Rudisha lost because of TACTICS, not fitness.

Word is that Rudisha was thinking of a 2010 African Champs scenario where he went 1.42.84 (51.59, 51.25) but misjudged the second 200 this time out. The damp weather was also not too agreeable for Rudisha, doesn't he tend to lose in the rain? All in all, a GREAT performance from a guy who underwent knee surgery not so long ago. Expect 1.42 low in a month.

EvanJ wrote:

It's really hard to tell the difference between a 58 59 or 60 first lap.

groan, don't remind me. I always nail the pace in workouts, almost never in races. Three seconds slow last time out.

Love this thread. The 800 is so fun to deconstruct.

It's true that Amos was badly boxed in, but without parity in the field that strat breaks up as the pace quickens around the final bend(s) and Amos obviously is able to kick ahead of this field right now. It's true he had no momentum as he broke out of the box, but he hadn't had to make any moves up to that point. Going out slow was a disastrous strategy against him, so even a perfect pick at 750 would only have delayed his kick... we all saw how fast he ran down DR. It didn't take him 50m.

He ran the way he did tactically BECAUSE he wasn't fit. If he was fit he would have blitzed a 49-50 first lap and Amos's kick would have been in vain.

Bad Wigins wrote:

EvanJ wrote:

It's really hard to tell the difference between a 58 59 or 60 first lap.

groan, don't remind me. I always nail the pace in workouts, almost never in races. Three seconds slow last time out.

Whats your time?

Do you ever run 400s in training in race pace?

Of course. But a given effort doesn't produce the same pace in a race as it does in a workout. It is easy to misjudge, especially if you don't get a 200m split or know how fast everyone else is going.

Seems we are overlooking one key point:

The reason Rudisha lost is because right now Amos is a better 800m runner than he is.

There was NO scenario Rudisha was beating Amos last night. Amos mentally knows he can beat Rudisha at the moment and Rudisha knows this as well.

Whether it was 48 seconds or 55 seconds Amos was winning that race.

Rudisha unfortunately has not proved he can do anything other than win races from the front - when have you EVER seen Rudisha sit on a shoulder and accelerate like Amos did last night to win a race? Never.

In saying that I thought the best chance for Rudisha was to still make it sub 50 at the bell and hope that somehow Amos was tired and dipping in form after Monaco - running a no-mans-land 52.5 first lap made no sense.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Of course. But a given effort doesn't produce the same pace in a race as it does in a workout. It is easy to misjudge, especially if you don't get a 200m split or know how fast everyone else is going.

You say of course, but a lot of people avoid learning to run the first 400m relaxed in race pace. They do plenty of 200s and 300s, and a few hard 400s in training, but rarely run a few 400s with long rest relaxed and on pace.

Its easy to misjudge, sure, but do enough of 800 pace and you get the feeling. If youve trained for years, and right, you should be able to easily run the first 200 in correct pace. Second nature.

Hows it going with Vigil training, done the 600s?

Star wrote:

You know what I know?

If I raced Amos, any tactic I use would fail.

Let's say I race him, go out in 52.7 and lose. (I once could do that)

That doesn't mean there is a better tactic that I could have used to beat him.

OK, now you are really reaching.

You get that Rudisha in 1:42-1:43 shape is different than you in the high 1:40s, right?

wejo wrote:

After seeing Amos get totally boxed, have no momentum, and then still destroy Rudisha the last 50, going out slow was clearly not the right strategy.

Wejo agrees with me! Wejo agrees with me!

In Lignano wrote:

Word is that Rudisha was thinking of a 2010 African Champs scenario where he went 1.42.84 (51.59, 51.25) but misjudged the second 200 this time out. The damp weather was also not too agreeable for Rudisha, doesn't he tend to lose in the rain? All in all, a GREAT performance from a guy who underwent knee surgery not so long ago. Expect 1.42 low in a month.

I think you're right. He was out in 24.5 or so, I believe, probably quicker than desired but he had to get the pole position. Then put on the brakes massively from 200-400.

He does suffer in the rain.

For sure 1:42 this season. Stockholm?

ten and six wrote:

Love this thread. The 800 is so fun to deconstruct.

It's true that Amos was badly boxed in, but without parity in the field that strat breaks up as the pace quickens around the final bend(s) and Amos obviously is able to kick ahead of this field right now. It's true he had no momentum as he broke out of the box, but he hadn't had to make any moves up to that point. Going out slow was a disastrous strategy against him, so even a perfect pick at 750 would only have delayed his kick... we all saw how fast he ran down DR. It didn't take him 50m.

Great post ^

causation wrote:

He ran the way he did tactically BECAUSE he wasn't fit. If he was fit he would have blitzed a 49-50 first lap and Amos's kick would have been in vain.

For the love of Colm, do you even read the thread before responding???

NOBODY IS SAYING HE SHOULD HAVE BLITZED A 49-SECOND LAP.

absolutely false. Elite runners know(or should) well within .5 seconds what their pace is. You run multiple 200s in practice for this very reason. In addition what is being left out is you don't break the race down into halves it is broken down into at least 4 parts. @ 49 second opener with a 23 first 200 is a whole different world from a 49 second first lap off a 25 first 200.

oldhalfmileguy wrote:

absolutely false. Elite runners know(or should) well within .5 seconds what their pace is. You run multiple 200s in practice for this very reason. In addition what is being left out is you don't break the race down into halves it is broken down into at least 4 parts. @ 49 second opener with a 23 first 200 is a whole different world from a 49 second first lap off a 25 first 200.

I don't know who you're responding to, but I agree. Rudisha ran about 24.5/28.0 for 52-mid I believe. This allowed Amos tuck in and follow the target on his back all the way to the straight.

causation wrote:

He ran the way he did tactically BECAUSE he wasn't fit. If he was fit he would have blitzed a 49-50 first lap and Amos's kick would have been in vain.

Amos is the one! Fantastic kicker. There's not much anyone can do against Amos this season. Tactics, tactics ...don't matter when one is the best 800m runner at this point in time.

Barakus Obama wrote:

You say of course, but a lot of people avoid learning to run the first 400m relaxed in race pace. They do plenty of 200s and 300s, and a few hard 400s in training, but rarely run a few 400s with long rest relaxed and on pace.

You miss the point. Nothing you do during a workout genuinely simulates a race. The pressure and adrenaline before a race alter your perception of both effort and speed compared to workouts. If you don't race a lot, i.e. aren't in high school, college or elite, any pace other than suicidal feels easy and slow at least until 300m.

Wigins, what are your times like? It sounds like our running is in a similar place.

wejo wrote:

commonwealth games 800 played exactly to form.

After seeing Amos get totally boxed, have no momentum, and then still destroy Rudisha the last 50, going out slow was clearly not the right strategy.

When he tried it I thought, "well this is at least something different". I didn't think running away from Amos was going to work.

Once the gun went off, I started wondering what strategy Rudisha could use to win. I don't think there was one. If he really wanted to be different he could have let someone else take the lead at 200. I think we would have seen the same result.

If you told me before hand it will be a slow race, 50 meters from the finish Rudisha will have a 5 meters lead, I would have bet a lot of money he'd win.

rudisha always has a lousy strategy. he's predictable and he can't follow a rabbit properly. when he is in 139-140 shape and everybody else can go in 142 or 143 front running works just fine, there are penalties for running in the pack too, running wide, getting boxed in, running at someone else's pace.

now that there is a 141 guy in amos on the block, he can just sit and kick on rudisha. rudisha just needs to get back in tip top shape and learn to follow a rabbit to 500m, then he can do what he wants, which is run 139. amos should be toast at least unless he improves a low, and he might too.

DUH.

of course by now, you don't want to bet too much on rudisha in cold wet races, particularly when he's not 100%.