this thread has become BORING
So I am back to my old ways!
My Def of Age Grading: The measurement of our rate of decline(RofD) as we age.
IMO age grading is not a shoulda coulda woulda looking backwards. IOW a 95 at 65 does not equate to a 95 percent prime time performance.
However it is useful somewhat accurate for forward looking for setting goals for looking at your RATE OF DECLINE.
But there are other variables. One we all know all too well, the 10 year carrot.
Colleen Milliman W96 is a great example of a ~100 percenter who seems to be declining at a SLOWER rate. Heck her mid d times at 96 are just a tad slower than she ran at 90....SCRATCH. Oops why is this? Because she only started training hard in her late 80s. She is still chasing the 10 year carrot we all chased .
My RofD is about as exciting as watching paint dry. Mid 80s with a few oh so close to 90 when I was obsessed enough to do maniacal training .
I am interested in 2 groups of old farts. The stinky boring farts vs rose farts.
Five percent ALARM
A sudden 5 percent or greater sudden improvement seemingly out of no where, stinks. I could go on but won't. Probably just jealousy on my part right;)
The roses
Runners who have found something useful that is "legal". No I do not give a rats arse about doping in fact I would like to see USADA and WADA go the way of other totalitarian regimes. Again I can explain why these enforcers of arbitrary PEDs promote cheating. But I digress.
So we get to my primary interest in RofD :
Can we use Age Grade Percents to predict RofD
Makes for a nice study using data from worldmasters.com.
age grading factors
I prefer a simple method:
Delta Open World Record and Age Group World Record.
These are the only data points that are rock solid. The math is simple.
Open 100 percent is current Open WR.
Age 100 percent is current 5 year Age Group WR.
Sarcastic Solace for us also rans. World Records are easy if you out live your competition