From #1 (Grant Fisher) to #33 Whittni Morgan - Here as the US Mid-D and Distance Runners' Medal Odds

No, not 6 minutes!! It's 8 minute abs!!

Having Sisson at 1% and attributing it to her “not liking hills” is a little reductive. She has only raced 1 hilly marathon and that was the trials in 2020 where she dropped out, but otherwise has just been chasing fast times. She has even said in interviews herself she has had success at hilly courses before, 25K Champs etc. She has spoken at length about how she is doing a lot of course-specific strength conditioning so she can handle the steep decline of this course and has seen great improvements on her hilly tempos.

Rojo. I am surprised that you are telling us your pronouns here. Unless you were hacked by one of your rogue mods?

Well, it was an interesting way for a distance fan to while away the time waiting for Olympic track to begin.

However, as a legitimate attempt at setting medal odds for all US distance runners, it also was a meaningless pursuit because (a) heat sheets have yet to be published, (b) we don't yet know who the doublers/triplers/quadruplers will be, and (c) this exercise set probabilities for athletes winning medals who may not even make the finals in their events.

One lone exception: men's 10,000 because it's on t&f's first day and there are no heats, thus we already know who the 27 finalists are. Thus, guessing each runner's chances of winning medals does seem like a reasonable alternative to taking a nap.

Note: because of Grant's record against his main 10,000 competition -- namely Kejelcha, Barega, Aregawi, Cheptegai, and Kiplimo -- as well as his excellent championship racing record in heat and humidity, seems like Grant's chances of winning a medal are 50% (6 guys racing for 3 medals) rather than 10%.

Everyone -- and I mean everyone -- will change their minds and their picks following semifinals of each event. At that point, all questions regarding health, fitness, racing acumen, and who's looking good, who isn't, will have been answered.

Then, revisit this arithmetic homework.

Either Rojo is a genius and this logic flies way over my head or this is a bunch of nonsense. My gut tells me its the latter.

I don’t see Hocker’s medal chances as being twice as good as Yared’s. Didn’t make it much past that.

Nuguse higher fisher lower.

Nia Akins as our 2nd best chance for a medal?? I wish.

Kenneth Rooks is going to show up big and get 3rd

Reading Rojo’s take on Fisher’s chances in the 10K, I had an issue with this part:

“I don’t like Fisher’s odds for a medal in the 10k at all. He’s not as good as Yomif Kejelcha, Jacob Kiplimo, Selemon Barega,or Joshua Cheptegei. If they run their best, Fisher isn’t beating them. Yes, Fisher leads Kejelcha 5-3 lifetime in all races but Kejelcha has won the last three and they haven’t been particularly close (2023 Florence, 2023 Zurich, and 2023 Pre).”

I don’t think two non-championship 5K races and a non-championship 3K are necessarily indicative of how they stack up in a championship 10K. I think it’s more helpful to look at their championship head to head record. Fisher has the advantage there, 2-0. Fisher beat Kejelcha in the last Olympic 10K, and he beat him in the 2022 world championship 5K. It’s therefore conceivable that Fisher can beat him again.

Your Monaco point is kinda off on the Jakob part, I think. I didn’t really see Yareds move past Cheruiyot as realistically aspirational to beat Jakob - more I think he misjudged and thought he had more left than he did and was going to gap Tim. Everyone was in striking distance until at 1,100 when Jakob cranked it up. Yared worked hard to barely get by Tim and in fact Tim almost ran into the back of him because he anticipated Yared would either lift the pace more or not cut in.

Either way agree with your overall sentiment, but on the converse side, who is more likely to get a good ride and pick off guys the last 300? Probably Hocker a la Nordas last year. Yared needs to win bronze by probably getting clear separation and finishing strong enough a la Pre. Even though he’s not a poor finisher by any means that’s where the rest of the guys scare me (Komen, Tim, Hocker, Laros, Nordas ~ though him not so much). He kinda reminds me of being in the same spot Iguider used to occupy, but he got two bronzes so maybe I should be more optimistic of the really strong, consistent guy.

Dakota Lindwurm is going to surprise you all🙃

Akins 25% vs. Whittaker 0%??? Come on. They aren't that different in ability and medal potential. With the remaining comp, two medals are not even in play, so I give neither more than a 10% shot. And Nuguse, a 3:43 miler, gets half the chance of Hocker? That doesn't make sense.