What will humanity's final mile WR be?

ijk wrote:

Darwin wrote:

One cannot put a limit to such a record. Evolution and its micro-processes are omnipresent and always occurring.

Yeah, except there isn't any more selective pressure to run fast.

Actually, there well could be. All you need is elites breeding with elites. The fact that the rest of humanity is not being eliminated/dying out because they are slow is irrelevant to this.

we need usain bolt to make a baby with patrick makau

A clean runner may be able to get between 3'39 and 3'41..we are a long way from it but it is possible..IF doping was allowed, then I'd say 3'31-'33..I would like to see the current one broken, but no one has been able to come close to it. Doping might have had something to do with it.

Some nerd wrote:

Considering the world is meant to end this year I would say 3.43. Can't see anyone breaking the record before December 12th.

Well that still leaves 9 days that are unaccounted for!

I suspect in 50 to 75 years elite men will be running in 3:20's.

I wonder if they build a track next to the Dead Sea, the most oxygen rich place on Earth, what we could see? The air is also supposed to be free of allergens and the higher pressure is supposed to help respiration. Rupp should like it. All kidding aside, a track there would probably be the fastes on Earth.

Wall Street Journal: “World Ends Today, Market to Close Early.”

The Washington Post: “World to End, Women and Children Most Affected.”

Let's Run: "World Ends Today, Final mile WR 3:39.52"

Horses have been breed both by nature and then by humans to be a large mammal that runs for extended distances. It is conceivable that a genetic engineer could some day produce a human that is in that range. So if a human could run that fast I say roughly 1:30. I doubt humans will worry about getting much faster than that as other things will probably take precedent and the thrill of competition will go away once everyone can be engineered to run very fast.

YEAH. YOU RIGHT BRO!

Assuming there is a KFC on the end of a mile long straight built out of hardwood basketball floor and Usain, Rudisha, Gebrselassie are all on coke and speed. The mile record will stay the same and they would fall to the ground and have seizures after 10 meters.

Horses have been breed both by nature and then by humans to be a large mammal that runs for extended distances. It is conceivable that a genetic engineer could some day produce a human that is in that range. So if a human could run that fast I say roughly 1:30. I doubt humans will worry about getting much faster than that as other things will probably take precedent and the thrill of competition will go away once everyone can be engineered to run very fast.

you're so disgusting. you should be put in jail. Are you really advocating bestiality?

Close guess.

Using a logistic S-Curve Model

Mile World Record in Seconds = 259.279+((220.593-259.279)*e^(.049(Year-1950.703)))/(1+e^.049(Year-1950.703))

So limit is 220.593 or 3:40.593

I also used an Arctangent model.

Mile World Record in Seconds = 213+26.9-(2*26.9/pi)*arctan(.028(Yer-1950.5))

So with this model limit is 213.08 or 3:33.08

More optimistic long term, but amount the same predictions for the next 10 years.

Sincostan wrote:

When humans go extinct for one reason or another, or we abandon the planet earth, what will the final world record in the mile be? let's assume people cant replace their legs with robotic parts and stuff like that. Only natural human progression. My guess is that the final time will come long before humans cease to exist. 3:37

We'll find out later this year, in December...better start training now.

Good, someone actually did the math, can't let the thread die here. I was thinking that it would be double the current 800 meter record or 3:22 (3:23-4). That would necessitate someone who could easily break both records yet be specialized for the mile though, not likely.

It's our past that is to blame for our limits. Our legs are adapted to run from those of our ancestors who didn't really use them for that. Look at an ostrich for comparison, way better design and way better results.

Beyond that is fitness. VO2 max, LT threshold, ect. I don't see this improving too significantly past current leaders unless someone manages to incorporate cross training in a way that boosts these numbers to levels seen outside of running in athletes completely geared toward running. Even modest improvements here would synerize with improved mechanical efficiency though. A runner who can come though 1600 in 3:30 using only the effort per minute as another taking 4:00 also has the advantage of taking less total time and thus can go out more aggressively.

skdk wrote:

3:43, because the world will refuse to "Bring Back the Mile".

There you go.

All the way home wrote:

ijk wrote:

Yeah, except there isn't any more selective pressure to run fast.

Actually, there well could be. All you need is elites breeding with elites. The fact that the rest of humanity is not being eliminated/dying out because they are slow is irrelevant to this.

Yes, except that elites breeding with elites will most likely not produce outlier offspring. Regression to the mean is a bitch.

If you accept the premise that any record can be broken by .01 second, that means with infinite time, all records will approach 0.

trailrunner68 wrote:

If you accept the premise that any record can be broken by .01 second, that means with infinite time, all records will approach 0.

Humans won't exist in perpetuity, this we can be clear on. So the mathematical truth of the above is irrelevant.

humanity's final PR cant be known until that very last moment, when all oppurtune to PR have passed; and without any human remain in observation of said moment, than how could said PR exist? paradoxial, isn't it?