This is the greatest marathon field ever assembled. I think the pacers should take them through the half in 1:01:45 then see what happens when the reins come off.
This is the greatest marathon field ever assembled. I think the pacers should take them through the half in 1:01:45 then see what happens when the reins come off.
Here is our short article/take on it:
races with multiple superstars are very unpredictable. they could just as easily run 2:06 as a WR. it can be tough to get a unified pacemaking squad together if makau has a different plan than kipsang or mutai for example. i'll definitely set the alarm clock early for that one
I can see Dibaba running in the 2:16-2:17 range if the weather is favorable.
it's time for abshero to redeem himself. prove it to the world that his marathon debut wasn't a fluke
Canova>God wrote:
The Baby Faced Destroyer is making her marathon debut. This could be something special. It will be interesting to see what Kiprotich does against these guys coming of that unexpected Gold. If everything goes right there is a chance we could see the world record go down. I would not be very surprised if Kipsang runs around 2:03:40. This is going to be one hell of a marathon.
This race will sure be interesting! No more hiding for Makau. Just wait...he will pull out with an injury. G. Mutai and Kipsang are fearless and it will be a great chance for them to square-off. If in shape and no injury at all, they will go 1-2. And behind them Kebede then Abshiro. The latter two could upset the form-book if the two Kenyans are not on top of their game. The best Olympic champ will get is 4th. The person sure to impress is Martin Lel. His patience never seem to let him down. I would love to see him run a 2:04 PR this time.
Is Dubai the fastest marathon with low humidity, when the temps are good? Fives guys, including a 19-yr old, just went sub-2:05 at Dubai.
World Class Hobby Jogger wrote:
it's time for abshero to redeem himself. prove it to the world that his marathon debut wasn't a fluke
Abshero is a great athlete with great potential but times recorded in Dubai are not reliable as seen from yesterday's results. Last night we had at least two debutants running 2:04 again. That definitely shows there is something fishy about this course. These guys cannot reproduce same fast times elsewhere just like witnessed from last year's crew. I would add at least 30 secs to Dubai's time to get what an athlete is really worth. So Abshero's time should convert to something like 2:04:53.
Another thing to note is that some runners run their lifetime best in their debut and never run faster after that. Abshero and maybe Dennis Kimetto could be that kind of an athlete. Evans Rutto ran 2:05:50 in his debut in Chicago back in, I think, 2003. He won the race and after that he continued running well winning London and I think he repeated Chicago in 2004. But he never ever broke 2:06 again. That is just my thought.
What a field Dave Bedford has put on. This has to be the greatest field ever. Just hope they all stay injury free and weather is good. I'm not even interested in the time. I'm just looking forward to what happens after the pacemakers drop out. Who will make the move or will it be another 5 man sprint. London is king!
what about dubai? wrote:
Is Dubai the fastest marathon with low humidity, when the temps are good? Fives guys, including a 19-yr old, just went sub-2:05 at Dubai.
Like I said in above post, I think there is something wrong with this course. If those guys are ran 2:04 last night, I wonder what the likes of Makau, Geoffrey Mutai, Kipsang and even Kebede can run there. Possibly they could run under 2:02. I know there is only about two turns the whole course with the rest of it straight and reaaaallly flat. But I doubt the accuracy of the distance.
Tirunesh will not run 2:16- 2:17 like some poster say. No one can do that but paula. Tirunesh 2:19:18 I think.
hi kevin boy racer. Are you a new guy? You don't sound like Batman and Mattman. I'll assume you aren't and take it easy on you ;D
kevin boy racer wrote:
Tirunesh will not run 2:16- 2:17 like some poster say. No one can do that but paula. Tirunesh 2:19:18 I think.
I agree with you. The marathon is very different. People whom we have expected to make an immediate impact ended up disappointing. For instance the Zersenay Tadese who has not even broken 2:10. Mary Keitany was expected to immediately do well on her debut but she ended up running 2:29 and finishing third. So I would give Tirunesh at least three marathons for her to run a time in 2:17 high-2:18 but not 2:16. To run 2:16 is not a joke.
Kapcherop wrote:
Like I said in above post, I think there is something wrong with this course. If those guys are ran 2:04 last night, I wonder what the likes of Makau, Geoffrey Mutai, Kipsang and even Kebede can run there. Possibly they could run under 2:02. I know there is only about two turns the whole course with the rest of it straight and reaaaallly flat. But I doubt the accuracy of the distance.
I want to understand you correctly: you think Dubai is about 500m short of 42195m and yet Gebrselassie could only run 2:04:53 in Dubai, despite having run 2:04:27 and 2:03:59 in Berlin four months before and eight months afterwards? If Dubai were short as you say it is, he clearly should have run 60-80 seconds faster than he ran in Berlin.
Left Said Fred wrote:
I want to understand you correctly: you think Dubai is about 500m short of 42195m and yet Gebrselassie could only run 2:04:53 in Dubai, despite having run 2:04:27 and 2:03:59 in Berlin four months before and eight months afterwards? If Dubai were short as you say it is, he clearly should have run 60-80 seconds faster than he ran in Berlin.
I didn't say it is short by that much. And it is just an assumption based on evidence which everyone can see. When Geb ran 2:04:53, the conditions may not have been perfect. Also Geb may not have been 100% in shape. The guy next to him probably finished in 2:07 or slower. The problem I have with this course is why athletes who run here do not run as fast elsewhere. In fact they struggle. Remember Tadese Tola, the guy who finished 3rd yesterday. He ran last October in Amsterdam but struggled. Everyone else seemed to do the same(Jonathan Maiyo in Berlin, Abshero and Dino in Olympics). Only exception is Markos Geneti. I know he is a quality runner.
The 23 yr old that just won dubai has run at least three sub-59:40 halfs, including one in which he lost to Geoffrey Mutai by one second. He looks legit on paper, no?
what about dubai? wrote:
The 23 yr old that just won dubai has run at least three sub-59:40 halfs, including one in which he lost to Geoffrey Mutai by one second. He looks legit on paper, no?
In that race you have to look at the top five who did not split until the last 200m. If Lelisa had won by a minute or at least 30 secs, your argument would make sense. And running sub 60min half does not mean that you are a legit marathoner as I explained earlier. Half marathon and full marathon are two completely different things.
No one has said a fast half guarantees a fast marathon. But it is not unreasonable for a fast half offering evidence of fast marathon potential. A sub-59:40 half equates to an 82 VDOT, translating to a 2:05 marathon potential.
You keep throwing out suspicion on the Dubai course length. Do you it might be possible, with the easy proliferation of GPS watches, that the thousands of runners running Dubai may have raised the issue of a short course, if it existed? How about the folks behind the Frankfort, Berlin, Paris, London, Chicago, Rotterdam, etc. marathons, that may have possibly done their own checking of the course legitimacy? Where is the contrary evidence?
Pooped myself a little when I saw the london field...
In reality, rather than Dubai being short, there may be something to the fact that runners in other marathons cover as much as a quarter mile over-distance, due to the inability to run the least tangents inherent in a course with a lot of turns. Conversely, as you said, that problem is minimized at Dubai because it is a relatively straight course.