Disappointed at NYC Marathon--Should I go back-to-back?

I'm just impressed he's keeping track of wind speed in his log for the past few years. I don't even log temps unless they're really abnormal.

outsiderunner wrote:

Just did my last pre-race run. Just a little four-miler and it felt good. Nice day for running, with very little wind. Wind conditions look even worse for Sunday...forecast now predicting 28 mph. I do not even know if I have run in wind that strong. I would have to check my log, but probably 22 or maybe 25 is the strongest I have faced in a training run. All I can remember about such a run was that I could barely breathe and it seemed a waste of time.

This is very helpful--thanks. I run on gravel occasionally.

So, I should try to stay on the dirt, right? This is what I was thinking anyway. Dirt, as long as it is dry, just feels better.

The more information, the better. It comes in handy in this type of situation, and in regard to injuries, too.

Voice of reason wrote:

Also outsiderunner and angry Johnny are obviously the same IP addresses.

Incorrect, though as a recovering running addict I have enjoyed passing the time first advising against and then, when it became clear he wasn't going to listen, supporting outsiderunner in doing what many people say he shouldn't. Outside runner has guts. I can respect that.

Angryjohnny wrote:

Voice of reason wrote:

Also outsiderunner and angry Johnny are obviously the same IP addresses.

Incorrect, though as a recovering running addict I have enjoyed passing the time first advising against and then, when it became clear he wasn't going to listen, supporting outsiderunner in doing what many people say he shouldn't. Outside runner has guts. I can respect that.

And if it comes down to a pure guts race at the end, outsiderunner is the only one who can win it.

outsiderunner wrote:

Dirt, as long as it is dry, just feels better.

Seems like you know what to expect. I happened to think of your upcoming race as I picked stones out of my shoe treads this evening, so I decided to chime in.

Regarding wind, I once ran a point-to-point marathon with a steady 20 mph headwind. I PR'ed that day ... but had the advantage of running in a group to help break the wind. I really hope there's at least one other guy you can tuck behind on Sunday.

BTW, that windy PR was my second marathon in five weeks, and I PR'ed again the following month (2:47, 2:45, 2:40). But I was only 23, and even back then I doubt I could have managed with just TWO weeks between races! Or even three ...

But I respect your courage, and am rooting for you!

You remind me of someone... it'll come to me in a minute...

... oh yea...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eMkth8FWno&feature=youtu.be&t=140

Good one--Kevin52.

I wish I were in a better mood this morning. I just could not sleep last night, tossed and turned until about 4:00 am, and the experts say that the night two nights prior to the race is the most important for good sleep. And now a gale-force warning has been issued for the DC area.

The story about the PR in a 20 mph headwind is amazing--bravo to you, sir. I am uncertain as to whether I will be able to run with someone, as it is a small race. Even so, I tend to prefer a pack rather than one other runner, as it seems to work better that way--in terms of pace, too. In a marathon, I do not like running off of someone else's pace. I really want to run my own race tomorrow...but beggars cannot be choosers.

Right now, rest is just as critical. I do not know what happened last night.

Here we go again.

Didn't get enough sleep. Excuse #44.

Keep 'em coming.

After checking the latest forecast, it appears Mother Nature is forcing you to make the more prudent decision: Find a marathon a few weeks from now, even if it means traveling. A 28mph crosswind/tailwind for the first half, then in-your-face for the entire second half?! Crazy to attempt it with a time-goal in mind. As an adventure run, it could be fun and challenging ... but not two weeks after NYC ... and I doubt that sort of mindset would be your style! In any case, best wishes.

Not sure if I'm missing something, but OP is purportedly doing the Potomac River Run Marathon. It's a double out and back - he'll have a tailwind for first and third parts, and a headwind for the second and fourth parts.

After reading some more, including this bit about hoping to find a group to work with, I'm leaning in the troll direction for the first time. If you are truly running this race tomorrow and aiming for sub-3, then you know that there is little to no hope of finding a pack running that pace in this race, given past results.

(top three times in this race last year: 2:50, 3:00, 3:13).

There is a person from Virginia in the NYC marathon results with the times/splits reported by the OP, but that doesn't necessarily mean that person is the OP, as we've discussed before. It will be interesting to see whether that same name appears in the results for tomorrow's race (which will not be available for a few days, most likely).

I am not a troll, darkwave. I am well aware of the 2:50, 3:00, and 3:13, and it concerns me. I did not say I would find a group to work with. All I said was that a group works better than just one other person. If you look through the the results, you will see some more variety, even times in the 2:30s. I think I saw a 2:34 in there in past results. So, it is not imposssible that I might find someone running a similar pace, but I doubt it would be more that one or two people.

Just to clear the air...If you look hard enough, you can also find me in another SHF race, a 10k. I ran a 10k under the same RD, and I liked the way the race was run, which is another reason for choosing the Potomac. Jay seems like a nice guy, and his events are friendly. The 10k was a small race, and I placed in the top 10.

All I can say I that I am sitting here watching college football, and can see the conditions through the window. The wind is coming in hard, with leaves swirling around in the air. I am human, and so I am concerned.

Outside-

Use some common sense, already. You need to skip this race.

The whole point was to take advantage of your fitness to run a PR, and specifically break 3, right?

With the conditions on hand, there is no chance of your doing either. And that's even assuming that everyone here was wrong, and you *could* actually give a peak performance just two weeks after a max-effort marathon where your body broke down substantially.

Even if they were totally wrong, and you were totally right (which is highly unlikely), there is no chance in hell that you'll run faster than last week, in 25-mph winds.

The absolute best you could realistically hope for in these circumstances is that maybe you manage a 3:06 or 3:08 or something (and even that seems pretty unlikely) --and what the hell would that accomplish?

You'd prove you could run surprisingly fast in extremely adverse conditions --which you already proved two weeks ago-- but you'd still be way short of your goal, and, obviously, it would be a lot *slower* than the race you're trying to 'make up for.'

And there's a pretty good chance you'll really wreck your body in the process.

Running this race tomorrow is pretty much the definition of asinine, at this point.

You need to face reality, use your intellect a little, and exercise some discretion over mindless valor and inertia. (The inertia coming in because you've already decided to do this, even though it obviously makes no sense, and have convinced yourself you have to follow through on that decision no matter what.)

You've got several alternative options that make decent sense.

This one makes none whatsoever.

Use your head, and do the smart thing.

(Or, if you really prefer, be a pig-headed idiot and do the stupid thing,... just so you can tell yourself you're some kind of 'rugged individualist' who 'doesn't take NO for an answer,' and other assorted bulls**t rationales.)

Good luck. I hope the smart guy in your head wins,... but I know he probably won't.

What if Tom Brady listened to all the people that said a 6th round pick can't be the GOAT? Criticism is fuel. All good things come with a chip on the shoulder.

sp2: you have made the case better than anyone one. Certainly, your argument makes sense. Of course I realize that the conditions are not good for a sub-3 or a PR. I am very disappointed that this stupid weather front has come in. My wife just told me that it has dropped 10 degrees in the past hour. The wind, though, is the real issue.

When I registered, the weather forecast looked good. This is the windiest I have seen it in a long while, perhaps all year.

If I sit this one out, it will be another year before I have a shot...not interested in doing the spring marathon thing (have already said why more than once).

darkwave wrote:

It's a double out and back - he'll have a tailwind for first and third parts, and a headwind for the second and fourth parts.

You are correct. I misread the map on my little phone screen! Maybe it was the half marathon map ... said simply "out and back."

outsiderunner wrote:

sp2: you have made the case better than anyone one. Certainly, your argument makes sense. Of course I realize that the conditions are not good for a sub-3 or a PR. I am very disappointed that this stupid weather front has come in. My wife just told me that it has dropped 10 degrees in the past hour. The wind, though, is the real issue.

When I registered, the weather forecast looked good. This is the windiest I have seen it in a long while, perhaps all year.

If I sit this one out, it will be another year before I have a shot...not interested in doing the spring marathon thing (have already said why more than once).

Sorry if I was a little harsh, but it seemed like you really needed a stiff shot of cold reality.

There's no point to running tomorrow. No good will come of it, and there could be some serious bad.

You should bag it, and then reevaluate. (Maybe consider an early-winter race if you can find a suitable one.)

I wish you the best, regardless.

One other point: considering your history, it's not at all impossible you could be a bunch faster at 50 than you are now.

It's just silly to make decisions based on thinking, 'this is the only shot I'll ever have.'

First off, it's probably not true,... and second, even if it was true, the decision it led you to just doesn't make any sense anyway.

Good luck.

outsiderunner wrote:

In regard to Sunday's race, I really have nothing to lose. I am going in with no pressure, and if I do not feel good I can always adjust my race plan.

Six pages and much handwringing later this^^^ is still true.

No problem, spa, and no offense taken.

I appreciate your sensible words. Yes, I could perhaps be better at age 50, but I do not know. I think the main thing people perhaps do not understand is that, yes, NYC is a tougher course than Richmond, but for me it should have been about 1:45 tougher (as one poster has pointed out). So, running 2:22 slower at NYC seems (on the surface) to be OK...but what is being missed here is that I am in better shape than I was last year. I suffered a lot in the summer heat, was much better in the long runs, and was better in workouts, too. Thus, to not at least PR at NYC was disappointing.

So, perhaps I will continue to improve, as you suggest. Perhaps...