objectiveobserver wrote:
My opinion is based on excellent research.
You are stating that Jakob last lap in London was similar to Bekele's last lap, but you are not taking account context.
Jakob last lap was 53.70 in a 13:02 race and a 2:26:00 last km. This is impressive, but not impressive for Bekele.
If you take Bekele 2008:
He ended the race with a 53.82 lap, but the race was much faster, 12:57, the last km was faster 2:25:30 and he has run the last two km of the race in 4:56, which is absolutely unbelievable after running 3000m while Ingebrigsten best record of 2 000 is just 4:50.
If you take Bekele 2009:
He ended with a 53.70 lap. The race was slower, 13:14, but the last km was significantly faster 2:24:88.
Here is a video of Bekele dropping a 53.02 second last lap in a 12:48 race.
As for El Guerrouj, his last lap was sub 53 in 2004 in a faster last km, and the one he lost in 2003 the last km was in 2:24 which is also much better and in a faster race.
The performance of Jakob is nothing special, it is very good, but nothing extraordinary.
You want to see what happen to Jakob when he is in a sub 13:00 race with a 2:24:94 last km? That's Doha 2019, he completely implodes and finish with a dive to save a 5th place because he can barely run.
His London 2019 performance was good but was the perfect situation for him. A moderately fast paced race with rabbits and then Kipruto who take the rythm. And the lack of competition. The only other top 5000m runner of the race with a kick beat him.
The only thing that Jakob has is his age. Wanjiru ran 26:41 at 10 000m at 18, Barega ran 12:43 at 18. Jakob is very good for his age but not even the best we have seen. And generally people who peak early don't progress much after.
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You cannot read either! I stated that Jakob at 18 WAS CLOSE TO BEKELE.....
With your additional numbers I will maintain that Jakob at 18 was not far behind Bekele and E-G in their prime!
And we were talking about Jakob´s FINISHING SPEED not his last kilometers in a 5000m
(even though Jakob´s last km was only marginally slower than Bekele´s).
This thread was about what Jakob can do in the future and you have absolutely no argument for joining the "false melody" that Jakob will peak soon.
Jakob ran the 5000m in 14:38 at 15, 13:35 at 16, 13:17 at 17 and 13:02 at 18. Does his progression chart look like it is going to flatten soon?
Yes it absolutely look like it will flatten soon unless you hope that Jakob will run 12:47 at 19 and 12:32 at 20 which will definitely not happen. He has only 3 months left to run a 12:47 at 19....
I expect him to run a sub 13:00 5000m if he can catch another perfect race for him but he will never get close to any world record. Never.
Saying that Jakob at 18 was close to a prime Bekele only make you look like a joke. Jakob at 18 is a good runner, world class, but is not winning any big race and fail to medal despite average competition in both the 1500m and the 5000m (he can be happy that the field is limited to 3 per nations or 5-6 ethiopians would finish above him in the 5 000m)
What if we wait for him to run some real world class times or win some world class races before we talk about records?