Jairus Birech predicts he and Evan Jager will go 1-2 in Olympic men's steeplechase

Why has Andy not asked Canova about the status of Bekele? I think the majority of letsrun has a deep interest as to whether Bekele will make a true comeback to racing.

Bold bet wrote:

That's a strong assertion considering he wasn't even our top steepler at worlds last year. While I totally believe in Evan's potential, and hope to see him medal. Saying the only way he doesn't finish top four is injury, just hasn't proved to be the case in his career thus far.

I think Birech is right that a fast race (8 flat or less) would play into his or Jager's hands. The problem is that type of race never happens in an Oly or WC final. It takes huge balls to go for it in that type of race; I'd love to see it happen, but the odds are against it. The same applies to Mo in the 5k/10k; to beat him someone has to make it a really fast race, but so far no one has had the courage (or ability) to do it. Here's hoping Kamworor and Jager/Birech make the races honest in Rio.

Mutisya wrote:

[quote]Bold bet wrote:

Here's hoping Kamworor and Jager/Birech make the races honest in Rio.

I don't hope so!

I enjoy watchin Kemboi sprinting past everybody in the last 200m. I hope he will win again!

Oh, Kam and Karoki will make the 10K fast. Don't you worry about it.

The compliment is cool and I agree Jager is among the 4-5 medal contenders. I also agree that a fast pace benefits Birech and Jager, but dropping an athlete with a 7:55x PR is much easier said than done. I know Kemboi is getting old, he has looked ragged at times and and his PR is from several years ago, but like Usain Bolt, he knows how to be ready when it really counts. Also, having a big kick doesn't always just mean you have raw speed, it could mean you aren't tired at the end of races. Also, no matter what athletes say in advance, Olympic races are rarely fast.

"Birech and Jager will take it out hard, but I don't think they'll be dropping Kemboi and Kipruto."

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You know it! Those guys aren't going anywhere soon and there could be another 'Bull$hit' trip over the last barrier - anything could happen.

A.Arnold wrote:

I said something similar to Canova regarding Evan, but he explained to me that neither Jairus nor Jager is lacking in pace. Their weakness, he claims, is the ability to change pace. Quick acceleration is not the same as top-end speed.

Kemboi is in a league of his own when it comes to the ability to accelerate during a steeplechase. To beat him, you have to turn the race into a test of speed-endurance, not quickness.

I could see that, as Evan didn't do too well in the 3k at indoors. Never found that top gear before everyone else was far in front of him. If it's a fast race I'd put my money on Jager, if it's slow I'd put it on Birech.

Jager was not at full strength indoors because he lost training time to a calf injury, and although he still ran 7:44 at U.S. trials, I have found over the last five years that it is quite difficult to get all the way back the first year when you've had a calf injury. That is my one worry about him being as good as last year at Paris. If fully healthy and able to train with no restrictions through the summer, he will be a threat to challenge the world record and a threat to medal in a fast race in Rio. But Kemboi can run a fast race. To be so incredibly fresh at the end of a race at a reasonable pace in warm weather as he was indicates that the pace was far too easy for him. I agree, though, that it is Jager's and Birech's best chance for a medal to push the pace the whole way. Don't sleep on Kipruto either.

I bet Birech is going to take some heat from Kenyans about this. Steeplechase...the pride of Kenya, and here's a Kenyan routing for a Muzungo to break up a sweep.

do you know who didn't forget who the fastest American 1500m runner was last year? MATT CENTROWITZbecause he was the fastest american over 1500m. by more than 2 seconds when he ran 3:30.40

ToMMoT wrote:

Devil Dog wrote:

If he take the typical American attitude of "I wont do anything gutsy, I'll hang with the Kenyans and hope to kick with them and snag a medal" he'll finish 5th/6th.

Every heard of Pre? Jager's the closest thing we've had to him in years, dude has guts. Bet he runs the 3000 steeple on pure hate and wins it in 7:52.xx.

In all seriousness though, I'm sure he's not slacking on the pace work right now in case it is a slow race. You have to remember, he was the fastest American 1500m runner last year and he doesn't specialize in the 1500m.

Quality article right there! Great work.

Kenyans don't think like "oh Birech is a traitor for wanting to team with the mzungu!"...

More like.." finally, someone to push us! This was getting boring!"

El Keniano wrote:

NativeSon wrote:

for anyone to write off Kemboi and Kipruto jr. is a big mistake.

Especially Conseslus Kipruto for me. He's proven to be the only one who can hang with Kemboi's kick and if that injury hadn't thrown off his development, I believe he'd have won gold last year. Watch out for the kid this year.

Birech and Jager will take it out hard, but I don't think they'll be dropping Kemboi and Kipruto.

Yeah hasn't Kemboi ran 7:55? They're not dropping him if he's locked in and focused, which he will be because it's the Olympics. That's really damn fast. Faster than them.

Totally agree. I think Kemboi, sometime last year, mentioned that this will be his last Olympics. His hunger to win this one is therefore more than all previous wins combined. Expect the unexpected from "Emily Chepchumba" dancing man. He will be ready for any eventuality!

Mr B wrote:

El Keniano wrote:

Especially Conseslus Kipruto for me. He's proven to be the only one who can hang with Kemboi's kick and if that injury hadn't thrown off his development, I believe he'd have won gold last year. Watch out for the kid this year.

Birech and Jager will take it out hard, but I don't think they'll be dropping Kemboi and Kipruto.

Yeah hasn't Kemboi ran 7:55? They're not dropping him if he's locked in and focused, which he will be because it's the Olympics. That's really damn fast. Faster than them.

completely unrelated but what's the origin of the "running on pure hate" joke?

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Mutisya wrote:

[quote]Bold bet wrote:

Here's hoping Kamworor and Jager/Birech make the races honest in Rio.

I don't hope so!

I enjoy watchin Kemboi sprinting past everybody in the last 200m. I hope he will win again!"

Or even better, they make the races honest and Kemboi still wins.

CDerrick08 said he'd take that bet.

El Keniano wrote:

NativeSon wrote:

for anyone to write off Kemboi and Kipruto jr. is a big mistake.

Especially Conseslus Kipruto for me. He's proven to be the only one who can hang with Kemboi's kick and if that injury hadn't thrown off his development, I believe he'd have won gold last year. Watch out for the kid this year.

Birech and Jager will take it out hard, but I don't think they'll be dropping Kemboi and Kipruto.

True.

Kemboi can do an 8:04 race if circumstances dictate.

Then, accelerate with 300m to go like a bat from hell.

Jager would be left in an instant.

Conseslus Kipruto is our next Kemboi. He can accelerate just like him and the good thing is that he has competed with him several times and knows Kemboi's tactics . He better stick to that. It's worked for Kemboi 'bigly' to quote Donald Trump.

Devil Dog wrote:

Jager proved in Paris he can win an Olympic Gold in a fast race. .

Really to me Paris showed Jager chocked when the pressure was on. When he realized he was running that fast and had a chance to win he chocked and went down