I think this is quite petty. He said flat out that he had a sore throat and a slight fever for a few days. Making up a fake illness would be completely unprofessional and out of character, and would kill his credibility for good.
You mean Kerr? I would really like seeing your maths here. Kerr's PB on the mile is 3:45.34, Ingebrigtsen is 3:43.73, 1.6 seconds better, even though his mile PB isn't particularly strong. And he has improved by a lot since then.
Even Nuguse is 3:43.97. Could you help me convert those mile times into equivalent 1500m? If Kerr has closed the gap, then Nuguse is more than a second ahead of JI, by that logic.
When I said he has closed if I meant relative to previous years. It is smaller now. Jakob has improved, but Kerr has improved even more relatively.
In absolute terms, maybe.
Of course, as you approach the world record and beyond, each marginal gain becomes harder and harder to achieve
I don't think anyone else will lead thru 400 m fast enough for JI and I think JI wants each lap below 56 so by default he must lead. JK, CH, YN will try to stick with him but I am not sure any of them can if 1200 is 2:46 ish. For a 2000m or longer race JI would be clear favorite, no? So I see JI leading by 300 m mark and running 55s.
That's what I think does Jakob in. Despite knowing it's gotta be as fast as possible, he will still hesitate slightly to see if anyone else is willing to front run. He should know better but it's psychologically almost impossible to go out there with a mentality that you are going to go for a WR wire to wire... because that's essentially the attitude he needs to have here.
Yeah 2k is a slightly different story but Kerr has gotten so strong. Really hard to say.
When I said he has closed if I meant relative to previous years. It is smaller now. Jakob has improved, but Kerr has improved even more relatively.
In absolute terms, maybe.
Of course, as you approach the world record and beyond, each marginal gain becomes harder and harder to achieve
Right but PB wise they are closer than ever before so I can't buy it that Jakob has the edge in a tactical final purely based on how fast they have run. No lights no pacers... just Jakob taking the wind and spending slightly more energy.
When I said he has closed if I meant relative to previous years.
When I hear "closing the gap", I understand it to mean that the gap is closed, i.e. there is no more gap. But you mean the gap has been reduced, ok. But this is based on his mile time only? He has not improved his 1500m for some years, and his old mile record could hardly be described as a "serious" time (3:48.87), so the improvement is quite inflated, I suspect.
So Kerr was previously 2 seconds slower than JI on the 1500. Now he is 1.6s slower than JI on his mile PB from last year, but in the meantime, JI improved his 1500 by 0.4s. Seems to me that roughly 2 seconds difference on the 1500m is a decent approximation.
Now, he may have made some 'hidden' improvements (nothing sinister implied) that he hasn't showed. But so far it seems like the predictions about Kerr's level are based on some very optimistic extrapolation.
An Olympic final is of course very different, but my prediction is that if JI front runs a low 3:28, no one will be able to follow him. There just isn't anyone with that capacity. Of course, he could make bad decisions, he's not 'invincible', but an average race from him should put some distance between him and the rest.
When I said he has closed if I meant relative to previous years.
When I hear "closing the gap", I understand it to mean that the gap is closed, i.e. there is no more gap. But you mean the gap has been reduced, ok. But this is based on his mile time only? He has not improved his 1500m for some years, and his old mile record could hardly be described as a "serious" time (3:48.87), so the improvement is quite inflated, I suspect.
So Kerr was previously 2 seconds slower than JI on the 1500. Now he is 1.6s slower than JI on his mile PB from last year, but in the meantime, JI improved his 1500 by 0.4s. Seems to me that roughly 2 seconds difference on the 1500m is a decent approximation.
Now, he may have made some 'hidden' improvements (nothing sinister implied) that he hasn't showed. But so far it seems like the predictions about Kerr's level are based on some very optimistic extrapolation.
An Olympic final is of course very different, but my prediction is that if JI front runs a low 3:28, no one will be able to follow him. There just isn't anyone with that capacity. Of course, he could make bad decisions, he's not 'invincible', but an average race from him should put some distance between him and the rest.
Ok so our prediction difference boils down to whether Kerr is capable of 3:28 low or better. I'm betting he definitely is.
Btw I do think Jakob will front run a 3:28 low to mid, but I think in the way he does it will allow for Kerr to snipe him again. He's not going to run very even early on. He's going to play is slightly safe in the first 200-300 to see if anyone else is willing to do the work then he'll jump to the front.. but I think that's what will flatten his potential for a strong enough kick in the end. He'll need to solo an even paced fast 3:28 low or better to be able to hold off Kerr.
I think potato Tim is the only wild card here in terms of tactics. He's been around the block but I haven't seen him race so sharply this season. He might think he could pull another Tokyo to secure a medal and go hard from the gun. But ai definitely don't see him soloing a 3:28. I think in that case if Jakob can run on his shoulder he might have enough strenght to hold off a late charge from Kerr. But I'm seeing an extremely confident and focused Kerr who is going to maintain a tight gap to the leader no matter what.
Ok so our prediction difference boils down to whether Kerr is capable of 3:28 low or better.
Not quite, though. I'm saying I think low 3:28 will be enough, but I also think JI is capable of mid 3:27 without much help. If he is pushed hard (but by whom?), he could go 3:27 low.
Y'all sleeping on Kerr's capabilities, I think he's in sub 3:27 shape and could've even dipped under 3:27 at the Monaco DL
... based on what, exactly?
He ran faster than Jakob at pre, Jakob then ran 3:28 at Oslo, then went 3:26 point at Monaco. Obviously he was coming back from injury but the mile was Kerr's first and only 1500/mile of the season and we'd have seen his times drop if he'd raced more leading up to the Olympics. Jakob maybe could beat him in a rabbited race but not by much. Plus Danny Mackey said Kerr could've gone under 3:27 at Monaco
The speculations surrounding Kerr's capabilities all seem to revolve around wild extrapolation, and is even based on improvements made by other runners. After the mile run at Pre, the Ingebrigtsen team was ecstatic that he was doing so well. He was clearly in an early phase of his comeback. You cannot transplant JI's improvement since then over on Kerr.
As I said in a edit above (I probably shouldn't edit posts the middle of an exchange): Thinking that a 26 year-old runner who's been stagnant at 3:29 for several years, will suddenly improve by almost 2.5 seconds, is pretty wild.
This post was edited 31 seconds after it was posted.
Ok so our prediction difference boils down to whether Kerr is capable of 3:28 low or better.
Not quite, though. I'm saying I think low 3:28 will be enough, but I also think JI is capable of mid 3:27 without much help. If he is pushed hard (but by whom?), he could go 3:27 low.
So also boils down to whether he will be pushed to 3:27. I don't think anyone in their right mind is going to do that as it makes no sense for them knowing Jakob will do the work regardless.
So IMO, Kerr is capable of sub 3:28 + Jakob will have to do the work by himself = Kerr W
He ran faster than Jakob at pre, Jakob then ran 3:28 at Oslo, then went 3:26 point at Monaco. Obviously he was coming back from injury but the mile was Kerr's first and only 1500/mile of the season and we'd have seen his times drop if he'd raced more leading up to the Olympics. Jakob maybe could beat him in a rabbited race but not by much. Plus Danny Mackey said Kerr could've gone under 3:27 at Monaco
You can't use the logic that "A beats B twice in slower races, therefore A can run the same times as B in faster races."
Albert Korir beat Kiochoge in Boston, and then Kipchoge ran 2:02 at Berlin. Is Korir now a 2:02 marathoner?
I know it's different scenarios and I'm using an extreme comparison, but this is pretty much the logic you're using.
And what a surprise, Kerr's coach says he "could've gone" the same time as his rival. What else was he supposed to say?
The speculations surrounding Kerr's capabilities all seem to revolve around wild extrapolation, and is even based on improvements made by other runners. After the mile run at Pre, the Ingebrigtsen n0team was ecstatic that he was doing so well. He was clearly in an early phase of his comeback. You cannot transplant JI's improvement since then over on Kerr.
As I said in a edit above (I probably shouldn't edit posts the middle of an exchange): Thinking that a 26 year-old runner who's been stagnant at 3:29 for several years, will suddenly improve by almost 2.5 seconds, is pretty wild.
Sure there is no hard evidence. I highly doubt though that Kerr is not faster now given his team has perfected the art of timing his season best performances in the big ones. I'll hang my hat on that. But I don't think that's even what gives Kerr the edge. It's his speed and how the race will play into his hands more than Jakob's.
Y'all sleeping on Kerr's capabilities, I think he's in sub 3:27 shape and could've even dipped under 3:27 at the Monaco DL
Based on what? He's never done anything even remotely approaching that realm. My guess is he can do mid to high 3:28 in a nicely paced race.
Thinking that a 26 year-old runner who's been stagnant at 3:29 for several years, will suddenly improve by almost 2.5 seconds, is pretty wild.
Why has he gone from finishing outside the top 3 regularly to dominating then? You'd have never saw the old Kerr winning at pre like he did or doing what he did indoors. He looks like a different runner