Official 2021 D3 XC Thread

I just looked at UCSC's results on TFRRS to see if they have a legit grip and they literally did not beat a good team all season. And they were dire at Pre-Nats. So their only case is that they were distance third in a weak region (after the top 2 teams). Doesn't cut it.

Worcester Poop Institute wrote:

WPI and Amherst both making it is a complete joke. They both lost to GEORGE FOX at the Conn Invite (WPI lost by 50, Amherst by 87). I heard Amherst men had food poisoning before the conn invite but still, they haven't run well all year. Then, George Fox lost to UCSC at regionals and somehow neither of the west teams get bids but both Amherst and WPI do? Are you kidding me? Amherst athletic department should write USCS an apology note and write George Fox a check to cover their airfare from oregon to connecticut. They clearly flew there to race out of region teams, beat the out of region teams and somehow the west got shown zero love at all. You're only going to take the two teams out of the west who are top 5 in the country? The northeast/NESCAC bias is astounding.

UCSC might have gotten in if they still had the jacked banana slug logo

Alex Phillip will not win if it rains on Thursday because he does not know how to swim. He would simply sink into the mud, never to be heard from again. Tell me I'm wrong.

Looks like course won't be too wet/muddy, gonna get some rain on thursday but think it's been pretty dry lately (can anyone in louisville area confirm?) which probably helps Aidan Ryan and Alex Phillips against Tyler Morris who seems to be a real xc guy

justcurious wrote:

No one talking about the fact that NCC is looking like a team that is going to get 10-15th??? With how good they have been the last decade+, that is a big drop off

It looks like their third man (Higueros) didn't run at Regionals. Anyone know if he'll be back at Nationals? I don't think they're likely to podium with or without Higueros, but he could conceivably impact their finish substantially (I'd guess it cost them 15-20 points at Regionals and probably would/will cost them more than that at Nationals).

I believe he ran that 24:27 with ease, but 5.12 miles or not- that time is not impressive. There were several kids who broke 25 for the first time this season on that course. Phillip's 23:3X is the only time he has had close competition, so that is his benchmark. Aidan Ryan's 23:5X at conn college is roughly equal. Tyler Morris' 24:38 at franklin park with sub-par conditions is also in that ballpark. Any of these 3 guys can win, but I can guarantee Tyler Morris isn't going to flake, he's going to run from the front, and he's going to make them hurt.

I agree with other posters that the good conditions should play into Ryan's hands, as he has shown he is a track guy. He can sit and kick on Morris but I don't see a race where he gaps him.

Observant observer wrote:

justcurious wrote:

No one talking about the fact that NCC is looking like a team that is going to get 10-15th??? With how good they have been the last decade+, that is a big drop off

It looks like their third man (Higueros) didn't run at Regionals. Anyone know if he'll be back at Nationals? I don't think they're likely to podium with or without Higueros, but he could conceivably impact their finish substantially (I'd guess it cost them 15-20 points at Regionals and probably would/will cost them more than that at Nationals).

Sounds like you must be Higueros

Anyone have updates on MIT's Mekbib? If he's cleared to race, seems like he'd be at least a top 5, if not title contender. He clearly has the chops with that 2:10 marathon PB, but haven't seen any results from him this season.

Looks like Mekbib is just one of many people who wear MIT gear but don't actually attend the school. It's a common problem for those Cambridge schools.

justcurious wrote:

No one talking about the fact that NCC is looking like a team that is going to get 10-15th??? With how good they have been the last decade+, that is a big drop off

That's because no one is surprised. As sad as it is, without Carius really involved, there's no way they're going to keep up the past success. He was that program. It's pretty clear the new guy has no idea what he's doing.

downfallalreadyhappening21 wrote:

justcurious wrote:

No one talking about the fact that NCC is looking like a team that is going to get 10-15th??? With how good they have been the last decade+, that is a big drop off

That's because no one is surprised. As sad as it is, without Carius really involved, there's no way they're going to keep up the past success. He was that program. It's pretty clear the new guy has no idea what he's doing.

if WashU could get 4th last time then NCC can definitely podium on Saturday. I won't count them out, especially considering the sheer number of choke artists ranked ahead of them.

I agree

middlingbury wrote:

if WashU could get 4th last time then NCC can definitely podium on Saturday. I won't count them out, especially considering the sheer number of choke artists ranked ahead of them.

Middlingbury- Please explain who these choke artists are. There are several teams ahead of NCC depending on the poll you choose, but most have them ranked about 11-12th. Of the teams ahead of them, most are populated by runners who weren't around 2 years ago to compete at nationals. For instance, MIT only has 3 or 4 returners (depending on lineup), Williams only has 2, Pomona has a bunch but they won in 2019, so I doubt you would consider them chokers, and Wartburg won track nats last year, so I don't think I would say they choke either. So who are all these runners and teams that don't perform well at nationals, and how do they in any way correlate to the race on Saturday? So please let us know which of the 8 teams ahead of NCC are going to choke.

downfallalreadyhappening21 wrote:

justcurious wrote:

No one talking about the fact that NCC is looking like a team that is going to get 10-15th??? With how good they have been the last decade+, that is a big drop off

That's because no one is surprised. As sad as it is, without Carius really involved, there's no way they're going to keep up the past success. He was that program. It's pretty clear the new guy has no idea what he's doing.

Frank is "the new guy?" is someone else coaching them?

they may have had the (roughly) 10th best season so far, but of course they can podium. everyone there knows what they're doing.

Dion Marquise Hayes will win the DIII championship after he wins the DI championship

After looking at this past weekends regional results I just don't understand how you can pick anyone but John Carroll's Alex Phillip. He strutted across the line like a young, strong stallion. When the gun goes off on Saturday Phillip is going to take the lead and not give it up. Morris will try to compete and will be dropped with 1.5k to go. The same will happen to Ryan and Freiberger with 2k to go. As for fellow OAC competitor Simon Hayes, he will go out in the back of the lead pack with intentions to move up, but will ultimately fail to do so. All in all, this is a race for 2nd place and you can't argue that. Look for Phillip to casually cruise the last 200m with a comfortable 15-20 second lead.

^ Dion Marquise Hayes will beat Alex Phillip by a minute

932pizzax wrote:

downfallalreadyhappening21 wrote:

That's because no one is surprised. As sad as it is, without Carius really involved, there's no way they're going to keep up the past success. He was that program. It's pretty clear the new guy has no idea what he's doing.

Frank is "the new guy?" is someone else coaching them?

they may have had the (roughly) 10th best season so far, but of course they can podium. everyone there knows what they're doing.

Yeah, Grammafario. Carius is mostly retired.