Fast or slow, True will be the top American.
If it's fast, you could argue Rupp. No denying something is wrong with Rupp this season. If the pace is sub 13:10 (no chance), Rupp will have trouble hanging from a mile out. If the pace is slow, Rupp will do what he did in the 10k and be there when the kicking starts, but nowhere to be found when the kicking is over.
As for Hill, you could say he has the best finish based on USAs, but even he said after the prelim that he didn't have as much left as he though. Hill hasn't proven he can hang with a fast pace or even a long drive from home off a modest pace.
Meanwhile, True pulled passed five or so guys on the home-straight easily, ran 13:06 earlier this year while "feeling bad", and won a DL race against good kickers.
My guess:
True 4th
Hill 7th
Rupp 9th