I think if Rupp isn't there on the starting line, he may drop out within the first half. Probably just a move attempting to keep Rupp off the marathon team if needed.
I think if Rupp isn't there on the starting line, he may drop out within the first half. Probably just a move attempting to keep Rupp off the marathon team if needed.
I would also venture a guess that Chris doesn't plan on being a professional runner in his mid to late 30s. He's going to take a crack at the Olympic marathon this year and if it doesn't work out, chalk it up to a learning experience. Four years later, he's still in his prime and he'll be all the more wise in the event.
C_Trotzky wrote:
Yeah, the Trials are going to be sick. So wide open! You just know that at least one Cinderella story type guy is going to get in.
My picks are Ritz, Puskedra and Estrada.
It's amazing what we consider a 'Cinderella' in the year 2016. Can you please tell me who is the Cinderella story of your three?
Ritz - 2 time FL champ in HS. One of the all-time greats in HS. NCAA xc champs. Has run 12:56. Definitely not a Cinderella.
Puskedra - Ran 8:46 in HS. Top 5 at NCAA xc as a frosh. 3 times top 10 at NCAAs in xc. Should by no means be considered a Cinderella but since he quit the sport is this who you are talking about?
Diego Estrada - Made NCAAs in the 5k as frosh. Ran 13:15/27:32 in college. Is he your Cinderella since he only ran 828/904 in HS?
Estrada would clearly be the Cinderella based on HS if you can call a 9:04 guy who made NCAAs as a frosh in track a Cinderella.
br0ski wrote:
Just because he runs the marathon trials doesn't mean he can't run the track trials. He is just trying to give himself every opportunity to make the Olympics. They come only once every 4 years. You never want to miss out.
Yep. Tell that to CHris SOlinsky.
One would think 2020 would be ideal for Derrick as well but you never know what will happen down the road - whether it be injury or half of Africa gaining naturalized citizenship.
Speaking of naturalized citizens, does Chelenga plan on running the marathon trials? Does he have the standard?
Chelanga qualified with a half marathon and he's running the marathon trials.
fred wrote:
Teg 2:12, Flanagan 2:21, Bairu zip. What does Shumacher know about training for the marathon?
Let me put on my "I'll defend Jerry hat" for a minute.
2:12 for Teg is decent. Remember this is a guy who once vowed he wouldn't do a 10k. He clearly knew the marathon wasn't his best event.
2:21 for a marathon for Flanagan is VERY good.
It amazes me how people don't understand coaching. When the Nike Oregon project started, people thought Salazar was a bad coach for all events simply because he couldn't turn the Chad Johnson's of the world into medal contenders.
getoffhisnutz wrote:
Just shows you, jerry is in a rush to get publicity being that most of his athletes have not been performing well and have really become obsolete. Besides, the 8 flat by Jager what have they done? German is waaay worse, their other steeplers have done jack diddly, solinksy is gone, derrick hasnt really performed well for a long time, they have no olympic hopefuls in marathon.
Let's see, ignoring the fact that Jerry is very private and tries to hide from my camera whenever I see him at a major event as he doesn't care for publicity, I'll address the facts - or lack thereof of your statement. 1) Emily Infeld won a bronze medal at Worlds - the only medal won by Team USA in a distance event. 2) Steeplers have done Jack Diddy? Dan Huling was 5th in the World. In the history of Worlds, only American Brian Diemer (4th in 1987) has an American finished higher than that.
getoffhisnutz wrote:
Dude, he ran 63:40s, do you know how many guys have done that whom are actual marathoners?? He is not ready to roll with the big boys in 26.2 miles. He is too talented on the track to even be thinking about the trials. ..
Derrick could make some noise in the 10k for an olympic bid but marathon is definitely out of touch. When you are a 27:30 guy and you can't break 62, you are a weak marathoner no doubt
He's in the middle of marathon training. It's not like he ran 63:40 in a race he was prepped for. I'm sure he wishes he ran better but what someone does in a buildup is not really that important.
Case in point. Wilson Kipsang. He ran a half-marathon in February this year before getting 2nd at London in April. What did he run? 62:39. What did he run in London? 2:04:47. Yes, that was 12 weeks out from London whereas this was only 6 but you should get my point.
slam wrote:
Why???? I just don't get this move. He is only what, 24? 25?
Yeah I just don't get this move. Why doesn't he wait until he's at least 50, or 70???? It just doesn't make any sense. /sarcasm
I figured he was going to run the trials, after he ran so slow in the half, the only reason for that being to make sure that he qualified.
I believe the marathon time posted for Craig Virgin is incorrect. Unless I am mistaken his pr was 2:10:26 from Boston in '81 (exactly one minute behind Seko). Don't think he ran faster than that.
slam wrote:
Why???? I just don't get this move. He is only what, 24? 25?
He has huge potential on the track and could very well make the team at 5,000m or 10,000m. He has years to make the team in the marathon, why not concentrate on the track events right now? I don't understand these people who jump straight to the marathon.
This attitude is why we suck at the marathon. Thank god Sammy Wanjiru didn't have idiots like you telling him to stay on the track.
Fentrekker wrote:
I believe the marathon time posted for Craig Virgin is incorrect. Unless I am mistaken his pr was 2:10:26 from Boston in '81 (exactly one minute behind Seko). Don't think he ran faster than that.
You are correct. That was a typo we had in there of 2:10:06.
LetsRun.com wrote:
Fentrekker wrote:I believe the marathon time posted for Craig Virgin is incorrect. Unless I am mistaken his pr was 2:10:26 from Boston in '81 (exactly one minute behind Seko). Don't think he ran faster than that.
You are correct. That was a typo we had in there of 2:10:06.
For sure Craig could have run faster if he'd had a few more shots at it. His race in Boston that day was pretty fantastic. He was working hard to hold off Rodgers, who was closing fast and nearly fainted right after crossing the line. But I digress ...
He's 25. It's not a horrible decision. It will at least give him some options.
13:08 for 5K indicates 27:17 for 10K and 2:07:58, according to the McMillan calculator.
If he was just using the race as a workout/qualifier he may have a solid chance. He just doesn't have the big kick that's going to be competitive in a major track 10K. These days if a guy can't close in 53 high or 54 low you're left out of the medals.
Derrick had some injuries and a tough spring/summer last year. By contrast, Hill and True had banner years. Derrick might feel that the marathon is wide open due to Hall's health troubles, Ritz's glass legs, Meb's age and the fact that no one else has managed to consistently run better than 2:12 the past few years. If he isn't feeling it at the trials, he can just jog it in and have a huge base to start 10k training.
Also, the money in the marathon has got to be an issue for him too. He would get a nice check for his marathon debut after going to Rio. Also, Ritz, Meb and Hall are all on the cusp of retirement. 2016 is more than likely their last shot at the Olympics and the odds of them running marathons professionally in 2020 are very slim. Why wouldn't Derrick want to take a shot at establishing himself as the next top US marathoner and get all the sponsorship and support that comes with it?
I wouldn't be surprised if this was a ploy.
These marathon trials are wide open on the mens side. Meb of course is very talented and has a lot of experience, so unless he has an off day he should be in the mix.
Hall, appears to be out of contention with his medical issues. It would be a miracle for him to run in the 2:09 range based on recent results.
Ritz may still be injured, so very talented, but so fragile. If he shows up on race day healthy he will be dangerous. But we have to wonder how much training has he missed??
Tibet is an unknown entity and could be a factor.
Chelanga is very talented and I am sure has many of the competitors concerned, he could be a big factor.
Puskedra after that brilliant run in Chicago has to be considered as well.
Estrada another very talented runner, although it is his first 26 miler he could be dangerous.
Derrick certainly has the talent to run a good marathon, but does he have the mileage user his belt to compete at this level??
I am leaving out many good runners here, but the point is that it is impossible to pick who the top three will be.
I hope Rupp runs as he will change the entire completion of the race. I really do not think he has a chance to medal in the 10K as talented as he is. The marathon is much less predictable and he may have a better chance in it to medal.
Can't speak for the poster, but your are taking the post too literally. I think the implication was that a Cinderella runner (identity not know to almost anyone, until it happens) will make the team. That said, the poster thought Ritz, Puskedra, and Estrada would be the favorites.
Everyone is dismissing the first timers, but watch out one or more might just be a surprise. Predict that at least 2 non-favorites make the men's team.
broken arrow wrote:
Tibet is an unknown entity and could be a factor.
If Tibetan not Plateau, then Himalaya all on the line, otherwise Pakistan it in at the finish.
sorry, misspelled, it is Kibet
agip wrote:
anecdotally there is a long list of guys who ran 63 minute halves a month out from a marathon and then ran solid marathons.
We don't know he went all out, but now we know he hasn't been training to run a fast HM - he's been training to run a fast full marathon.
And remember that a 2:12 will probably make the team...
Is there something about the course that is much tougher than the last 2 or 3 Trials? Comparatively few of the last 10 OMTs have had a third-place runner in 2:12. When they have, it is often due to weather. The weather should be conducive to a fair marathon and 4th place in 2012 was 2:09:58.
I realize that Meb-Hall-Abdi-Ritz are likely less strong (maybe much less strong) than they were 4 years ago, but it seems like there will be some 2:10-2:11 people to step into that void. Am I missing something?