Let's investigate the race course 'time bias' further.You agree the Philly Half Marathon course is flat, comparable to that of the Berlin or Paris course elevations, correct?Here is Philly Half elevation:http://cdn.runrocknroll.competitor.com/files/2011/03/phi11-elevation-half.pdfHere is Berlin Full elevation:http://www.mapmyrun.com/de/tiergarten-berlin/berlin-marathon-route-588212Here is Paris Full elevation:http://www.mapmyrun.com/so/ceeldheer-galguduud/paris-marathon-route-12056866According to your source (http://arrs.net/TB_Mara.htm), ARRS lists the following Race Time Bias' (RTB): Paris..... -90.5 sec Berlin.... -81.0 sec NYCM... +82.8 sec[Note, the above RTB are combined men's and women's RTB values averaged (for mixed men/women races), so the women's RTB would be expected to be a a little higher (in magnitude), and the men's RTB would be expected to be a little lower than the listed RTB average.]Thus, the NYCM is biased 160-170 seconds than the flat Paris, Berlin or comparable Philly Half (extended out to full) courses. Thus, as I previously stated, biasing "NYCM to be 2-3 minutes more difficult (over the Full) than a flat Philly course" is not unreasonable, per your source's data.
survey says wrote:
Sciatica Road wrote:Judging NYCM to be 2-3 minutes more difficult (over the Full) than a flat Philly course, we peg Kastor at 2:29-2:30 for NYCM.
The ARRS has NYCM at 51 to 55 sec. slow based on the total history of performances there. That puts Deena at under 2:27:30.
http://arrs.net/HP_NYCMa.htm