I am about to make a very bold prediction. Diego Estrada, in the next 2 years, will run a 2:05 marathon.

Deliahh wrote:

Recognizer of Boldness wrote:

That is indeed a bold prediction. Here's to hoping you are right (but I doubt it).

Thanks Recognizer of brilliance, ...I meant boldness. Let me ask you a question. Of these runners, who do you think has the best chance of running a 2:05 in the next three years:

Ryan Hall

Dathan Ritz

Meb

Diego Estrada

Aaron Braun

Chris Solinsky

Given that Hall is a 204 guy, he probably has the best shot.

Deliahh wrote:

Recognizer of Boldness wrote:

That is indeed a bold prediction. Here's to hoping you are right (but I doubt it).

Thanks Recognizer of brilliance, ...I meant boldness. Let me ask you a question. Of these runners, who do you think has the best chance of running a 2:05 in the next three years:

Ryan Hall

Dathan Ritz

Meb

Diego Estrada

Aaron Braun

Chris Solinsky

Ritz

Does NOT translate wrote:

A strong half marathon means nothing when it comes to the marathon. The best American example would be Todd Williams. Todd was aggressive and ran a similar half marathon. He never broke 2:11.

Curp may be a better example.

Estrada's half suggests high-2:07 potential. Americans usually perform worse in the marathon relative to their half marathon times, so 2:08-2:09 in the next few years would be pretty solid. 2:10~2:12 more realistic the first time out of the gate.

Would that be a Mexican record?

Does NOT translate wrote:

A strong half marathon means nothing when it comes to the marathon. The best American example would be Todd Williams. Todd was aggressive and ran a similar half marathon. He never broke 2:11. Tell me what is bettèr with Diego?

Todd Williams never ran a similar half marathon.

MEB HAS ALWAYS BEEN COACHED BY COACH BOB LARSEN

If Diego runs the marathon and continues to run under Vigil he will NEVER run under 2:12. Vigil has had ZERO success coaching any male marathoners over his 20 years of coaching pro's. He actually has had many failures on the women's side with only 1 success story.

This only stands out because Vigil has been a genius when it comes to Cross and distances below the marathon.

For those who keep harping on the low mileage of Diego's making it nearly impossible to run a 2:05 are forgetting that all of his training does not have to be running. He could supplement his running mileage with ellipitical training, cross fit, pool workouts, power walking, aerobicize, yoga, tae bo and Zumba.

Diego ran phenomenal this past weekend. But I don't think he has the goods to run under 2:10. He's a carb burning machine, and like others have mentioned, I don't think he can handle the training to switch to a more fuel efficient version of himself.

He seems to be on the half-marathon level of Mo Trafeh except Mo had a much bigger gas tank and didn't have Estrada's wheels. Yeah, I know Mo was drugged to the gills but Mo couldn't run a good marathon, even with his larger gas tank (and EPO).

And like someone else said, he's a slightly faster version of Todd Williams. And Williams also could never run a good marathon.

If anything, I feel better about Jared Ward's chances after this weekend. He seems to have a good gas tank and is better suited to the marathon than Estrada.

And lastly, Estrada said he didn't want to put in a bunch of work to run under 63 minutes. To run a marathon, you need months and months of hard work and he may not have the patience, nor the desire to do the training that's necessary.

I definitely think he will run the marathon at the Trials, because he would be stupid not to. But I see him hanging around 2:08-2:10 pace for 30-35k feeling all fine and dandy before his dreams do not become reality.

Southern Fried Chicken wrote:

If anything, I feel better about Jared Ward's chances after this weekend. He seems to have a good gas tank and is better suited to the marathon than Estrada.

And lastly, Estrada said he didn't want to put in a bunch of work to run under 63 minutes. To run a marathon, you need months and months of hard work and he may not have the patience, nor the desire to do the training that's necessary.

Wow. Alright, how do you judge that someone has a better "gas tank" than somebody else? And was it Ward's slower half than Diego or his 2:14 that makes you think he has a better chance at breaking 2:05 in the future?

And I think your second point was based off of a reading comprehension problem. He meant that the work he was putting in was so high-volume and intense that he didn't want to shoot for a time he believed was slower than he was capable of.

Southern Fried Chicken wrote:

Diego ran phenomenal this past weekend. But I don't think he has the goods to run under 2:10. He's a carb burning machine, and like others have mentioned, I don't think he can handle the training to switch to a more fuel efficient version of himself.

Fat burning is an old antiquated idea. Have you read how much fuel marathoners take in these days? See -

. The question today should be how well can they convert consumed fuel to usable fuel, not whether they can recruit fat as a fuel.

Diego Estrada will not finish a marathon in the next two years. If he does he certainly will not break 2:09

No, you're not. If you posted your real name, etc...then you'd be putting it out there. The guy is NOT running 2:05. Put your money where your mouth is or shut up. Bold Prediction: This site has shills who start garbage threads to create traffic as how can anyone who actually runs believe and post this garbage?

Deliahh wrote:

Unlike so many other US runners, Diego has guts to take it out hard and throw caution to the wind. Mark my words!

FatsNotAllThat wrote:

Southern Fried Chicken wrote:

Diego ran phenomenal this past weekend. But I don't think he has the goods to run under 2:10. He's a carb burning machine, and like others have mentioned, I don't think he can handle the training to switch to a more fuel efficient version of himself.

Fat burning is an old antiquated idea. Have you read how much fuel marathoners take in these days? See -

http://www.runnersworld.com/nutrition-for-runners/a-peek-inside-elite-marathon-fueling

. The question today should be how well can they convert consumed fuel to usable fuel, not whether they can recruit fat as a fuel.

That article has nothing to do with how much carbs Kenyans burn. Watch the top runners during a marathon as they go through an aid station, they take one or two swigs of their water bottle, then toss it. There's no way they come close to fueling their entire run with carbs, they just don't consume enough.

Kenyan's are running 59"30 for HM or better, which makes sense that they also run 2'05 or better.

Considering Diego is one of our better HM in recent history, I'd say running 59"45 may be a requisite to run under 2'05. Now, I know HM training is different than Marathon training, but all the greats run the HM really fast.

Sammy W, Haile Geb, Paul Tergat, Kipsang, Mutai... So being a carb-burning machine really just means you are faster at the HM and have greater potential in the Marathon. There's only been a few fast HMers who couldn't make it the Marathon distance, with Tadasse being first to mind.

Amerikano wrote:

Kenyan's are running 59"30 for HM or better, which makes sense that they also run 2'05 or better.

Considering Diego is one of our better HM in recent history, I'd say running 59"45 may be a requisite to run under 2'05. Now, I know HM training is different than Marathon training, but all the greats run the HM really fast.

Sammy W, Haile Geb, Paul Tergat, Kipsang, Mutai... So being a carb-burning machine really just means you are faster at the HM and have greater potential in the Marathon. There's only been a few fast HMers who couldn't make it the Marathon distance, with Tadasse being first to mind.

Most of the folks on here consider 2:05:59.9 to be 2:05 (I am not one of them, by the way). Assuming that this is what the OP meant then you really should be talking about what HM time you consider to be a requisite to run under 2:06.

That is all I have to say about this.

bold prediction wrote:

Diego Estrada will not finish a marathon in the next two years. If he does he certainly will not break 2:09

This.

FatsNotAllThat wrote:

Southern Fried Chicken wrote:

Diego ran phenomenal this past weekend. But I don't think he has the goods to run under 2:10. He's a carb burning machine, and like others have mentioned, I don't think he can handle the training to switch to a more fuel efficient version of himself.

Fat burning is an old antiquated idea. Have you read how much fuel marathoners take in these days? See -

http://www.runnersworld.com/nutrition-for-runners/a-peek-inside-elite-marathon-fueling

. The question today should be how well can they convert consumed fuel to usable fuel, not whether they can recruit fat as a fuel.

Ever heard of Renato Canova

Does NOT translate wrote:

A strong half marathon means nothing when it comes to the marathon.

It strongly indicates something.

A while back I made a list of all the sub hour half guys and looked up their best marathon time. I posted the results here (maybe you can find it). More than half had run 2:07 or better, but there were a number with what could only be considered crappy times given their half credentials.

But still, a sub hour half marathon is an indicator of 2:07 or better marathon potential.