SHALANE 2:18.xx at Berlin Marathon.

Does Berlin use male pacesetters for the women? If so she may have a shot at 2:20 high. I don't see her ever going below 2:20.

JH will be the next American female under 2:20

not sure but the berlin marathon site has shown it on cable for years and there are leaderboards with splits, announcer will probably be in german though.

Berlin has been shown live on Universal Sports for several years.

British commentators, (Cram & Storey ?).

I have viewed for years, live at 2 am Central Time.

More importantly, has she got that Dunkin Donuts sponsorship yet? Clearly trying by tweeting them every time she is in Boston

If she's going to run the AR, it's not going to be after a couple of other fast, flat races. Experience doesn't matter, but being healthy and fit does. The last decade has shown that most runners only have a few good marathons in them. Besides, she's one of the best 10k track runners in history; she knows how to hammer a hard, even pace.

Ahh ... the old "Boston is faster than average" argument ... has been overtaken by the "Boston '14 is the best course, pacing, temp, and everything else imaginable" argument.

Nice.

You chose to ignore both questions,

1. Do you believe that all 6 runners that beat her when she ran well at Boston are capable of 2:18?

2. What races since April indicate that she is ready for a 4 minute pr?

All smoke no fire wrote:

You chose to ignore both questions,

1. Do you believe that all 6 runners that beat her when she ran well at Boston are capable of 2:18?

2. What races since April indicate that she is ready for a 4 minute pr?

Since when does every post on a thread have to propose an answer to the original question? I just thought the previous poster's reasoning was problematic.

For what it's worth I don't think Shalane will run 2:18 in Berlin, but I don't think it's crazy for her to try, either. As for question 1, I don't believe so. But I also don't think she was the 7th best in that race, and I think she'll do better on a flat course. As for question 2, no races at all, though that's not unusual for someone who's now a dedicated marathoner.

*stipe wrote:

I don't know if she can do it or not. But if she runs AR pace, she will be pretty much leading the charge. Most female champions have been in the low 2:20's. So if she is running sub 2:20 pace, there will not be too many women with her.

Yeah except for ALL OF THE KENYANS

Qualls wrote:

Calling it Now, She's definitely gonna FSH.

You're calling nothing unless you register your name and use it. Otherwise you're just hoping to sound like a genius...which you are not.

See what I did there? Anyone can be Qualls:):):) But if she blows up, you won't exist anymore and will then start posting under a different handle. Gosh you're smart:)

Rund al'Thor wrote:

Ahh ... the old "Boston is faster than average" argument ... has been overtaken by the "Boston '14 is the best course, pacing, temp, and everything else imaginable" argument.

Nice.

In the women's race, that would appear to be quite close to the truth:

"Overall, the top 10 female finishers all ran the fastest time for place in the history of the Boston Marathon, with American Desiree Linden’s 10th-place time of 2:23:54 more than three minutes ahead of the previous fastest time recorded for that spot. Indeed, places six through 11 are the fastest women’s times for place in the history of the sport."

"Joan Samuelson, 56, unofficially became the fastest 56-year-old woman in history with her time of 2:52:11."

*stipe wrote:

I don't know if she can do it or not. But if she runs AR pace, she will be pretty much leading the charge. Most female champions have been in the low 2:20's. So if she is running sub 2:20 pace, there will not be too many women with her.

________________________

She SHOULD be on the cover of magazines. She is HOT!!

Other than Goucher, name a female marathoner with the combo of her times and her looks (other than Goucher)

Right, she is hot hot hot.

__________________________________________

It was a very fast day for the top elite women at Boston, but most people who were there will tell you that the conditions were not great. I felt warm within the first mile, and I started in Wave 1. Obviously, the elite women started a half hour earlier, and the temperature was significantly cooler at that point in the day. I ended the race with a severe sunburn and was more dehydrated than I've ever been at the end of a marathon. I took fluids at all stations, BTW, and I ran in two of the warm years at Chicago.

Point being, I do not think the speediness of this year's women's race had to do with the net downhill and point-to-point. That tends to happen in cool temps with a significant tailwind. If Berlin really is a fast course and the conditions are good, that's probably enough to shave 1-2 minutes off of her time, even if she's in the same shape.

Good points GD and Long Sox.

My only point is that Boston '14 was not ideal conditions, nor is Boston the fastest course from year to year. It has the potential to be very fast, but '14 was not the perfect storm by any means - despite the solid top 10 performances.

What does it mean for Shalane's Berlin marathon? ... No idea. I think she's capable of a PR and I hope she has a great race but I wouldn't extrapolate too far based on her Boston race.

adsfasdf wrote:

*stipe wrote:

I don't know if she can do it or not. But if she runs AR pace, she will be pretty much leading the charge. Most female champions have been in the low 2:20's. So if she is running sub 2:20 pace, there will not be too many women with her.

Yeah except for ALL OF THE KENYANS

Of course no women (Kenyan or otherwise) ran under 2:20 last year or in 2012.

Shalane is gonna get on the talk show circuit, be super nice to Runner's World, yakkety yakk about how she gonna Fvck Sh-t Up!. Right up to the starting gun.

My hunch is that most of the naysayers here have never raced a marathon. Courses and conditions can be vastly different.

To not a tard:

I have consistently posted solely as Iwanttokillmyself. See other threads.

I find it disappointing that you'd rather just misquote me than address what I actually wrote. I believe Shalane Flanagan is a superb athlete and I am betting she will go sub-2:20. The AR is tough, but I'm pulling for her.