Who are the favorites for the 2020 US Olympic Marathon Trials? We tell you here.

Wim Jalmsley wrote:

Where's Walmsley? I'd say he's a potential dark horse.

LOL!!!

Walmsley will DNF or 2:18 plus, what a joke

Women: Linden, Huddle, Bates. I doubt Hasay will toe the line healthy, since she seems to be constantly injured.

Men: Rupp, Ward, Fauble

Not bad previews. Don't think Rupp at 90% & Korir at 50% makes any sense at all. I would consider Korir the favorite at this moment in time on the men's side. The dude went out in 63-flat just a couple weeks ago and ran 2:07-high. I think that is also a bit stronger than what Fauble and Ward did at Boston. I agree Boston is not pancake flat but you can still catch a good day there and it is still a net downhill.

I like Korir, Ward, and then one of the many other guys in the hunt. I really really like Fauble, but he had a rough fall. I hope he comes back & proves me wrong. Just for fun, give me Droddy at 3. No Rupp. He is a DNF.

For the women, I think it was a mistake to not include Kellyn Taylor up top, especially with the injuries/uncertainties of some of the others. No clue if Jordan will be ready to roll and you gave her the highest percent at 50. I like Sisson, Huddle, and Des. Taylor if Des doesn't run.

Three other notes: I thought it was really interesting that 8 out of 16 men broke 2:12 this year in Vaporfly's. I actually think this helps the Vaporfly's are just really good shoes but other companies are still producing good enough shoes argument. Everyone is wearing Vaporfly's. Nike seems to sponsor everyone. Their marketing is really good. If you don't have a shoe sponsor and you're running at a high level, you're wearing Vaporfly's. 8 guys with other sponsors still broke 2:12 during the best marathon season for American men in the 2010s. Maybe the athletes are doing something right with their training?

2nd note is that the percentage thing didn't do it for me. Maybe there's a world where it makes sense if we turn those to betting odds or something but we have really good depth on both sides. Just hype up the athletes. I still like the tiers. We get it if someone you mention at the end probably won't make the team. That works on its own -- I don't need to see 1% or 5% next to someone's name. Also, the top-end percentages felt really off to me.

Last note is that adding Kenyan born next to Korir's name did absolutely nothing for me. I don't know why that's relevant at all. You also seemed to shortchange him, giving him much worse percentage odds than Rupp. You should focus on their current running form instead of on where they were born. You're a running website. Write about running (which you did & often do a good job with).

Um...ever heard of Jordan Hasay?!

These are good predictions, but they underestimate the uncertainty in the marathon. Rupp at 90% is far too high; is there even a 90% chance he makes it to the start line?

Abdi, Ritz, and Lagat are too low. Do I think Ritz say will make the team? No, of course not. But a 1-in-20 shot would be really low for a 61-minute half marathoner whoever it was.

I like most of the women's probabilities, but 1% for "everyone else" is far too low. Remember, 1% is once every 200 years, including both men and women. It's like the craziest thing that you could imagine happening. 1% could be the chance of freakish weather that gives 1-2 totally unexpected qualifiers. 1% could be the probability of Gwen Jorgensen magically recovering and making the team, or the chance of a 40+ athlete, or Sarah Sellers. 1% may be the chance that a total unknown wins the trials and medals at the Olympics. Someone like Allie Kieffer with a proven track record may have more like a 5% chance of making the team.

Add all of these possibilities up, and you have far more than 1% chance. Maybe it's more like 10%.

Ackley wrote:

Korir is the only American that has given a healthy Rupp an honest race on the roads in recent years. Ward and Fauble have not shown that they have the ability to break 2:08. Korir did it in his debut.

I would put Korir at 70% and Ward and Fauble at 40%.

I get the Korir hype but he's run ONE marathon at it was a rabbited race on a flat course and he barely broke 2:07. Fauble and especially Ward have run championship style races on hilly courses. Korir's lack of experience bothers me. This isn't a 10k, it's a marathon. If I was Korir I probably would have opted for a hillier course for a fall marathon.

Ward's 2:10 on NY course is probably equivalent to just under 2:08, as was Fauble and Ward's 2:09's from Boston. Ward was 6th at the Olympics and you don't think he can dip under 2:08 on a flat time trial course. Even if that's not his strength it doesn't matter as the trials course is very hilly. Face it, all three of these guys are on par with each other with Ward the slight edge.

Also, watch out for Conner McMillan. 2:12 in NY for a debut is something very few Americans in recent years could probably produce.

You forgot somebody, Jon. Someone no one's thought about for a long time, but he ought to be considered.

Puskedra.

After a string of bad performances, and then retiring last winter for the *second* time, and throwing himself into work, family, and general domesticity, it's no surprise that everyone's forgotten him.

But apparently he started some casual, recreational running in the spring, and rediscovered a little bit of his love for the sport. A steep improvement curve made him say what the hell, and jump into a serious race, at the 20K Champs in New Haven.

Off a long layoff, and some casual training, he ran a 1:03. Nothing awesome, sure, but not bad at all, all things considered, and not too far behind a lot of the guys on your list.

Apparently, that result was enough to convince Luke to get serious, and take one more crack at the Trials. (I'm just inferring this from occasional, cryptic training clips he's posted on Twitter or IG.)

He's looking lean, fit, and serious.

Don't forget, this guy ran 2:10:28 at Chicago in '15 --and that was before Vaporflys.

Don't be shocked if Luke contends. At least it's another great story to watch.

jeez, Rupp at 90%? I get that if he finishes the race there is a 100% of him making the team but he's no longer the iron man he used to be. If these were vegas odds, I'd bet strongly against: there's more than a 10% chance of a DNS or DNF.

As much as we all love Ritz, I don’t want him to qualify. He may be able to complete one marathon, but he’s not finishing two marathons in a row. Impossible. 0% chance. America needs winners made of Pittsburgh steel. Ritz is made of glass.

Speaking of, are we allowed to enter alternates?

3hr-marathoner wrote:

jeez, Rupp at 90%? I get that if he finishes the race there is a 100% of him making the team but he's no longer the iron man he used to be. If these were vegas odds, I'd bet strongly against: there's more than a 10% chance of a DNS or DNF.

Rupp can treat the trials as a hard tempo and still easily make the team. The letsrun staff loves to hate on Rupp, but they are also in touch with reality. Rupp is a machine in championship races.

Rupp is too big of a question mark for me given his surgery, his DNF at Chicago, and the heightened scrutiny of his coach and NOP. If he can finish the race, I think he'll qualify, but I think the chances are just as great of him DNFing. I'd give him a 50/50 shot. I see Lagat as a dark horse (and he's my sentimental favorite).

Likewise on the women's side, I think Des Linden is underrated, and I think Hasay is overrated. She has consistently failed to make the grade when it comes to world level competition, and like Rupp she DNF'd her last marathon, and is under increased scrutiny because of all that is coming out about her training program and coach. I think she has less of a chance than Rupp. Say, 40%.

Lagat is much too low at 5%. I would put him in the Ward/Fauble tier. Bernard Lagat does not lose to Galen Rupp. He will remind us once again that god-tier genetics always prevail.

Ritz is very worthy of at least 5%. His talent still shines on occasion. But not much more than 5%... just too brittle.

Sara Hall is like 50%+... infinite heart and she is actually super fast now too. Her trajectory is insane. She will contend for the win.

LoneStarXC wrote:

Women: Linden, Huddle, Bates. I doubt Hasay will toe the line healthy, since she seems to be constantly injured.

Men: Rupp, Ward, Fauble

Agreed, except Huddle. Not sure why everyone loves Huddle for the marathon, as she hasn't shown herself to be better than a lot of people.

And yes, as much as I think Hasay can run a fast time, the chances of her showing up in Tokyo uninjured are not very high. Hard to take the gamble.. top three if she shows up, but 60% chance she won't show at all?

Great call. He won't make the team but will be top 10.

LoneStarXC wrote:

Women: Linden, Huddle, Bates. I doubt Hasay will toe the line healthy, since she seems to be constantly injured.

Men: Rupp, Ward, Fauble

ehhh close.

Men: Rupp, Korir, Ward (or Lagat - he's still got the speed). Walmsley runs 2:15

Women: Sisson, Hasay, Bates. Huddle, Linden, Hall 4-5-6

Men Korir, Lagat, Abdi

Women: Sisson, Kipyego, Linden

Men Rupp, Korir, Ward.

Women Hasay, Kipyego, Sisson

douglas burke wrote:

Men Rupp, Korir, Ward.

Women Hasay, Kipyego, Sisson

I am pretty close to this. Though I will say either Bates or Taylor makes the team over Kipyego or Hasay.

Hope I'm wrong, but I'll pick Huddle for a heartbreaking 4th.