Webb will be fine

johnny langenwanker wrote:

this is ridiculous.

first of all, manzano had ONE bad race last year at worlds. to say he is crap on the international scene is ridiculous. he had ONE bad race!!!

the way i see it manzano is as much a favorite as lagat is right now for the title. don't forget manzano BEAT lagat last year. (you don't need to remind me that lagat went on to win gold in two events at osaka, i know)

i'm not saying he's crap on the international scene. he's a tremendously tough competitor who has shown time and time again that he is as savvy a racer as anyone out there.

*on the other hand* i don't think he has the talent to ever be a world beater. it's hard to quantify "talent" but he doesn't have great underside speed (400/800) and he has never shown any great ability in overdistance races. he seems to me like a 3:31-3:32 guy at best. now, i think that's great, and not a lot of people can say they have that kind of talent. with his ability and his racing skills, he'll win or place at several US championships; being competitive on the world level is another story though, and it is necessarily more exclusive. Lagat and Webb are the only guys in the US who have showed they can reach that level. Lomong might eventually have a shot. i don't think Manzano does. when he qualifies for WCs/Olympics, we should be pleased if he ever makes a final.

that said, i expect Manzano to make the team. i HOPE Webb makes the team, but i'm concerned about his chances. if he does make the team, then i can HOPE that he regains his 1:43/3:46 form by august. if he DOES regain that form, he has a chance to win, and a very good chance to medal. all i want is for the US to win medals, and i think Lagat and Webb are the only ones who can contribute to that. if Lagat were having a year as bad as Webb is, i would be making the same arguments for him.

didn't webb have one bad race too? and you're using this thesis to base your arguments on against webb, then you use it too support Manzano?

stop acting the fool.

johnny langenwanker wrote:

it doesn't matter right now that webb was a 1:43/3:46 guy. he is NOT right now. i don't hate webb, but he's just on that level this year. stop trying to convince yourselves he is. it'd be great if he was. but to be hopelessly stubborn at this stage is just pointless. root for him, sure, but i sympathize with syderwebb in that i too am sick of reading so many threads about how "it will all work out" and webb will dominate. if he does it, it will be an upset, in my book. he should not be considered a top 3 favorite, and only borderline top 5, based on the shape he is in and the shape other americans have shown themselves to be in.

i agree with most of this, but no one, not even the most experienced experts, fully understand the nature of running performance. when el Guerrouj ran like 3:34 for 11th place in 2004, could anyone have predicted that he'd close the olympics with a 1:46 800m in the 1500?

there's two possible outcomes of webb's current condition:

1) he stays "under the weather" or whatever and runs like crap all year.

or

2) he recovers from (purported) overtraining and starts running like he did last year.

there's no way to know which is going to happen. i don't pretend to know, but he IS a 1:43/3:46 guy, he's just not running well. unlike other 1:47/3:55 guys (as he is performing right now), it wouldn't take a miracle for him to compete in the Olympic final... it would just take a return to form.

funkadochas wrote:

didn't webb have one bad race too? and you're using this thesis to base your arguments on against webb, then you use it too support Manzano?

stop acting the fool.

Alan Webb has had significantly more than one bad race.

Manzano's bad race came at World's at the conclusion of a tremendously long racing season that extended from the ncaa indoor champs in march, to another peak for ncaa's and nats in june, to yet another at worlds. All this while he was attempting to prepare for the 07 xc season. That's about as good as excuses come these days. It was a learning experience. This year he can focus completely on worlds, without worrying about fall of 08 or early 09.

Webb's race in Osaka should have been the biggest in his life. All of his training should have been geared specifically for that race. He bombed there...and Athens (at which time he was a pro, encountering none of Manzano's aforementioned difficulties).

I don't think I need to mention the folly of calling someone else a fool while claiming that Mr. Hit or Miss has only had 'one' bad race.

portland wrote:

i agree with most of this, but no one, not even the most experienced experts, fully understand the nature of running performance. when el Guerrouj ran like 3:34 for 11th place in 2004, could anyone have predicted that he'd close the olympics with a 1:46 800m in the 1500?

there's two possible outcomes of webb's current condition:

1) he stays "under the weather" or whatever and runs like crap all year.

or

2) he recovers from (purported) overtraining and starts running like he did last year.

there's no way to know which is going to happen. i don't pretend to know, but he IS a 1:43/3:46 guy, he's just not running well. unlike other 1:47/3:55 guys (as he is performing right now), it wouldn't take a miracle for him to compete in the Olympic final... it would just take a return to form.

I certainly see your point. I think I'm just not convinced that he will be able to return to top-3 form at the trials in a very competitive year. The olympic final, if he makes it, is far enough away that I would give him better chances on getting back to good form.

then we agree completely. i just hope that he DOES get it together by the trials so we have more than just Lagat to rely on for 1500m medal chances.

it's the people saying he DEFINITELY won't get it together by the trials that bother me. since no one can really know either way, we can only assume that they don't WANT him to do well. i don't see why any American wouldn't (although i realize that not everyone on Letsrun is American). they're just as blind and biased as the people saying with certainty that "Webb will be fine."

i don't think he bombed in Osaka. obviously, a higher place wasn't an unrealistic expectation, but he was in contention with 100m to go, despite bad positioning for much of the race.

as for Athens, he had pretty much all of Manzano's difficulties. he was coming off of two straight years of barely breaking 4 for the mile, so he HAD to peak for the trials. by the time he opened his outdoor season with a 3:35, he didn't have time to totally readjust his training to peak 2 months later. by the time the olympics rolled around, he was well past his peak. it was basically the same thing that happened to Manzano in Osaka.

I haven't even read much of this post but one thing is pretty obvious:

SPYDERS WEBB - You are pathetic.

Keep on wasting your energy finding other reasons why you hate Alan. I don't know what pleasure you get out of it but if it really makes your life that much better, then once you realize this, you might want to look into therapy.

Thanks to all who actually support Alan on this message board. He's at a great place (mentally) and will be physically at the trials :)

Julia

He's aiming at Beijing, nothing else. So many people have been jealous of him since he busted Ryun's record.

johnny langenwanker wrote:

I agree that come the time of the trials final, he might in good enough shape to time trial a 3:36. that would convert to a two second improvement over his mile race at pre (tell me if i'm wrong, but he ran 3:55 mile at pre, add 17 secs for 109 meters and you get a 3:53). which is about all you can expect.

Not to keep hashing at this, but I am saying from Saturdays performance that Webb can run 3:36.xx NOW. If you look at his improvement over three weeks last year, I dont think it will be unreasonable to drop that time another 2 seconds. That is good enough to qualify at trials. Im not saying he has to win. Just qualify. maybe Im the unreasonable one, but I think Saturdays performance says more than were giving credit for. If he bombs, i'll look up this thread and eat crow

julia rudd wrote:

I haven't even read much of this post but one thing is pretty obvious:

SPYDERS WEBB - You are pathetic.

Keep on wasting your energy finding other reasons why you hate Alan. I don't know what pleasure you get out of it but if it really makes your life that much better, then once you realize this, you might want to look into therapy.

Thanks to all who actually support Alan on this message board. He's at a great place (mentally) and will be physically at the trials :)

Julia

Julia, nice post. Don't be fooled, though- the small but focused number of letsrun Webb bashers are representative of probably less than 1% of the actual track fans in this country. It's just that the trolls tend to be very 'vocal' on these types of message boards. Really, the negative posts should be laughed at, and nothing more. The talentless and lonely are always the first to criticize.

I think too many people are overestimating the field this year. They like Manzano, lagat, and lopez so they think this is going to be the toughest competition ever. US Trials has shown us one thing....it's always tactical. Last time the US Nationals or Trials 1500 final was fast for one reason.... Webb/Lagat. They were focused on breaking everyone else.

To say that he has no chance and he's washed up is naive. The guy continually shows up for this meet. He may have sporadic times at all other competitions, but this is the meet he always seems to be around for. It will be tactical, and Webb will win in ~3:36. Certainly neither is a stretch of the imagination from current fitness improvement, Webb's history at trials/nats, and the tactical nature of the race.

The rest of these opinions sound like a bunch of speculation of what people have wished against this guy for years. I think he's doing what we've been yelling at him to do for a while....PEAK at the right time. Finally he's focusing on that, and everyone is ready to take a cheap shot that he's not in top form in may.

julia rudd wrote:

I haven't even read much of this post but one thing is pretty obvious:

SPYDERS WEBB - You are pathetic.

Keep on wasting your energy finding other reasons why you hate Alan. I don't know what pleasure you get out of it but if it really makes your life that much better, then once you realize this, you might want to look into therapy.

Thanks to all who actually support Alan on this message board. He's at a great place (mentally) and will be physically at the trials :)

Julia

As his gf, I expect you to be biased and unrealistic about his chances.

But outside of you, his parents and the insane, everyone else should know better.

Oh well, we'll just have to sit tight for a couple of weeks until Webb proves me right. Again.

Let's look best case scenario.

Last year Webb peaked too early. He was very very sharp early and had a devastating kick. Lagat on the other hand was tired / sick / lacked kick early and was deep back into the pack at many races. Maybe that will be Webb this year.

Webb could plain old be training very very hard or maybe not finishing races 100% because he or they don't want to be. Maybe the extra gear IS in fact there and they don't want to use it. Had he had his peak 2007 kick he's have won his latest 800. Sandbag? Maybe...maybe not.

I'm afraid he COULD be in trouble. How can a 3:30 guy that should be head and shoulders above everyone else be getting beating so soundly? Who knows. Let's just hope he can come around or hope he is in face sandbagging through the early races. I still think Lagat may have had sand bad syndrom last season early.

johnny langenwanker wrote:

Manzano's bad race came at World's at the conclusion of a tremendously long racing season that extended from the ncaa indoor champs in march, to another peak for ncaa's and nats in june, to yet another at worlds. All this while he was attempting to prepare for the 07 xc season.

He's done the exact same thing this year, why would we want a guy like him on our Olympic team when he won't even make it out of the first round? I am amazed at how much people hype Manzano on here, most of the races he wins are because of everyone else being in awe of him and just sitting. How soon we forget that Lomong beat him last year and will be much better prepared for the trials considering he didn't have a long indoor season and has raced sparingly (and his races have been great) this outdoor season.

Also, Webb wins USA championships. You should all know that by now. For as much as he struggles sometimes, the last few years he gets it done here in the USA. Webb will be going to Beijing, bank on it.

haha, YO wrote:

He's done the exact same thing this year, why would we want a guy like him on our Olympic team when he won't even make it out of the first round? I am amazed at how much people hype Manzano on here, most of the races he wins are because of everyone else being in awe of him and just sitting. How soon we forget that Lomong beat him last year and will be much better prepared for the trials considering he didn't have a long indoor season and has raced sparingly (and his races have been great) this outdoor season.

Also, Webb wins USA championships. You should all know that by now. For as much as he struggles sometimes, the last few years he gets it done here in the USA. Webb will be going to Beijing, bank on it.

Hmm. Well I couldn't disagree with you any more. I just see it differently. Have you ever watched Leonel Manzano race? He has completely dominated the college ranks, which is not an easy thing to do. And people do NOT just sit on him. He beat Garret Heath and Russell Brown every race this year, and they were finalists at USA outdoors last year. Not to mention the Wisconsin trio couldn't touch him. I've seen Manzano in person at Penn the last few years, it has nothing to do with people 'being afraid.' Winning a tight anchor leg at Penn can be harder than winning a national championship. Two years ago Curtis had a huge lead, Manzano and some others closed it, and he blew them away at the end. This year him and Brown went with 250 to go, and I thought Brown had him, he ran a hell of a race, but Manzano pulled away pretty smoothly for the win. It's ridiculous to say he wins because people are afraid of him. Also, Lomong went on to get 5th at the trials after beating Manzano, while Manzano got 2nd in a deeper 1500 field. As far as this year is concerned, he's run more races than the other top guys, but I'd be shocked if the focus of his season wasn't the trials. Also he's not worried about xc in the fall this year like he was last year so I don't see him encountering the same problems. But I think we might just have to agree to disagree on this one.

Also, not directing this at anyone, but just in general, it's a shame that the guilt trippers think you can't have a decent argument about the results of the trials without someone coming up with the ridiculous hypothesis that "all you webb bashers are just jealous." When someone makes a serious prediction that a team is going to lose the World Series, it's not because they're jealous or bitter (generally). Imagine what SportsCenter would be like if you could never predict upsets for fear of exposing yourself as a bitter, jealous angry person.

johnny langenwanker wrote:

Winning a tight anchor leg at Penn can be harder than winning a national championship.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, what have you been smoking? I guess Manzano is the new golden boy of letsrun, he can do no wrong (interesting for a guy who hasn't broken 3:40 this year). Lomong will dominate him come trials time and as I said before that will be good because we need pros on our team, guys who will make it to the final not just get sent home after one round because they had a long season. Manzano's time will come in the next few years, he is a huge talent.

Also, johnny, there is a huge difference between those people picking that Webb will do poorly based on facts who present their arguments in a reasonable way and the huge loser that is Spyders Webb.

haha, YO wrote:

Also, johnny, there is a huge difference between those people picking that Webb will do poorly based on facts who present their arguments in a reasonable way and the huge loser that is Spyders Webb.

I predicted he'd suck at every race he's run this year. Was I right? Oh yeah, I was. Easily right.

Who's the loser? You Webb crotch lickers who keep making the same worn out excuses every time he gets toasted.

A sure fire Olympic team member, as you say, can't even win an 800 against b rated runners, but he's right on track to be a guaranteed member of the Olmpic team. Talk about presenting an argument in a reasonable way. Son, you don't even know what reasonable means.

However, keep praising your boy Webb. He'll have a good race some time. Eventually. His next race. I mean the next one. I mean, he was overtrained, so I meant his next one. I meant, he's not peaking for that one, so it will be the next one. Oops, I wasn't talking about that one, but he's right on track to drop the field at his next one!!!

You go boy!

Dude it's not about anybody being the Golden Boy.

This thread is about the fact that in an olympic year, Alan Webb is not prepared for the trials for whatever reason(more than likely an unknown problem) and a logical person would not expect him to make the olympic team. It's obvious that he's not sharp right now, and he doesn't look as fit as in years past either. I think the rounds are going to be tougher on him than others because he's only had a couple of races.

He could defy the odds, but that's exactly what he's got to do at this point, defy the odds. With all that said, I'm going to be jumping up and down rooting for Webb in the final. At his best he is a legitimate medal contender at the games, and his aggressive style is fun to watch.

Spyders Webb wrote:

I predicted he'd suck at every race he's run this year. Was I right? Oh yeah, I was. Easily right.

I'm curious as to why you predicted him to suck at the USA 8k championships, his season last year and his ability to tear up US competition should have indicated he would run very well at that race. Doesn't sound very reasonable to pick against him.

Are you an American? Why this hatred would exist towards on of the best we have seems very strange.