Peter Bol tests positive for EPO

those that don't believe him are keeping their mouths shut until the B test result is released.

Not sure who they are. No-one on the multiple Facebook news sites are supporting him. Anyone that has said we need to wait till get his B sample back is being ripped apart.

Look, it seems pretty damning that he has tested positive for EPO, but he hasn't really appeared "out of nowhere" from mid tier performer to Championship finalist, as you claim. For a start he's been running 1:44/1:45 consistently since 2016. That's 7 seasons! From 2016 until last year, he has only improved by 1.4secs, from 22 to 28, which doesn't appear as a red flag to me.

Secondly, highlighting his 1500m improvement from 3:42 to 3:35 in a season is a total red herring. Bol has never run a major European circuit 1500m race until last season. In the past he has only ever run the odd 1500m in low key meets early season (for Europeans at least). They were all ran in January, probably against mediocre opposition, in the 3:42 - 3:46 range. That doesn't mean that he was running at the height of his abilities at those times. His 3:35 was run in the summer in Europe, probably with a decent pace.

Had a 1500m specialist improved from 3:42 to 3:35 in a single season at age 28, then I'd agree that it would look suspicious, but in Bol's case, he is an 800m specialist who had never run in a serious 1500m in the summer until last year. I don't think that this alone in anyway confirms EPO use. Again, I am not saying I believe he hasn't taken EPO. I just don't think his career trajectory gives any clear indication that he has.

That's not true and totally irrelevant to the discussion as synthetic EPO did not exist in Coe's era. His annual progression was not irregular, certainly more 'normal' than say Kipketer or Cruz. Indeed, even Rudisha made a bigger single drop in progression from 1 season to the next (1.71 secs).

Coe: - 20 - 1:44.95

21 - 1:43.97

22 - 1:42.33

23 - 1:44.7

24 - 1:41.77

An improvement of 3.22 secs over 5 seasons, and a single improvement of 1.64 secs in pb from 1 season to next.

Kipketer (N.B DOB used to be given as 12.12.70, but more commonly given as 12.12.72 now!): - 19 - 1:45.62

20 - 1:45.46

21 - 1:43.29

22 - 1:42.87

23 - 1:41.83

24 - 1:41.11

An improvement of 4.35 secs over 5 seasons, and a single improvement of 2.17 secs in pb from 1 season to next.

Cruz: - 18 - 1:44.3

19 - 1:46.95

20 - 1:44.04

21 - 1:41.77

A single improvement of 2.27 secs in pb from 1 season to next.

I’m just going to note in that study that getting popped most often occurs between 2-6 days. Within 2 days is highly possible, but after 7 days you are in the clear. The truth is we have no idea when Bol’s potential doping occurs. Perhaps it’s been for years, or maybe after being so close to a breakthrough (CG title, Olympic/World medal) in 2021-22 at age 29 he decided it was now or never.

But the point being if the B comes positive, it is likely the drugs were administered in October of 2022. It’s pretty much a fool’s errand for someone with a progression as methodical as Bol to presume when he “started” doping. But when he was caught doping, pending the B sample, we can reasonably assert. Now World Athletics may be privy to more ABP data that gives them a greater estimation of when his values may have first become suspect (if that did happen).

Seems he is well liked and highly thought of by his peers

"Look, it seems pretty damning that he has tested positive for EPO, but he hasn't really appeared "out of nowhere" from mid tier performer to Championship finalist, as you claim. For a start he's been running 1:44/1:45 consistently since 2016. That's 7 seasons! From 2016 until last year, he has only improved by 1.4secs, from 22 to 28, which doesn't appear as a red flag to me."

Yeah well, you're right, but you're ignoring one thing, maybe the frustration of only improving "1.4secs, from 22 to 28" is why he started on the juice, to get to the next level before age, etc catches up with him. Also, maybe the plan was to step up to the 1500, another reason to get a bit of a boost.

Also, the red flag hasn't appeared because he got pinged before it had a chance to flutter.

All assuming the B sample comes up positive of course.

The likes of Kiprop and Bol probably have been doping all their careers, but they finally get caught when they become a bit more desperate and reckless with the juicing. This seems more plausible than athletes suddenly deciding to dope in their late 20's.

Not to mention it’s improbable an athlete would get busted for EPO in competition. Since you know you have 6 days, you stop administration a week before competitions. So you have to be good enough to warrant OOC testing to begin with, which might not happen for many athletes in their formative years. No idea on Kiprop, it would be good to have full access to his ABP and testing history.

Good point. Perhaps he finished the 2022 season clean and decided he's not getting any quicker. Personally I don't think it happened this way, I think if he did dope, it started a few years back.

He had run under 1.45 twice prior to 2021. Once in 2018 1.44.56 and once in 2020 1.44.96.

In the Olympic year of 2021 he ran under 1.45 6 times and twice more in 2022.

In the article it says he cannot train or race at any level. How can someone who is suspended for PEDs be prevented from training?

article out today

smh.com.au

‘It hurts’: Bol says he is a victim of ‘flawed system’

Michael Gleeson

Australian Olympian Peter Bol believes he is the victim of a flawed and unfair anti-doping system, pleading his innocence and asking people not to rush to judge him.

Link:www.smh.com.au/sport/athletics/it-hurt...

Actually, both would kind of apply, wouldn't they, and especially the latter.

In tennis this past year, during the U.S. Open in September, former world number #1 Simona Halep tested positive for a PED (Roxadustat) and is banned (perhaps up to 4 years); it was in both her A and B samples.

She was world number #1 back in 2017 and 2018 or thereabouts. Won the French Open and won Wimbledon.

She's 31 now and getting towards the tail end of chances of winning major tournaments, and low and behold, she gets popped.

She has a career prize money total of over $40 million dollars, so surely she was doing it just to still have a chance at winning another slam or something and not necessarily for the money (and she was one of those "hard workers" and "everyone liked her" kind of people).

I would be surprised if she were doping her entire career because tennis doesn't really have a doping problem, but it does happen from time to time.

Either way, a track runner getting up there in age for their event and starting to dope and getting popped isn't too crazy sounding.

Of course, in the abstract, unfortunate if he did dope, but it happens.

Yes, that's exactly what I'm trying to evoke. There does seem to be a lot of pointless speculation in the thread because we don't know exactly how they adjust their detection threshold to minimize false positives. In most medical tests, you want to eliminate as many false negatives as possible because a false positive, while it is anxiety-provoking, leads to further testing. False negatives can be much more deadly.

Here, you have the opposite. False negatives are ineffective for testing, but false positives damage credibility and cause a lot more turmoil.

This actually comes up a lot in machine learning too.

Bol is outraged by the EPO allegations...Say's he was taking testosterone, not EPO.

There’s a claim here that they showed 5 bands and only 1 is problematic:

“Based on my experience that is a very close call for a positive test,” said Greene, who is head of Global Sports Advocates. “But we have not seen the lab results, we only have the summary sheet and we won’t get the full lab results until after the B sample results are back and that will be months.”

So this is why we have the B sample and further review. His side is also pushing for the other type of testing shown in the study I linked before. We will see, but I presume they’ll allow it.

It is NOT humanly possible to run 1:43 without drugs! And for any supporters of his “innocence”, artificial EPO is only injected into the body.

LOL. Greene, Shelburrito's lawyer... No wonder Bol sounds like her ("I’m innocent, so the process is flawed. And I feel this anti-doping system is flawed.").