2012 NCAA X COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIPS: discussions, spoilers, and predictions

Ordinarily, missing time at that point in the season would not be a problem, but it makes me more uncertain this year than normal (despite other top potential, e.g., Rogers) not being there. On the other hand, I underestimated AD'A last year during the pre-Trials period and she came pretty good, so.... However, if she does not race at Regionals, it would be hard for her to win NCAAs, in part because her team will be more problematic and, of course, she cannot go as an individual. Also, it is hard to 'race fit' at that point (look at Mo Ahmed, who is likely in great shape, getting third at Big Tens.

D'Agostino is a gamer. She wants it and knows she is capable. She is racing Regionals and will probably run conservatively, then do her best to get as fit as possible for Nats. I wouldn't count against her, but she'll have to be on her game to beat Hollander and Saina.

At Mt. Sac in the 10k Kithuka led the whole way and nobody wanted to run...plus he had the 5k next day...so he backed off on that 10k...trust me he could have ran mid 27's if pushing the whole way. By the way he came back the next night and ran 13:27 and led that most of the way as well. He is better at cross...Kithuka for the win baby.

how could you possibly have mulherin losing to forrester and colley after he handled them at ACCs so easily?

I still think Stephen Sambu has a chance at winning. He's been within 1-2 seconds of Lawi every race and I think he's waiting until Nats to really kick at the end.

I definitely think Sambu gets better the farther her goes, but if it comes to a kick Sambu will almost always lose. I would like to see him get the W because he gets second in everything. Also, I think the AZ guys will be able to handle KK. He's not done anything they're not capable of yet.

That's the most ridiculous thing I've hard on this thread. He purposely backed off in the 10000m to win the 5000m. LOL! Mt. Sac is an invitational meet and there was no point be assigned so why purposely lose your first race and not be guaranteed to win the 2nd. Get real.

Kithuka may win NCAA X but he didn't purposely lose the 10000m he just got outran at Mt. Sac by Stephen Sambu.

1. Lawi Lalang

2. Stephen Sambu

3. Anthony Rotich

4. Kennedy Kithuka

5. Henry Lelei

KENYA BELIEVE the Kenyans will bust a move and sweep top 5 and add

6. Paul Chelimo

Did i say he purposely lost?? no i did not...I said he backed off the pace and then in the back of his mind he had the 5k and it got away from him a bit...kennedy is best when he goes hard start to finish

little violin wrote:

I definitely think Sambu gets better the farther her goes, but if it comes to a kick Sambu will almost always lose. I would like to see him get the W because he gets second in everything. Also, I think the AZ guys will be able to handle KK. He's not done anything they're not capable of yet.

My exact sentiments. This is what Lalang and Sambu do to fields

Thinking the AZ duo haven't improved their fitness since their track PBs is just plain silly, consider their dominant CRs despite controlled starts.

KK seems to be producing similar results but by going hard from the gun. Its not his time. Yet.

And am I the only one who thinks people are making too much of Ahmed's olympic berth? Surely the Kenyans he'll be up against at NCAAs could have made Canada's team under the same conditions he had?

Canada's top two were nothing to sneeze at, with the guys from Southern Utah and Wisconsin representing their countries well.

Bryne has been saying that Ahmed is on another level compared to last year, including when it ran 27:34 and in the Games. Given how par back in the Kenyan rankings the NCAA guys were and where the Kenyans that did race finished, it is not the sort of foregone conclusion we would have thought a couple of years ago (and if Bairu was running well -- he has a pretty high finish in World Cross -- Canada would have had three guys in that Final.

The Regional rankings had some realignment but the National ones are not yet published (due to hurricane issues?).

iknowkithuka wrote:

Did i say he purposely lost?? no i did not...I said he backed off the pace and then in the back of his mind he had the 5k and it got away from him a bit...kennedy is best when he goes hard start to finish

...

Do you have a fever? What's the difference then backing off when someone is challenging you and losing on purpose?

Kithuka went out hard got reeled in and then Sambu pulled away from him to win by over 12 secs.

As I said, "Kithuka could very well win the X title but don't point out that 10000m in which he got spanked." He lost because Stephen Sambu was the better runner at the Mt Sac 2012.

I agree with the other poster that the top 5 finisher could very well be Kenyas on the men's side and the best hope Americans have for a winner lays in the female field with Laura Hollander and Abby D'Agostino.

Not much talk about teams yet. OK State and Wisconsin looked very good at Conferences. Perhaps 20th ranked WI has a shot to repeat? Colorado looks solid but I'm guessing they'll be 2nd or 3rd. Stanford and Oregon and who else will be fighting for 4th?

homerTime wrote:

And am I the only one who thinks people are making too much of Ahmed's olympic berth? Surely the Kenyans he'll be up against at NCAAs could have made Canada's team under the same conditions he had?

The only Kenyan that would have made Canada's 10,000m team under the same conditions is Sambu. Kithuka was over 30 seconds off the standard and 44 seconds slower than Ahmed. Lalang's 13:08 5k converts to 27:36 10k but that is assuming his 5k and 10k capabilities being equal which they are not. So even Lawi would be far from a guarantee to run the 27:45 standard.

Its not like Canada sends 35 minute 10k runners to the Olympics, they still have to run standard. Only argument that can be made is that its easy in comparison to only US, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Eritria. Ahmed could have made the US olympic team in the 10k given that he beat US olympic team member Tegenkamp in London.

if anything people are not making enough of his olympic berth and according to this article he is in even better form than at the Olympics. He should be in the conversation for the ind. title

Here are the men (came out about the time I posted the previous message.

Rank Institution (FPV) Points Region Conference Cross Country Coach (Yr*)

Last Week

1 Oklahoma State (8) 356 Midwest Big 12 Dave Smith (7th)

1

2 Colorado (4) 350 Mountain Pac-12 Mark Wetmore (18th)

2

3 Stanford 322 West Pac-12 Chris Miltenberg (1st)

3

4 Iona 318 Northeast Metro Atlantic Ricardo Santos (5th)

4

5 Texas 297 South Central Big 12 John Hayes (6th)

7

6 Wisconsin 296 Great Lakes Big Ten Mick Byrne (5th)

20

7 BYU 283 Mountain West Coast Ed Eyestone (13th)

5

8 Oklahoma 277 Midwest Big 12 Martin Smith (8th)

6

9 Portland 272 West West Coast Rob Conner (23rd)

17

10 Arkansas 247 South Central SEC Chris Bucknam (5th)

9

11 Oregon 226 West Pac-12 Robert Johnson (1st)

8

12 Michigan 208 Great Lakes Big Ten Alex Gibby (3rd)

11

13 Princeton 207 Mid-Atlantic Ivy Jason Vigilante (1st)

23

14 Syracuse 200 Northeast Big East Chris Fox (8th)

16

15 Eastern Kentucky 197 Southeast Ohio Valley Rick Erdmann (34th)

13

16 New Mexico 188 Mountain Mountain West Joe Franklin (6th)

12

17 Virginia Tech 157 Southeast ACC Ben Thomas (12th)

21

18 Northern Arizona 136 Mountain Big Sky Eric Heins (6th)

22

19 Tulsa 128 Midwest Conference USA Steve Gulley (11th)

19

20 Indiana 113 Great Lakes Big Ten Ron Helmer (6th)

24

21 Virginia 101 Southeast ACC Peter Watson (1st)

NR

22 Columbia 97 Northeast Ivy Willy Wood (19th)

10

23 Florida State 95 South ACC Bob Braman (13th)

14

24 Georgetown 92 Mid-Atlantic Big East Patrick Henner (14th)

27

25 Arizona State 76 West Pac-12 Louie Quintana (12th)

RV

26 Georgia 70 South SEC Patrick Cunniff (1st)

28

27 UCLA 63 West Pac-12 Mike Maynard (4th)

15

28 Notre Dame 44 Great Lakes Big East Joe Piane (38th)

NR

29 Texas A&M 32 South Central SEC Pat Henry (9th)

29

29 Kansas 32 Midwest Big 12 Stanley Redwine (13th)

30

Great what Ahmed did on the track; however, what has he done this cross country season. Heck couldn't even win his conference, so exactly what has he done in cross country recently that indicate he could win the individual cross title?

AhmedWho wrote:

Great what Ahmed did on the track; however, what has he done this cross country season. Heck couldn't even win his conference, so exactly what has he done in cross country recently that indicate he could win the individual cross title?

Nothing. Feel better with that incisive analysis?

Unlike the Arizona guys and the Texas Tech guy, Ahmed runs on an actual team that has team goals to do stuff like win team titles, get on the podium, trivial crap like that.

Ahmed will only go with the loners/misfits if it factors into the team goal.

You make very little sense. If he is concerned with team goals then that's great and if he is running according then great team spirit for him; however, how does that make him a individual contender if his main concern is the team title.

Why didn't Ahmed win his conference title as the less points he score the better it is for his team? See you make very little sense!

Ahmed will run to his best ability and just like his conference he maybe top 10 or even top 5 at NCAA X but he won't be in the hunt for the individual title.