Scary Stuff!!! wrote:
2600 bro wrote:
The stringency index is heavily distorted by school closing … which was a MASSIVE failure in the US.
I’m curious where you lived. Do you honestly think for the last year we’ve had big restrictions in the US? Walking around my town I barely even noticed things after about March of this year.
You missed the nonlinear point. The final fractions MATTER MORE. Until we are at a level where herd immunity causes R_t to fall below 1, COVID will spread more or less exponentially. Yes the growth factor changes but it’s still increasing spread. The difference between 65 and 75% can/will be the difference between a shrinking pandemic and growing on. We are on the downslope of case growth again this time thanks to restrictions and more immune population. But with 50% unvax and maybe 30% of those unvax uninfected there’s still opportunity for unrestricted spread.
Just get vaccinated and end this. It’s not that hard. All we care about at this point are hospitals filling up and the best (cheapest too!) way to prevent that is vaccination.
No, I did not miss your point, it was just not correct. The final fractions make little to no difference. I am sure 10-15% better would make a little difference, but far less than 40 to 55% or 25 to 40%. At this point I would guess the older population vaccination rates are very high in the US. I know the deaths are still predominantly older people who did not get vaccinated. This is dumb but it is what it is. Getting more and more younger people, or god forbid needing to vaccinate kids, is not going to provide substantial gains. I don't know where you are getting your data that claims the last few little bits matter more, that is just not conventional scientific thought. So this is strange considering you are trying to sound like an expert.
That said, the data is there, the US had much higher overall restrictions. Places like Denmark that you mentioned rarely even had mask restrictions; I believe they mostly had tough rules on large gatherings like concerts and bars for a brief period. Maybe you live in Texas, but most places in the US had and continue to have mask mandates, closed schools, went to remote schooling, closed or very limited restaurants, masks outside and in parks, and are now of all times considering vaccine mandates when nearly 60% of the population is vaccinated. The USA has one of the highest rates in the world yet they are unable to say, "good enough". I think that is odd while many places they were much less restrictive both fared better and are now ready to say "good enough" and recognize that collateral losses associated with not letting go of the last little bit will be much greater than the gains.
You can believe what you want, but I think I am more likely to be right in this case and I think these nations doing so are smart and will probably turn the tide for other more resistant nations. Again, it is time to say, "good enough" and move on.
I think this video best sums up where the nation is at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxLhytQ67fsYou might want to consider moving on yourself.
I dont understand why you just keep saying things you wish were true:
Denmark closed ALL bars and restaurants for OVER 4 months this year. No where. I mean NO WHERE in the US did that. Even California only quit indoor dining for ~6-8 weeks in the winter and still allowed outdoor dining!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cafes-open-denmark-covid-19-restrictions-loosen-2021-04-21/To the other point:
You really do not understand how exponential functions work, but you can bury than in 3 paragraphs of BS so...
whatever, if you are moving on I will get back to the topic at hand.