Derrick, Ritz, Riley.
Derrick, Ritz, Riley.
Ritz, Llano, Puskedra.
run.run wrote:
I'm going to pick Luke, to win.
I admit a lot of that is mostly because I want him to win, just because I think it will make for a good story. I like the whole comeback part of it. From dropped by his sponsors, completely out of the sport, to (hopefully) making the Olympic team without a sponsor.
he's been back with nike (but not NOP) since Chicago
Men, ritz, kibet
Rupp, Puskedra, Ward
None of the favorites are ready to run fast, so the pack will be large and slow with everyone watching Meb and Ritz and aiming to finish third. A dark horse with a fast HM time will go for the win by breaking away very early, but unlike Pfitz will be swallowed up by Ritz, Meb, Puskedra in that order.
1. Ritz. Strong finish over the last 4-5 miles for the win. I think he has the marathon figured out the best (other than meb)
2. Puskedra. Young and talented, only going to get better for a while before leveling off in a few years.
3. Meb. I think he'll be somewhere in the 4th-6th range most of the way before overtaking the 3rd spot in the final miles because of experience.
4. Estrada/Chelanga/Curtis. This is a toss up because only Bobby has run a full marathon. I think Chelanga and Estrada have major potential, but the first time out will be tough. I hope they both surprise. (Will Estrada run for the USA or mexico, btw?)
1. Jared Ward
2. Meb Keflezighi
3. Dathan Ritzenhein
If healthy, 1. Rupp, 2. Ritz, 3. Meb.
What kind of shape are Kibet and Chelanga in? Hard to ever pick against the Kenyans.
Hate to break it to everybody, but Meb will not be on the team. Abdi won't either. I wouldn't even wager that Ritz will be on it.
I'd say Rupp (if he runs), Puskedra, Ward, Pennel (if Rupp doesn't run)
The guard will be changing.
Cabada. He is the perfect dark horse to come on and win a spot, mainly because no on will expect him to be able to hang with the lead pack. When he does, that'll be enough from a psychological standpoint to mess with some heads.
Puskedra ran awesome in Chicago but can he do it again? That's the big question. I hope he does.
Why is nobody picking Jared Ward? He tore it up on the roads last year including the LA marathon about 10 months ago. Also Eggleston ran a great half @ Vegas in the wind. My picks are award, Eggleston , Puskedra!!
1. Rupp 2:09:25 (makes move at mile 20, finishes with a *typical* fist-pump)
2. Puskedra 2:10:11 (shows some racing savvy)
3. Estrada 2:10:38 (Stays with Rupp longest but falters in last 6k & almost loses his spot)
4. Ritzenhein 2:10:45 (Ouch)
5. Keflezighi 2:12:07
6. Chelanga 2:12:09
7. Ward 2:12:56
8. Kibet 2:13:02
9. Pennel 2:13:33
10. Derrick 2:13:43
All of those guys split 65:25 at the half.
Rupp should jump in and give it a shot. He can do a 10k and marathon double in Rio.
Without Rupp:
1. Ritz
2. Kibet
3. Meb
With Rupp:
1. Rupp
2. Ritz
3. Kibet
Puskedra will never break 2:11 again.
I'm going Ritz as a lock and Meb as a likely top 3, but 3rd spot too tough to call. I'm really starting to think that Rupp could show up. Otherwise it's wide open- Ward, Pennel (beat Ward head to head at Twin Cities 15 months ago), Derrick?, Chelanga, Puskedra, Kibet. I won't entirely rule out Ryan Vail either
What is the streaming situation? Hopefully USATF will have a live stream of the race
Estrada
Puskedra
Ward
whatever mod deleted my post, U S*CK!!!!!!!! A$$hole!!!!! just the fact that you have to take the time to delete this is worth it. leave my post alone and i won't use proxy addresses to F with U. my 3 guesses were as good as any of yours.
Rupp was looking extra skinny in the photos from that half in December, almost too skinny for a track guy. Who knows, but the weight loss could be part of the Rupp/Salazar plan to move to the marathon.
It's kind of strange that USATF doesn't require a commitment from the runners, less than a month out from the race.
My thoughts too. I give it a 99.9% chance of him appearing.
Rupp, Meb, Ritz.