Could a high school girls dream team have won ncaas?

apebkuzmlqgbkq wrote:

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Yes, but I still think Merry Kane would score two touchdowns.

I was curious about how some of the past Nike XNX runners did this year. So I picked the year 2010 and and went down the list from the Nike XNX and comparing it to this years DI results.

I had to to down to 22nd place in the Nike results to find seven runners that ran in this years NCAA DI race. I don't have time to look at DII or DIII. There could be red shirts and injuries as well.

I have the name, Nike Place, and DI NCAA place from 2013

3 - Amy-Eloise Neale 121

5 - Haley Pierce 52

8 - Katie Knight 128

11 - Samantha Nadel 47

12 - Kayla Beattie 90

15 - Annmarie Maag 170

22 - Stephanie Bulder 112

A lot can happen in 3 years as you can see.

If they raced over 5k the HS girls would probably win because of their depth at 4 and 5, but over 6k I would give it to Providence. Btw, that NXN course is rated as tough and most NCAA 5k races on tough courses are won in the upper 16s. Abbey could probably run sub-16 on that NXN course, but there is no NCAA team (this year) that could average 17 flat at PM. - That should tell you all you need to know.

With that said, since the top H.S. girls only average about 50mpw, that extra 1k would make a big difference. Contrary to what some people have said, Emma Bates and no NCAA athlete would lose to a H.S. athlete if they can help it. (pride!) Bates certainly was not prepared to run fast in early November and perhaps she was coming off of a hard training block, but when she got beat by a high schooler, she was running all out.

Everyone is writing Efraimson in as a top5 girl, but lets just imagine that the NXN race on Saturday was 6km. I doubt she would have hung on to Cranny/Baxter long enough to outkick them.

So now, under than assumption, we're saying that the third best 6km runner at NXN should be top10 NCAA?

I think y'all are getting caught up in 4:15s and 4:16s and forgetting that we're talking about 4x that race in mud.

I think Cain could have a shot at top 10, probably hanging tough and outkicking 5-10 girls in the last 600m to move out of the pack and into the top 10.

Baxter looks to have a great pedigree for XC and would be top 20 as well.

Cranny and Efraimson would be battling for AA spots, maybe doing the same thing as Cain and outkicking some girls to jump 10 spots late and sneaking into the top40-50.

And any fifth girl would be hoping to be top 100.

As another poster pointed about, PC had three girls solo 15'40s already on the track. None of these girls could do that on the track, which makes the point that they aren't even comparable taking them off of their preferred surface and adding ANOTHER 3.5 minutes.

I would say it is possible. If you take the top 5 freshman women and put them on one team this is how they will finish.

30 Erin Finn 18pts Michigan

34 Megan Curham 21pts Princeton

37 Bethanie Brown 23pts Iowa State

42 Maria Larsson 26pts Arizona

50 Rachele Schulist 33pts Michigan State

121 Total

Providence 141 Total

Now these women did improve over their freshman year so the above point total they scored will be lower than if they ran in this year's NCAA's with their HS ability level. But, this does not assume having a top girl like Mary C, who would score under 10 points (no idea, don't pay enough attention)

Not a definitive answer, but I would conclude it is very possible.

ifyouthinkso wrote:

I would say it is possible. If you take the top 5 freshman women and put them on one team this is how they will finish.

30 Erin Finn 18pts Michigan

34 Megan Curham 21pts Princeton

37 Bethanie Brown 23pts Iowa State

42 Maria Larsson 26pts Arizona

50 Rachele Schulist 33pts Michigan State

121 Total

Providence 141 Total

Now these women did improve over their freshman year so the above point total they scored will be lower than if they ran in this year's NCAA's with their HS ability level. But, this does not assume having a top girl like Mary C, who would score under 10 points (no idea, don't pay enough attention)

Not a definitive answer, but I would conclude it is very possible.

This is an interesting way to look at it but keep in mind that these were the 5 best performing freshmen that probably all ran a really good race. With a team of 7 of the top high schoolers, if a couple don't have "on" days then their fifth could hurt them.

Woody Allen wrote:

I brought this up in another thread, but I went further and said I thought that a race between the 5 top HS girls and the Top NCAA women would be close and I thought that the HS'ers could win. Of course I got called an idiot which I will not debate!

Here is what I think could happen:

D'Ag

Cain

Efrmsn

Bates

Cranny

Avery

Baxter

Cuffe

Lipari

O'Keefe (or other)

27 to 28 … HS'ers win

That's quite the fantasy world you live in. First of all, if you think Cain is in top form right now you are kidding yourself. NCAA would put their 7 in the top 8 (whichever high schooler had the best day would come in around 4th) and crush the high schoolers.

Also keep in mind not all of those runners were US HS'ers the year before. Rachele Schulist was a redshirt freshman, and Maria Larsson is from Sweden.

The top 5 HS girls this year probably average around 16:00 for the track 5K. Can Providence top that? It would be close....

math is always your friend wrote:

The top 5 HS girls this year probably average around 16:00 for the track 5K. Can Providence top that? It would be close....

Agreed. Actually, I think they might be a little better than a 16:00 average - of course, that would be if they all ran it, and ran it enough times that they ran well at least once.

The current high school dream team could win NCAAs. Sure, there is the question if they could all put it together over 6k on the same day. But I'd take them right now coming off their respective high school seasons. Yes, they would need Cain. 6k would be daunting. And running against the top collegiate runners would be double daunting. But I'd give them a good shot. I would not pick this same group at the end of a collegiate season. Too many things change. Adapting to school, training rigors, etc... I'd give them a very good shot right now and a much smaller chance as a college freshen dream team.

Let's finish this collective thought by pointing out that no other HS group in U.S. history could even challenge on this question. Most previous HS girls' top five could barely have averaged sub-17:00.

Of the top 3 at NXN, I think Cranny would realistically be #1 at 6k. She looked extremely smooth off Baxter's shoulder and obliterated her at the end of the race. Had they been running 6k instead of 5k, Ephraimson wouldn't have been in the picture. I could see Cain, Cranny, and Baxter all having a shot at top 10, but realistically, they wouldn't all do it. I'd figure Ephraimson would be 15th at best after fading a bit at the end. I haven't paid any attention to girls XC aside from those mentioned above, so I'm not sure who the 5th runner would be. It doesn't appear that anyone from NXN could've gotten the job done, but maybe if they brought the upcoming FL winner, they could nab it.

If it were a dual meet, certainly. If the HS all-stars were a team in the full NCAA field at 6000m, then probably not.

Bloody Mary Cain wrote:

This is an interesting way to look at it but keep in mind that these were the 5 best performing freshmen that probably all ran a really good race. With a team of 7 of the top high schoolers, if a couple don't have "on" days then their fifth could hurt them.

watchout wrote:

Also keep in mind not all of those runners were US HS'ers the year before. Rachele Schulist was a redshirt freshman, and Maria Larsson is from Sweden.

Both good points I did not factor in. Thanks

There seems to be some confusion here. I believe the OP was asking if a High School dream team could win NCAA's. I think the answer is a pretty obvious YES! It would have been close, but I think they edge out Providence. However, others are misunderstanding or misinterpreting and thinking it is a competition between the high school all stars and the collegiate all stars. In that case do the HS's win? Of course not, No!

Hope this clears things up. The bottom line is, there are some very good high school ladies out there. Perhaps the best we've seen in a long time. Now let's see what happens over the next few years.

yes, absolutely.

I believe that Eframson, Cranny, Baxter and Cain would all have been in the top 10 at NCAA's this year. Without a doubt in the top 20. Throw in O'Keefe, that team would have crushed providence.

I think it would be a close team finish, but the High School All Americans would fall off in the last 1K of the NCAA race. You can't go comparing the winning college team to the best race times of the High School All Americans. There is a very good chance that two of the five high school runners would not have a good race. Every coach knows that you are very lucky if only one of your top five runners has a bad race. That is reality, so you can't go comparing the actual NCAA race by Providence with a best case scenario of the high school All Americans. A reality scenario would give Providence the win over the HS girls.

This year providence rolls out 1 Sisson, Emily 15:40.62 2 Collins, Sarah 15:41.00S 3 Nagel, Laura 15:42.60 and last year in addition to those they also hadRoecker, Samantha 16:49.15and32 Greany, Shelby 10:16.07 (3000m st)And scoring for them in XC this yearGrace Thek 16:54 a couple years backCatarina Rocha who was a 10:26 runner in HS last yearFor reference Katarina Coogan (15:50), Laura Docherty (16:15) were right in front of Rocha and Olivia Pratt (16:30) was right behindI am guessing averaging sub 16 is reasonable. The big question would be can they get all 5 runners sub 16:15.Finally I am not 100% the HS girls could average sub 16. Sure Cain has that fast 5000m, but the gap between her and the rest is pretty large. Baxter has not shown the speed (she was a 10:10 2 miler) and Cranny and Efraimson have shown speed but neither of them has run fast (sub 10 for a 2 mile). Some of that is opportunity but some is that they are probably better at shorter distances right now.It should be a fun outdoor track season. There were a lot of freshman, soph, and juniors in the 1500/3200m that are coming back who hopefully can run some all time top 10 track marks this spring.

math is always your friend wrote:

The top 5 HS girls this year probably average around 16:00 for the track 5K. Can Providence top that? It would be close....