Pre season top 20 cross country list (Women)

wow

"The way Smith [of Ok St] sees it, he has a team that is capable of scoring under 100 points on a great day at nationals. That may not be enough to beat NC State, but if OK State runs its best race and NC State does not, he sees a path to victory."

I don't see that - way too many other good runners for me to see Ok St averaging 20th thru 5 runners. Top 2 10-15 means the next 3 have to be in mid 20s. NAU looks like a much stronger team to me right now. But I guess he has to have optimism.

I've been wondering about Hertenstein...

"There were some likely varsity people not ready,” Wetmore said when asked about the absences at UVA. “We are working on that. Some will make it back. It looks like some won’t.”

Judy Kosgei just won the Paul Short Run in 19:54, freshman Hannah Prosser 2nd in 19:59

I can't speak to race conditions, but last year Everlyn Kemboi of Utah Valley won in 19:33 with 18 under 20:00. Runners seem to run about 25 s faster there then they did at Nationals in Stillwater.

Any thoughts on lsu?

I might try to add that 15:03 manually later today.

The algorithm weighs the best two performances, so that Joe Piane result will probably disappear if she runs better later.

By the way, the order in which the teams appear in the table is based on the average rating of their top 5. I list it as “pseudo-rank.” To really rank the teams you should click the “simulate” button on the top right of the league page, then simulate a race.

I’ve probably still got some runners who have graduated in there. In a week or so I’m going to take out the runners who haven’t raced yet.

-Bijan

Pretty muddy there today. Kosgei is the real deal.

So, will Florida finally debut their scoring squad at Nuttycombe? I bet they run Asekol, Mazza Downie, Thorner atleast. But, will they run Valby?

It seems like they should if they are looking to podium at Nats, so they can get experience as a team against the field. Some of their biggest competition will be present (NC st, Stanford, Colorado, NAU).

Based on the limited # of races so far, some adjustments (note FL and OK St have not raced most of their top runners yet). Presumes Tyynismaa and Bush make it back but not to top form. I've taken Hertenstein, Starliper, Cook and Riggs out until I see them run.

1a - NC State – Tuohy, Chmiel, in top 10,Tyynismaa and Bush ~25, Stephens~35 for ~100 points. If no Tyynismaa, Hartman ~55 so would add ~30 points.

1b -Northern Arizona – Stearns 5-10, Larkin and Reiss 15-20,
Smee 25-30, Moore (or someone)~40 for ~110 points
2a – Florida – Valby top 5, Mazza-Downie 10-15, Asekol ~25,
Thorner~40, Donnelly or Wilson ~100 for ~180 points
2b- Oklahoma State – Roe and Jepkuir ~15, Hentemann ~35,
Born ~50, Galvydyte ~60 for ~190 points (Smith apparently thinks his 3-5 can score much better tho!)
5a – Stanford – Bunnage ~15, Jenks 40-45, Dudek and Connelly (based on 1 race) ~60,
Kennedy/Stewert ~75 for ~250 points
5a – Colorado – Covert ~15, Baran ~30, Baloga ~40, Dishon ~60 (until she shows more),
Doucette ~ 115 (unless I missed someone) for ~260 points. A lot of upside if some of the injured make it back

Then the following seem close
Virginia, Georgetown, BYU (I still don't see them as top 5)

Then Notre Dame, UNC

Apparently no Van Camp for Arkansas, UNC not looking as strong

It seems unlikely that Tuohy or Tyynismaa will run, so then it could be Chmiel (10), Stephens(35) Bush(37), Hartman(55), Quarzo (56). NAU may win. I have Bush lower because she doesn't seem to be fully healthy.

Meant to say Chmiel in top 10. I think she could likely finish #2 behind Valby.

I’m not surprised that they’re using tuohy sparingly this last xc season as she has bigger things to focus on for when she moves on after nc state after this year, the team is deep enough to take care of business when she doesn’t race and she personally has nothing else to prove!!

I don't understand why Bush's name is even mentioned anymore. She hasn't done anything since December. Couldn't manage any better than 5th at indoor ACCs and went from 6th (2022) to 9th (2023) in indoor NCAAs. Only ran 2 or three races outdoors and they both were poor, and her time at Piane was over a minute slower than last year. She was the #8 runner at Piane when you add in Napoleon from the Open race and that does not include Tuohy or Tyynismaa. She is currently barely in their top-10. They might let her run NCAAs as the #7 runner because she is a senior and she won't factor into the scoring.

I was not pretending to make a Nuttycombe prediction. The NCAA championship is 45 days or so away.

I have less certainty than you. In Hene's words, if the top 4 are healthy they are better than last year. Since Bush is running, I assume she will improve over the next 7 weeks.

in the corrections department, I see I overlooked Sadie Sargent is still running for BYU this year (even tho she ran in 2018 (NCAA Championship), 2019 (NCAA Championship, 2021 (Nuttycombe), 2022 (NCAA Championship)!). Apparently they wiped 2021 off the boards? Inserting her I get BYU dangerously close to top 5 with (I think) weakened Colorado and Stanford teams.

byucougars.com

Sadie Sargent - Women's Cross Country 2023

Sadie Sargent - Women's Cross Country 2023

Link:byucougars.com/sports/womens-cross-cou...

The Stride Report updated today...not so much love for NAU with Stearns at 4, but Larkin 25, Reiss 34, Smee and Moore>50 implying well over 160 points vs NC St rankings Tuohy 1, Chmiel 5, Tyynismaa 9, Stephens 32, Bush 46 for < 100 points. I think the teams are much closer (per above). Stephens ran great, but so did Noe is who is ranked 50 and Baloga who is > 50.

If Tyynismaa and Bush are not healthy NAU has a good shot to topple NC State. Even Florida.

On the individual side, I think they are sleeping on Kosgei.