I'm not embarassed by my times. I just want readers of this thread to realize that I understand my place in the scheme of things. One poster has run a 2:16, another had a 5K race start held up by the urgings of Lasse Viren, another is a semi professional and many more have who knows what kind of credentials.
The walk breaks were slow walking, weren't timed, but I think most were less than 30 seconds. I am happy that I could run the last 4 faster, without any breaks.
Generally, I have been able to race at 1.5 minutes faster per mile than my long runs. I train slow. I am not sure that that relationship will be valid as I improve.
I am basing my estimate on a combination of Frank Shorter's thoughts that 1 minute per mile is about the outside edge of race pace versus long run pace and the fact that I feel that the faster I get, the smaller the spread will be. Not on all the long runs. I plan to run one hard and hope to get around 23.2 in 3:20, which is my reach goal.
I do not make my race day pace decision, based on the long runs alone either. It is a controlling factor over 10K's or half marathons though.
I'm at 166 now, which is only 6 over my goal. Partial fasts have been a factor.