

Blank231 wrote:
Left off Plourde with her 15:21. She will be a factor as well

oops, Plourde overlooked she's also doubling, will add.

Dudek/Jenks didn't include in top 8 with thought, will be 24 in final.

Hutchins dnf last race, like Cook indoor, I'm worried.

Thanks

1 year ago 05/21/2023 11:09am EDT

re: No contest

I dont care if valby gets away with running amazing hardly running at all - I dont like her LOL. People like to flex by being like 'im this good hardly training, imagine what I was capable of if I DID try.' Classic attention whore narcissist flexing - STFU work hard and stop telling everyone about it. It's rather easy to be pretty, thin, and talented...its also not an accomplishment.

1 year ago 05/21/2023 11:10am EDT

re: Gator bait

Gator bait wrote:
Blank231 wrote:
Left off Plourde with her 15:21. She will be a factor as well
oops, Plourde overlooked she's also doubling, will add.
Dudek/Jenks didn't include in top 8 with thought, will be 24 in final.
Hutchins dnf last race, like Cook indoor, I'm worried.
Thanks

I think that may have been a pacer duty - but my memory may be off. BYU did not seem to have serious meets since mid April CA meets.

#268

This post was removed.

1 year ago 05/21/2023 11:14am EDT

LOL you sound like someone who could never get a date to the prom

#270

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1 year ago 05/21/2023 11:21am EDT

re: FastTuohy

FastTuohy wrote:
In the 1500 I think Tuohy runs like she did at ACC and just goes from the gun - 2:13ish at 800 and keeps pressure on saying try to stay with me. Another reason to run 5000 more conservative. Trick for her is to not get boxed in early in the 1500 heats or final.

Yes. The biggest challenge for Tuohy in this race is that she really has one or two ways win it, because she (likely) cannot outkick several of the others in a tactical race and if she leaves it too late it's a risk. I think its got to be wire to wire or long drive out from 1200m or so. Getting boxed in early would be a huge problem for her. She doesn't race the 1500m that often and her fastest times are from the front or solo like the ACC dmr.

If Appleton or Plourde are able to stick with her, she may be in trouble. Appleton closed the final 800m at ACCs in 2:06.77.

1 year ago 05/21/2023 11:22am EDT

re: FastTuohy

FastTuohy wrote:
Gator bait wrote:
oops, Plourde overlooked she's also doubling, will add.
Dudek/Jenks didn't include in top 8 with thought, will be 24 in final.
Hutchins dnf last race, like Cook indoor, I'm worried.
Thanks
I think that may have been a pacer duty - but my memory may be off. BYU did not seem to have serious meets since mid April CA meets.

Nope - bad memory she faded badly after 1 mile at 4:50 something

1 year ago 05/21/2023 11:23am EDT

Does race strategy really matter that much for her? I think she just needs to run like a bat out of hell and shell be ok

1 year ago 05/21/2023 11:25am EDT

re: Blank231

Blank231 wrote:
FastTuohy wrote:
Yes. The biggest challenge for Tuohy in this race is that she really has one or two ways win it, because she (likely) cannot outkick several of the others in a tactical race and if she leaves it too late it's a risk. I think its got to be wire to wire or long drive out from 1200m or so. Getting boxed in early would be a huge problem for her. She doesn't race the 1500m that often and her fastest times are from the front or solo like the ACC dmr.
If Appleton or Plourde are able to stick with her, she may be in trouble. Appleton closed the final 800m at ACCs in 2:06.77.

You are right but that race was 2:07 at 700 and I think Tuohy will go 10 seconds of so than that. Plourde was 73 from 300 to 700.

1 year ago 05/21/2023 11:30am EDT

re: FastTuohy

FastTuohy wrote:
Blank231 wrote:
Yes. The biggest challenge for Tuohy in this race is that she really has one or two ways win it, because she (likely) cannot outkick several of the others in a tactical race and if she leaves it too late it's a risk. I think its got to be wire to wire or long drive out from 1200m or so. Getting boxed in early would be a huge problem for her. She doesn't race the 1500m that often and her fastest times are from the front or solo like the ACC dmr.
If Appleton or Plourde are able to stick with her, she may be in trouble. Appleton closed the final 800m at ACCs in 2:06.77.
You are right but that race was 2:07 at 700 and I think Tuohy will go 10 seconds of so than that. Plourde was 73 from 300 to 700.

* Appleton of course in ACC

1 year ago 05/21/2023 11:32am EDT

re: Blank231

Blank231 wrote:
FastTuohy wrote:
Yes. The biggest challenge for Tuohy in this race is that she really has one or two ways win it, because she (likely) cannot outkick several of the others in a tactical race and if she leaves it too late it's a risk. I think its got to be wire to wire or long drive out from 1200m or so. Getting boxed in early would be a huge problem for her. She doesn't race the 1500m that often and her fastest times are from the front or solo like the ACC dmr.
If Appleton or Plourde are able to stick with her, she may be in trouble. Appleton closed the final 800m at ACCs in 2:06.77.

A 2:06 close would likely be very fast for Katelyn but I don’t think she’d let it go as slow as 4:14. If the first 800 is below 2:15, I think it’s Tuohy’s to take.

1 year ago 05/21/2023 12:08pm EDT

re: Blank231

Blank231 wrote:
FastTuohy wrote:
Yes. The biggest challenge for Tuohy in this race is that she really has one or two ways win it, because she (likely) cannot outkick several of the others in a tactical race and if she leaves it too late it's a risk. I think its got to be wire to wire or long drive out from 1200m or so. Getting boxed in early would be a huge problem for her. She doesn't race the 1500m that often and her fastest times are from the front or solo like the ACC dmr.
If Appleton or Plourde are able to stick with her, she may be in trouble. Appleton closed the final 800m at ACCs in 2:06.77.

I'm most interested in blazing speed and who is making prs:

Tanaka-prs every wk, Whittaker-1:59 speed, Plourde huge season of prs, Barnett-now w/Brosnan aggressive in every race, but fades. Due to bust one. Howell- always peaks right, performs in big races 2:02 speed.

Riggins/Penn/Schein-Becker/Batres/Seeland - all kind of unknowns, but fast and prs galore.

Appleton/Maatoug-proven stars not shocking to me if they ran 4:06.

This is a big group, but that's why it's wide open and all are threats to 'surprise' Touhy. This is group I'm looking to for signs of fitness in prelims.

1 year ago 05/21/2023 12:16pm EDT

re: Gator bait

Gator bait wrote:
I'm most interested in blazing speed and who is making prs:
Tanaka-prs every wk, Whittaker-1:59 speed, Plourde huge season of prs, Barnett-now w/Brosnan aggressive in every race, but fades. Due to bust one. Howell- always peaks right, performs in big races 2:02 speed.
Riggins/Penn/Schein-Becker/Batres/Seeland - all kind of unknowns, but fast and prs galore.
Appleton/Maatoug-proven stars not shocking to me if they ran 4:06.
This is a big group, but that's why it's wide open and all are threats to 'surprise' Touhy. This is group I'm looking to for signs of fitness in prelims.

Pretty much agree with this. Fascinating race this year.

We also don't really know where Tuohy is, ie if Wake Forest was an off race or not. By this point last year she had already raced the 1500m 4 times including penn relays, versus this year only once.

1 year ago 05/21/2023 1:28pm EDT

re: tuohyleaveherinthetrash

I know that’s right, beast mode! 💪🤘

1 year ago 05/21/2023 1:39pm EDT

re: Blank231

Blank231 wrote:
Gator bait wrote:
I'm most interested in blazing speed and who is making prs:
Tanaka-prs every wk, Whittaker-1:59 speed, Plourde huge season of prs, Barnett-now w/Brosnan aggressive in every race, but fades. Due to bust one. Howell- always peaks right, performs in big races 2:02 speed.
Riggins/Penn/Schein-Becker/Batres/Seeland - all kind of unknowns, but fast and prs galore.
Appleton/Maatoug-proven stars not shocking to me if they ran 4:06.
This is a big group, but that's why it's wide open and all are threats to 'surprise' Touhy. This is group I'm looking to for signs of fitness in prelims.
Pretty much agree with this. Fascinating race this year.
We also don't really know where Tuohy is, ie if Wake Forest was an off race or not. By this point last year she had already raced the 1500m 4 times including penn relays, versus this year only once.

One thing we all have to keep in mind re: Wake Forest, etc, is that Tuohy is in the middle of a training cycle. I imagine she hasn’t tapered for ANYTHING yet.

She’s running the times she has this season during a build-up phase with some racing mixed in there for sharpness, but she certainly hasn’t tapered. And she’s already #1 in both of the events she’ll be competing in during NCAA’s (and she won’t even have tapered then).

Phenomenal.

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