Slughorn wrote:
I would be very surprised if he ran 2:07-08. 2:09 would not surprise me. I think he can run 2:09-12, and Atlanta means 2-3 minutes slow I hear. If he runs under 2:12 there, he could make the team.
Maybe with his additional 2-3 or weeks of training, he can drop it. I would need to see a better workout than this.
2:07 or 2:08? nobody reputable is suggesting that he could ever run that fast. especially not at what will likely be his only marathon...the Olympic Trials in Atlanta. I think he could run 2:10 on a flat course, but at the Trials that would translate to something like 2:12-2:13.
The biggest question would be his race strategy at the Trials. Does he time trial and just go his own pace...either out in front or in the back? Does he hang with the leaders for as long as possible and then crater? I hope he just time trials it even if it means leading the first 10k.