Good choices, how about California #3 or Plainfield South?
Where Plainfield South beat Plainfield North this year: - Southwest Prairie Conference Championships - Palatine Meet of Champions Invitational - Plainfield XC City Championship
admittedly i'm a SE guy so i pay the most attention to the region, but i feel like Noah Valyo is being a bit undervalued. He didn't have the times last track season like a lot of these other guys but he's clearly leveled up this XC season. Ethan Edgeworth has the 7th fastest speed rating on Tully this year and Valyo just dumped him by 8 seconds (all over the last ~1k at NXR SE.
To be clear i'm not saying he can/will beat Danny Simmons, but it feels like he's a guy not even being considered for top 5 when he should be.
admittedly i'm a SE guy so i pay the most attention to the region, but i feel like Noah Valyo is being a bit undervalued. He didn't have the times last track season like a lot of these other guys but he's clearly leveled up this XC season. Ethan Edgeworth has the 7th fastest speed rating on Tully this year and Valyo just dumped him by 8 seconds (all over the last ~1k at NXR SE.
To be clear i'm not saying he can/will beat Danny Simmons, but it feels like he's a guy not even being considered for top 5 when he should be.
If Riverton doesn't get an at-large, then I could see the SW getting 2 at-large individual spots, but both of those would be Riverton guys, so you bump into Riverton being good enough upfront to be competitive in a big meet.
Ghiz (Riverton) is already an auto individual qualifier. IF Riverton doesn't get an at-large, but the SW gets 2 at-large individuals, those would be Brunner (Battle Mountain) and Ludwig (Riverton). Personally, I think Riverton will get in and Brunner gets bumped to one of the five individual qualifiers.
Good list. I go with Noonan and I like JoJo Jourdon as a dark horse.
The nxr races can be a bit hard to evaluate, as some of the runners use them as heats. Obviously, they have to go hard, but if there's a clear gap with 800 to go they don't bust it to the line.
If Riverton doesn't get an at-large, then I could see the SW getting 2 at-large individual spots, but both of those would be Riverton guys, so you bump into Riverton being good enough upfront to be competitive in a big meet.
Ghiz (Riverton) is already an auto individual qualifier. IF Riverton doesn't get an at-large, but the SW gets 2 at-large individuals, those would be Brunner (Battle Mountain) and Ludwig (Riverton). Personally, I think Riverton will get in and Brunner gets bumped to one of the five individual qualifiers.
That's my thought. Riverton gets in, Brunner becomes an individual qualifier, and then the at-larges shift to other regions bc the SW will have 26 runners at that point and the next two individuals don't have incredible credentials outside of their finishes at the NXR region.
IF Niwot does get an at-large, there's absolutely no way in my mind the SW gets an at-large individual spot at all.
My current picks for at-large spots are Riverton, Austin Vandegrift, Franklin, and Plainfield South or Rocky in that order. Niwot was just so far back at their meet. While a great resume can help push you over the top as an at-large, it can't hide a terrible regional meet.
Unfortunately, Niwot doesn't even have a great resume. Their big win at the 4A state meet was over the team that got 11th at Liberty Bell. The team they dominated at Desert Twilight was 6th in the Colorado 5A state meet and 26th at NXR SW. The team that got 4th was the 10th place team at the Texas 6A state meet and got 14th at NXR South. The third place team did win the Division 1 Arizona state champs, but their runners went 8-10-18-26-30-38-46 and are 4:21/9:18, 4:27/9:39, 4:22/9:37, 4:38/10:03, 4:45/9:59, 2:09/5:02, and a 42.24 300mh/2:17 guy. Decent for 1-5, but zero depth beyond that and got 27th at NXR SW.
If you told me that a team finished 99 points out of qualifying in their NXR region in 4th place, beat one team all year prior to NXR that finished in the top 10 in their region, and one of their marquee wins were over the teams that finished in 14th, 26th, and 27th at their regions, I would say that team has zero shot of being an at-large.
Once California runs, Rocky and Plainfield South will get pushed out. Rocky didn't travel out of state but at least has wins in season over Dana Hills (even if they weren't down a runner, Rocky still would have beat them no matter where he finished), Trabuco Hills, Seattle Prep, Star Valley, and multiple wins over Boise (Boise's #1/2 DNF'd at NXR NW, they would have been 5th with him finishing).
I think it's clear that this year, certain states just dominated their regions, and some value should be placed on teams running well within their own state.
Utah dominated the SW. Illinois dominated the MW. Idaho was the dominant state in the NW. Texas was the dominant state in the South.
Colorado and Washington ended up looking way weaker than I anticipated. Even Oregon didn't look that great.
Oregon had 6 of the top 20 runners at NXR NW. Washington had 3. Montana had 1, Wyoming had 3, and Idaho had 7. For the population distributions of those states, that's awful.
Ghiz (Riverton) is already an auto individual qualifier. IF Riverton doesn't get an at-large, but the SW gets 2 at-large individuals, those would be Brunner (Battle Mountain) and Ludwig (Riverton). Personally, I think Riverton will get in and Brunner gets bumped to one of the five individual qualifiers.
That's my thought. Riverton gets in, Brunner becomes an individual qualifier, and then the at-larges shift to other regions bc the SW will have 26 runners at that point and the next two individuals don't have incredible credentials outside of their finishes at the NXR region.
IF Niwot does get an at-large, there's absolutely no way in my mind the SW gets an at-large individual spot at all.
My current picks for at-large spots are Riverton, Austin Vandegrift, Franklin, and Plainfield South or Rocky in that order. Niwot was just so far back at their meet. While a great resume can help push you over the top as an at-large, it can't hide a terrible regional meet.
Unfortunately, Niwot doesn't even have a great resume. Their big win at the 4A state meet was over the team that got 11th at Liberty Bell. The team they dominated at Desert Twilight was 6th in the Colorado 5A state meet and 26th at NXR SW. The team that got 4th was the 10th place team at the Texas 6A state meet and got 14th at NXR South. The third place team did win the Division 1 Arizona state champs, but their runners went 8-10-18-26-30-38-46 and are 4:21/9:18, 4:27/9:39, 4:22/9:37, 4:38/10:03, 4:45/9:59, 2:09/5:02, and a 42.24 300mh/2:17 guy. Decent for 1-5, but zero depth beyond that and got 27th at NXR SW.
If you told me that a team finished 99 points out of qualifying in their NXR region in 4th place, beat one team all year prior to NXR that finished in the top 10 in their region, and one of their marquee wins were over the teams that finished in 14th, 26th, and 27th at their regions, I would say that team has zero shot of being an at-large.
Once California runs, Rocky and Plainfield South will get pushed out. Rocky didn't travel out of state but at least has wins in season over Dana Hills (even if they weren't down a runner, Rocky still would have beat them no matter where he finished), Trabuco Hills, Seattle Prep, Star Valley, and multiple wins over Boise (Boise's #1/2 DNF'd at NXR NW, they would have been 5th with him finishing).
Stop bringing Dana hills into this. The committee won’t count that as a point for Rocky.
That's my thought. Riverton gets in, Brunner becomes an individual qualifier, and then the at-larges shift to other regions bc the SW will have 26 runners at that point and the next two individuals don't have incredible credentials outside of their finishes at the NXR region.
IF Niwot does get an at-large, there's absolutely no way in my mind the SW gets an at-large individual spot at all.
My current picks for at-large spots are Riverton, Austin Vandegrift, Franklin, and Plainfield South or Rocky in that order. Niwot was just so far back at their meet. While a great resume can help push you over the top as an at-large, it can't hide a terrible regional meet.
Unfortunately, Niwot doesn't even have a great resume. Their big win at the 4A state meet was over the team that got 11th at Liberty Bell. The team they dominated at Desert Twilight was 6th in the Colorado 5A state meet and 26th at NXR SW. The team that got 4th was the 10th place team at the Texas 6A state meet and got 14th at NXR South. The third place team did win the Division 1 Arizona state champs, but their runners went 8-10-18-26-30-38-46 and are 4:21/9:18, 4:27/9:39, 4:22/9:37, 4:38/10:03, 4:45/9:59, 2:09/5:02, and a 42.24 300mh/2:17 guy. Decent for 1-5, but zero depth beyond that and got 27th at NXR SW.
If you told me that a team finished 99 points out of qualifying in their NXR region in 4th place, beat one team all year prior to NXR that finished in the top 10 in their region, and one of their marquee wins were over the teams that finished in 14th, 26th, and 27th at their regions, I would say that team has zero shot of being an at-large.
Once California runs, Rocky and Plainfield South will get pushed out. Rocky didn't travel out of state but at least has wins in season over Dana Hills (even if they weren't down a runner, Rocky still would have beat them no matter where he finished), Trabuco Hills, Seattle Prep, Star Valley, and multiple wins over Boise (Boise's #1/2 DNF'd at NXR NW, they would have been 5th with him finishing).
Stop bringing Dana hills into this. The committee won’t count that as a point for Rocky.
Right. Because last year the committee didn’t count beating Great Oak at Bob Firman as a point for Rocky.
And 4th place teams don’t get as good of a chance to go to NXN as Third place teams do
We counted Rocky's Bob Firman head to head win over Great Oak last year, BUT the deciding factor for Granada was they had 2 head to head wins over Great Oak.
We counted Rocky's Bob Firman head to head win over Great Oak last year, BUT the deciding factor for Granada was they had 2 head to head wins over Great Oak.
Stop bringing Dana hills into this. The committee won’t count that as a point for Rocky.
I know your entire thing is hating Rocky, and I don't like them either, but I think it's fair to point out that they have as much of an argument to be selected as Niwot does. I don't think Rocky deserves to be selected at all, and I don't think they will be in consideration. Niwot has an absolutely abysmal resume at this point and they didn't race well at the most important race on their schedule.
Why does a team like that deserve to go? Beat nobody and then don't even remotely perform when the end of the season comes around. The teams they beat badly at meets during the season got beat worse by other schools that have arguments for at large spots.
This is the same thing as Rocky last year. The teams that finished in the top 10 at NXR NW that Rocky raced during the season gained ground on them since Firman, and Rocky didn't have a single major victory bc the teams that Rocky narrowly beat at Firman laid absolute eggs at NXR SW. Now that the season is essentially wrapped up, Niwot's credentials don't look good at all, just like how Rocky's win at Firman last year lost a lot of the luster after NXR SW.
Stop bringing Dana hills into this. The committee won’t count that as a point for Rocky.
I know your entire thing is hating Rocky, and I don't like them either, but I think it's fair to point out that they have as much of an argument to be selected as Niwot does. I don't think Rocky deserves to be selected at all, and I don't think they will be in consideration. Niwot has an absolutely abysmal resume at this point and they didn't race well at the most important race on their schedule.
Why does a team like that deserve to go? Beat nobody and then don't even remotely perform when the end of the season comes around. The teams they beat badly at meets during the season got beat worse by other schools that have arguments for at large spots.
This is the same thing as Rocky last year. The teams that finished in the top 10 at NXR NW that Rocky raced during the season gained ground on them since Firman, and Rocky didn't have a single major victory bc the teams that Rocky narrowly beat at Firman laid absolute eggs at NXR SW. Now that the season is essentially wrapped up, Niwot's credentials don't look good at all, just like how Rocky's win at Firman last year lost a lot of the luster after NXR SW.
I don’t hate rocky lol. It’s just all in jest since they are adamant they deserve to go but have nothing show. I don’t need a dissertation on why niwot or rocky deserve to go especially after getting fourth in a region. They don’t. Point blank. period.
I’m only taking issue that you keep introducing a team to the conversation that historically does not do well in September and was under manned for firman after running two hard races back to back to make a point for rocky that, “But look! They deserve to go because they beat Dana!” Nah son, don’t bring down a team that has consistently gone out of their way to race the best and has shown up in each race that has mattered so far.
Neither Niwot nor Rocky deserve to go. If you want to go to NXN, perform when it matters. Get top two in your region or go to different regions to rack up points if you want an at large berth. What irks me is the sense or perception of entitlement. Show up, show out, or be quiet. You have nobody to blame but yourself. Take accountability, be humble, and do better. Simple.
I know your entire thing is hating Rocky, and I don't like them either, but I think it's fair to point out that they have as much of an argument to be selected as Niwot does. I don't think Rocky deserves to be selected at all, and I don't think they will be in consideration. Niwot has an absolutely abysmal resume at this point and they didn't race well at the most important race on their schedule.
Why does a team like that deserve to go? Beat nobody and then don't even remotely perform when the end of the season comes around. The teams they beat badly at meets during the season got beat worse by other schools that have arguments for at large spots.
This is the same thing as Rocky last year. The teams that finished in the top 10 at NXR NW that Rocky raced during the season gained ground on them since Firman, and Rocky didn't have a single major victory bc the teams that Rocky narrowly beat at Firman laid absolute eggs at NXR SW. Now that the season is essentially wrapped up, Niwot's credentials don't look good at all, just like how Rocky's win at Firman last year lost a lot of the luster after NXR SW.
I don’t hate rocky lol. It’s just all in jest since they are adamant they deserve to go but have nothing show. I don’t need a dissertation on why niwot or rocky deserve to go especially after getting fourth in a region. They don’t. Point blank. period.
I’m only taking issue that you keep introducing a team to the conversation that historically does not do well in September and was under manned for firman after running two hard races back to back to make a point for rocky that, “But look! They deserve to go because they beat Dana!” Nah son, don’t bring down a team that has consistently gone out of their way to race the best and has shown up in each race that has mattered so far.
Neither Niwot nor Rocky deserve to go. If you want to go to NXN, perform when it matters. Get top two in your region or go to different regions to rack up points if you want an at large berth. What irks me is the sense or perception of entitlement. Show up, show out, or be quiet. You have nobody to blame but yourself. Take accountability, be humble, and do better. Simple.
I think you need to read the first paragraph again. They are saying that neither Niwot or Rocky deserves to go and that both of them have equally bad arguments to be picked.
That post actually goes on to say that Rocky’s resume last year was facing the same issue Niwot’s is this year. Their earlier performances don’t hold up after teams they raced wrapped up their seasons at NXR.
I definitely took that as an argument against either Rocky or Niwot being taken.
I don’t hate rocky lol. It’s just all in jest since they are adamant they deserve to go but have nothing show. I don’t need a dissertation on why niwot or rocky deserve to go especially after getting fourth in a region. They don’t. Point blank. period.
I’m only taking issue that you keep introducing a team to the conversation that historically does not do well in September and was under manned for firman after running two hard races back to back to make a point for rocky that, “But look! They deserve to go because they beat Dana!” Nah son, don’t bring down a team that has consistently gone out of their way to race the best and has shown up in each race that has mattered so far.
Neither Niwot nor Rocky deserve to go. If you want to go to NXN, perform when it matters. Get top two in your region or go to different regions to rack up points if you want an at large berth. What irks me is the sense or perception of entitlement. Show up, show out, or be quiet. You have nobody to blame but yourself. Take accountability, be humble, and do better. Simple.
I think you need to read the first paragraph again. They are saying that neither Niwot or Rocky deserves to go and that both of them have equally bad arguments to be picked.
That post actually goes on to say that Rocky’s resume last year was facing the same issue Niwot’s is this year. Their earlier performances don’t hold up after teams they raced wrapped up their seasons at NXR.
I definitely took that as an argument against either Rocky or Niwot being taken.
I interpreted as if Niwot gets selected to go as an at large, Rocky too should be considered. An element of if, then was introduced and I want that squashed. I understood that we are both saying they don’t deserve to go. Let’s not then go on and introduce hypotheticals.
Thanks for adding nothing that I already didn’t understand.
Newbury park has been the best team for the past 4 years and loudoun valley the 2 years before that. This coming year will be the dawn of a new era. Lets look at who some of the top returning teams would be.Notes: The class I...
Every team should fight for their case as an at-large.
Rocky last year finished 3rd to Crater and Jesuit who went on to finish 2nd and 4th at NXN. That’s worth noting, but I totally agree with you, get top 2 in your region to solidify it (easier said then done).
This year it looked like Rocky had 4 of their top 5 boys run the best they had all year (their sophomore was a bit off but only a few speed rating points). To tell them to run better at the end of the year is to say you don’t understand that they actually did. They brought what they had and got within 30 points of winning the region.
once again, if I hear about rocky mountain high school from Idaho one more time, I am gonna lose it. They do not deserve an at large this year for averaging 15:50 on a mid level course and placing fourth in their region. There are about 6-7-8 southwest teams at or above rocky’s level.
From the southeast, Vestavia Hills places 3rd. They barely lost and they would have averaged 15:40s in their state meet if their 2nd guy didn’t have an off day. They also beat the 30th team in the nation Huntsville. Then they beat them at nxr by an huge amount. Another question, how much slower is the nxn course compared to the SE course?
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