For those of you who are dismissing Coronavirus....

Educate Yourself wrote:

Roni 19 wrote:

Go to hell you grave dancing ghoul. True monsters celebrate death.

Not celebrating anything. But most people on this board in denial, because of the serious nature of this issue. It’s human nature.

.

Wrong again. Being logical is not human nature. Panicking, fight or flight, is. You're panicking and being entirely basic human. Other, more logical, people are telling you to chill out. Chill out.

The flu and coronavirus have nearly identical incubation/infectious periods.

Incubation 5 days. Which means that an infected person is infecting others before they become symptomatic.

Sickness period 5 days. Still infectious, but most people don't expose themselves to others during this period.

Infectiousness drops to almost nil once the symptoms stop after the sick period.

The comber of confirmed cases is no way near the number of cases in incubation. The number of confirmed cases is probably 1/20th of the number who are actually infected.

Influenza stats

36-51 million cases . The CDC doesn't actually how many cases because most people don't go to a physician.

226,000 to 320, 000 case PER DAY average over 159 days. In reality most of the flu cases happened between Christmas and March 7 ....... 74 days (see the link below)... so basically double the numbers below on a per day basis.

Hospitalizations

370,000 - 670,000

2327-4213 Per day from October 1

Fatalities

22,000 to 55,000

138-345 per day from October 1

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm?fbclid=IwAR3jVpLtKaVFdvDjJ__tcvA8xJ-kIVoLZC8nRO-mnjXogGJgJBu-QbU0BXQ

bluecolla wrote:

Educate Yourself wrote:

I doubt the current administration can show the leadership required to mitigate the pandemic.

I have contacts at The Pentagon. We are going to be taking extreme measures e.g. Italy within the next 48 hours, precisely due to people’s inability or unwillingness to take the measures necessary to mitigate the foreseeable damage.

Interesting and unfortunately necessary

Educate Yourself wrote:

The compelling thing about the statistics is that they present very clear trends. You can see the exponential growth curves for China (for a time), Korea, Italy, and now the US clear as day.

You are basing your argument on a positive feedback loop. The more you test, the more the public demands testing, and the more cases you have. And again, more testing is demanded. You will find as many cases as tests you have available. There probably have been 500000+ cases of this in the US and nobody can know. The death rate is something like .0000006% EXCEPT for those who are already on their deathbed (like in a frigging nursing home).

Oh and the cases where there had been "no known international travel"? It's because it's been spreading domestically for months.

bluecolla wrote:

Educate Yourself wrote:

I doubt the current administration can show the leadership required to mitigate the pandemic.

I have contacts at The Pentagon. We are going to be taking extreme measures e.g. Italy within the next 48 hours, precisely due to people’s inability or unwillingness to take the measures necessary to mitigate the foreseeable damage.

So who is the janitor you're married to that empties some powerpoint private's recycling bin

imanexpert wrote:

Ok chicken little.

30 MILLION people get the flu every year in the USA. That’s just in the USA. That’s every single year. Lots of old people die from the flu every year. It’s not a big deal. Don’t be a hysterical bioach.

500,000 people die every single year from heart disease yet we don’t shout down McDonald’s. Those are deaths.

Few healthy people die from the flu or Coronavirus.

Don’t be ignorant.

Statistics say Coronavirus is killing at a rate 10-30 times that of the flu. But suppose you don’t care because all of those that are dying are primarily the elderly or those with weakened immune systems. And somehow you don’t know or care about anyone in those categories... let me give you a reason to care. Our health care system will be overwhelmed by people who’s systems can’t handle the virus. Somewhere between 10% and 20% of tracked cases are serious enough to require hospital care.

If the virus scales up on its current trend line, our hospitals won’t be able to handle the load, and more people will die. The financial impact will fall on us as tax payers, if that matters to you.

Once again... there is a solution. Hope bluecolla is right and the government takes steps, as alot of people simply aren’t willing to.

[/quote]

So who is the janitor you're married to that empties some powerpoint private's recycling bin[/quote]

Hey at least there’s job stability, right? How’s your 401k doing? Did you hear they halted Dow Futures trading today because it tripped the circuit breaker?

bluecolla wrote:

So who is the janitor you're married to that empties some powerpoint private's recycling bin[/quote]

Hey at least there’s job stability, right? How’s your 401k doing? Did you hear they halted Dow Futures trading today because it tripped the circuit breaker?[/quote]

Did pretty well buying in 2008 and I am sure 12 years hence I will be happy buying now. Plenty of cash to spare cupcake. Truly hope you can say the same.

Hysteria Maria wrote:

The flu and coronavirus have nearly identical incubation/infectious periods.

Incubation 5 days. Which means that an infected person is infecting others before they become symptomatic.

Sickness period 5 days. Still infectious, but most people don't expose themselves to others during this period.

Infectiousness drops to almost nil once the symptoms stop after the sick period.

The nation's premier expert on infectious disease disagrees that one can equate the flu and Covid. And he has absolutely no reason to, given how much he's upsetting Trump (his boss) by doing so.

Educate Yourself wrote:

Hysteria Maria wrote:

The flu and coronavirus have nearly identical incubation/infectious periods.

Incubation 5 days. Which means that an infected person is infecting others before they become symptomatic.

Sickness period 5 days. Still infectious, but most people don't expose themselves to others during this period.

Infectiousness drops to almost nil once the symptoms stop after the sick period.

The nation's premier expert on infectious disease disagrees that one can equate the flu and Covid. And he has absolutely no reason to, given how much he's upsetting Trump (his boss) by doing so.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/dr-anthony-fauci-schools-sean-hannity-on-dangers-of-coronavirus

The Daily Beast? LoL...Good luck ever leaving your mommy's basement.

bluecolla wrote:

Educate Yourself wrote:

I doubt the current administration can show the leadership required to mitigate the pandemic.

I have contacts at The Pentagon. We are going to be taking extreme measures e.g. Italy within the next 48 hours, precisely due to people’s inability or unwillingness to take the measures necessary to mitigate the foreseeable damage.

Kudos. It may have started already. This just in:

Roni 19 wrote:

The Daily Beast? LoL...Good luck ever leaving your mommy's basement.

Fauci is quoted directly. Oh... and there is a video of his interview as well.

A Hungry, Violent Mob wrote:

You are basing your argument on a positive feedback loop. The more you test, the more the public demands testing, and the more cases you have. And again, more testing is demanded. You will find as many cases as tests you have available. There probably have been 500000+ cases of this in the US and nobody can know. The death rate is something like .0000006% EXCEPT for those who are already on their deathbed (like in a frigging nursing home).

Oh and the cases where there had been "no known international travel"? It's because it's been spreading domestically for months.

So clearly you don't accept the actual statistics. Can't do much about that. But try to come up with reasonable answers to the following questions that fit your assumptions:

-If this is really no big deal, why were Wuhan's and Northern Italy's medical facilities completely overwhelmed by Covid? I'm guessing they were not filled with people coming in with mild cases to get checked out. They were filled with people needing respirators. In Italy, the docs and nurses didn't have enough respirators to go around, and had to essentially choose who lived and who died.

-Why are some of the biggest businesses adjusting in significantly unprofitable ways to Covid? The NCAA is losing an estimated $1 Billion in ticket sales, merchandising, and TV revenue due to cancelling the tournament. When has the NCAA ever put something, anything, above their bottom line? You all are runners and sports fans, you know the answer to that. The answer is never. The NBA and NHL are similarly in line to take major financial hits. The next wave is the retail industry (see Starbucks, REI, etc). Business don't shut their doors for no reason.

-Why are infectious disease experts around the country, who presumably know more than your average LR poster, tolling the bells of warning? If you're wrong about something like this, and you are in position of profile, it will end your career.

To be honest, three weeks ago I thought this would all blow over. I was about to travel to Europe, and a lady at work was warning me to stock up on rations. I thought she was nuts. I certainly didn't believe the reporting out of China. Luckily I got back in time to miss the craziness going on in O'Hare and other international airports. The preponderance of evidence, reporting from Italy and the rest of the world, the behaviors of some major corporations, the warnings of medical experts, the unrelenting statistics, all have convinced me that Covid is a disaster waiting to happen in this country.

We can still head this off by self-isolating.

The cumulative deaths in King County, WA, the last three weeks:

-13

-22(+9)

-36(+14)

That is rate growth but not exponential growth. With reasonable distancing measures (not a quarantine) this will peaking out soon and be done and dusted by June.

A Hungry, Violent Mob wrote:

Educate Yourself wrote:

The compelling thing about the statistics is that they present very clear trends. You can see the exponential growth curves for China (for a time), Korea, Italy, and now the US clear as day.

You are basing your argument on a positive feedback loop. The more you test, the more the public demands testing, and the more cases you have. And again, more testing is demanded. You will find as many cases as tests you have available. There probably have been 500000+ cases of this in the US and nobody can know. The death rate is something like .0000006% EXCEPT for those who are already on their deathbed (like in a frigging nursing home).

Oh and the cases where there had been "no known international travel"? It's because it's been spreading domestically for months.

How do you explain the spike in deaths in Italy then? I wish you were right but you lo really wrong.

hshsb wrote:

A Hungry, Violent Mob wrote:

You are basing your argument on a positive feedback loop. The more you test, the more the public demands testing, and the more cases you have. And again, more testing is demanded. You will find as many cases as tests you have available. There probably have been 500000+ cases of this in the US and nobody can know. The death rate is something like .0000006% EXCEPT for those who are already on their deathbed (like in a frigging nursing home).

Oh and the cases where there had been "no known international travel"? It's because it's been spreading domestically for months.

How do you explain the spike in deaths in Italy then? I wish you were right but you lo really wrong.

How is Italy any different? They have 1200ish deaths and, like the US, an unknown number of people. There may be 2 of their 60 million infected. They have a mean age of 46, compared to the US at 38. They are a proud, stupid populace and are packed together like rats.

They caught it late, and are primed for spread of a disease. Their aging population full of smokers is more apt to have more serious implications from covid-19.

You’re looking at too small of a sample set. There is a point after which the deaths, in addition to the diagnosed cases, grows exponentially.

There are charts for cumulative deaths at Worldometer.

Obviously, Italy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

And it has started in the US.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Educate Yourself wrote:

Hysteria Maria wrote:

The flu and coronavirus have nearly identical incubation/infectious periods.

Incubation 5 days. Which means that an infected person is infecting others before they become symptomatic.

Sickness period 5 days. Still infectious, but most people don't expose themselves to others during this period.

Infectiousness drops to almost nil once the symptoms stop after the sick period.

The nation's premier expert on infectious disease disagrees that one can equate the flu and Covid. And he has absolutely no reason to, given how much he's upsetting Trump (his boss) by doing so.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/dr-anthony-fauci-schools-sean-hannity-on-dangers-of-coronavirus

Oh...so this is guy who refuses to get tested himself though he's been near some people with the virus. Lol.

Educate Yourself wrote:With the current trend line, we will hit 900,000 in two weeks, and over 200M a month from now.

Neither Confirmed cases nor actual cases will double in 48 hrs when many/most people are already infected.