Cerake obviously has a lot going for him, and we can't deny the genetics play a huge role.
Here are some random notes that may be relevant to the thread.
- I have read Epstein's book, and yes, it was awesome.
- Cerake needs to improve approximately another 20 - 25 seconds per mile in the 5000m to be competitive on an international level. He clearly responds to training very quickly, which is important, but we don't know what his ceiling is, which is even more important.
- It's great he was born and raised "at altitude", but Denver hardly qualifies for significant altitude when you look at the impact it has on influencing oxygen saturation among residents. It's a good base, but where he chooses to live after HS will be more important.
- Having grown up at very modest altitude, and with genetics that are adapted to it, it would be a shame if Cerake goes to college at sea-level. NAU is one of the very few places he should be looking at. I don't think there are any other top collegiate programs at proper elevation. This may sound ridiculous given CUBuffs success, but there is a massive difference physiologically between 5200' and 7000'.
- A solo 14:46 for 5K at 5000' is very fast, but for a long term resident it's probably equivalent to a solo 14:30 5K (on a XC course, not track) at sea-level.
- Rudisha ran 1:42.12 in Nairobi (same elevation as Denver within a few hundred feet, Nairobi barely higher) and Isaiah Koech ran 13:09 for 5000m at their Olympic trials.
- Cerake improved about 60 seconds over 5K from his sophomore to junior year and now 30 seconds from his junior to senior year.
- Genetics matter a lot, to say the least, and when looking at groups it's easy to make very confident statements. However, when looking at any one individual in regards to distance running you can no longer make a blanket statement of "you have to be from east africa to be competitive internationally."
- One of the genetic traits people don't talk about enough, because it's near impossible to objectively measure, is mental fortitude, or ability to stay focused under extreme duress. It's something Haile G is talking about with today's front page quote. Whether Cerake has that or not remains to be seen.
- There is a 15 year old (who looks 15 no less) white kid in the US who does have that mental fortitude, has run as fast as Cerake (albeit at sea-level) and has yet to use his living/training-at-altitude-wildcard.