rekrunner wrote:
We can only guess.
Does anyone think "Tin foil"'s guess can be as good as Canova's? Seems logical to think direct experience should count more than indirect or no experience.
Who here has direct experience with helping world record holders achieve fast performances?
Who anywhere, with direct experience at producing world record holders, makes the opposite claim that EPO can still help these highly altitude trained athletes?
Even anti-doping experts (without real experience in developing performance) do not go that far, often couching their statements with words like "can" and "up to", and often more directly cautioning against projecting observations of amateur gains onto elite athlete performances.
Even without direct data, there is still a great deal we can do logically with the data and information that we already have.
We know from studies that training at altitude provides comparable performance benefits. Depending on how you count, one group of 17:00 runners improved by about 6.5% over the course of an altitude study.
The question becomes, how much further can we expect EPO to help from those who have already made significant gains from high altitude?
Logically, we can think if EPO effect as an optimization problem, rather than a maximization problem, being subject to the law of diminishing return. These are logically sound positions:
- too much EPO will create too many red-blood cells, turning the blood to syrup, hindering the free and rapid flow of oxygen to the muscles (not to mention blood clots, heart failure, and death)
- high altitude works by stimulating EPO production -- high altitude athletes are already benefiting from EPO
- we should expect the magnitude of effects that we observe in 17 minute runners to decrease for runners of significantly higher quality. By how much has not been well modelled.
The relevant experience is not Renato's experience as a coach but the experience of top athletes who have doped. Plenty have. Unless they are clueless about what they are doing - and we have no reason to think that - we can safely conclude they derived benefit from doing so. The only question is the degree of benefit.