Kevin:
You're all wet! I'm telling ya; you're all wet! ;o) What does that mean anyways? I hope it's not offensive??? You know I'm just joking! Are you guys still thinking about Sell running Ohme? Do you want me to help you out with anything with it?
Fukushi has been "Queen of Track" in Japan. She has been Olympics and WC several times and I believe highest she finished is something like 8th??? Now she ran her first half last year and ran 1:07 reportedly with "no special training" for it. That was Japanese and Asian record. She said something like "Running twice as long as that!? Unthinkable!" or "If I have 2 hours to run, I'd go watch a movie!" although her coach as insinuated her potential as a marathon runner...
Now as a marathon runner (and to be a success), I believe it would be advantageous to have a certain temperament. Lorraine Moller certainly had it; she had patience and confidence to stay back and let the crazy speedster do whatever they do. She won Boston that way; she won bronze medal that way. She won several of Osaka that way. On the other hand, Ann Audain probably lacked that. I think Audain had great potential to be a great marathon runner (her road race record shows) but she didn't. Someone like Baldini has "it". 2 years before Athens, I had a chance to meet him at NY. I told him that he's my pick at NY (he finished 6th) and I thought he was a huge favorite (one of) at Athens. I liked his style as a marathon runner. Fukushi doesn't seem to have that. Whether she discipline that or not is yet to be tested...
Anyways, so she went on and ran that "comical" 10k at Osaka, finished 10th. Reportedly, she got sick of finishing 8~10ish on track; decided to have a marathon a go. So, yes, I think she should have plenty of time to prepare for it okay. What I heard actually was that they were secretly hoping that she could make the Olympic team--that this was no joke for them; otherwise, she would most likely make the Japanese team for 10 and finish somewhere around 10th in Beijing again.
Of course, if I her "team", I would have set up at least a 2-year plan to move slowly up to the marathon. I think Noguchi's "team" had that plan and their strategy was to make her be a queen of half marathon first. If you look at her career, you'll see her doing lots of half marathons 2 years prior to her first marathon (Nagoya 2 years before Athens and a year before Paris WC)). I don't know how many Olympics/WC Fukushi has run but she's been going around the circle; she takes the lead; fades back and finish somewhere around 8~10th. It's like banging her head against the wall; her "team" never seems to have learnt anything! Let's face it; if you can't sprint; you can't finish well in the international 10k race on track. So IF YOU WANT TO DO WELL internatinally, you need to move up--marathon. And if you want to prepare for the marathon, you'll need to have a long term plan and work your way up in 2 or 3 years time. Apparently Deena had a period when she wasn't quite sure if she wanted to run 10 or marathon at Athens. If she decided to run 10, there's NO way in hell she could have won a medal in the mad dash sprint in the last lap! In the marathon, if there are 10 favorites, 8 of them would make mistakes (like Fukushi did). If you are the one who didn't make any mistake, then there's a chance to win a medal! That's EXACTLY what Deena did. Same with Lorraine in 1992. And as you should know, Kevin, that's what Brian Sell did at the Trial; and also what The Team Hanson did for the last 5, 6, 7 years; wasn't it? A long term planning.