He absolutely is a sleeper - isn't the definition of a "sleeper" in this context someone that you don't believe is a true threat under the premise of how you believe the race will play out (exactly what Hocker is right now) but that could come from nowhere if the race plays out wildly different? Of course that is Cole Hocker.
I know replies to this are going to be "but Jakob will never let it happen like this" - but then that's not the narrative of the question/thread - we have to imagine a crazy scenario where it's not Jakob going 56,56,55.5 - does Jakob somehow get badly boxed, does he freak out, does he fall - who knows, but imagine if the race goes old school 1.58 at 800m and 2.54 at 1200m - then Hocker is your perfect sleeper. He's not the fastest guy over 800m or the strongest over 5000m, but I just feel like he has an power and leg speed edge over the field in the event it comes down to a final 300m sprint. And then it's a total crapshoot/toss-up of who has positioned themselves well and there is no reason why it couldn't be him. He the "bowling ball" of the field - strong kid, solidly built - I have no doubt there is a plausible (doesn't have to be likely) race scenario where he would be the guy best suited for it - that makes him a sleeper pick to win.
Hocker is the “bowling ball” of the field? Now you’re just making stuff up. Hocker is a real long shot, someone who would not win more than 5 times if the race were held 100 times.
It's a figure of speech you muppetweasel. Yeah it's made up. And?
Again, your own "making stuff up" criteria of not more than 5 wins in 100 races is once again in line with the concept of being a "sleeper".
Honestly, I'm still astounded guys like you post - I guess I just even grasp the idea of writing things like this, I would be genuinely embarassed.
With 150m to go and no gap between runners, who medals the Olympic final?
Hocker is definitely in this conversation. He has made 3 global finals (6th, 7th, 2nd). He has a 3:30.6 PR (OT win and record) plus 1:45, 8:06 2mi, 13:58 5k, all of those run THIS YEAR. He is likely to be in this final and his kick is on par with the world's best.
Hocker is the “bowling ball” of the field? Now you’re just making stuff up. Hocker is a real long shot, someone who would not win more than 5 times if the race were held 100 times.
It's a figure of speech you muppetweasel. Yeah it's made up. And?
Again, your own "making stuff up" criteria of not more than 5 wins in 100 races is once again in line with the concept of being a "sleeper".
Honestly, I'm still astounded guys like you post - I guess I just even grasp the idea of writing things like this, I would be genuinely embarassed.
Have you ever been told you need anger management counseling? You should be embarrassed for not being able to spell the word.
I know Hocker's best is a full 4 seconds behind Jakob. But he looked so strong at the Trials. Could he be a sleeper here if the race does not end up being run at World Record pace?
Jakob and Josh are both very smart racers with PR's significantly faster than anyone else likely to be in the final; if the pace DID dawdle, then perhaps someone like Hocker or Kessler might have a small chance. But the fact is, both J and J know if it's a fast pace they are only racing each other; if the pace is slow they're letting other people into the mix so tactically it's a no-brainer. One of them might be willing to gamble that, but not both of them. Just my .02 of course.
I know Hocker's best is a full 4 seconds behind Jakob. But he looked so strong at the Trials. Could he be a sleeper here if the race does not end up being run at World Record pace?
I think he could win if its a very slow race,with a sit and kick at the end.Oh and assuming he's not boxed in . I doubt jakob will want a slow race though. Matthew centrowitz won the rio olympics in 3.50, but i dont see jakob or josh kerr doing that,in a championship race. Jakob will want to lead from gun to tape,and he will run at well under sub 3.30 pace.
I know Hocker's best is a full 4 seconds behind Jakob. But he looked so strong at the Trials. Could he be a sleeper here if the race does not end up being run at World Record pace?
I know Hocker's best is a full 4 seconds behind Jakob. But he looked so strong at the Trials. Could he be a sleeper here if the race does not end up being run at World Record pace?
He absolutely is a sleeper - isn't the definition of a "sleeper" in this context someone that you don't believe is a true threat under the premise of how you believe the race will play out (exactly what Hocker is right now) but that could come from nowhere if the race plays out wildly different? Of course that is Cole Hocker.
I know replies to this are going to be "but Jakob will never let it happen like this" - but then that's not the narrative of the question/thread - we have to imagine a crazy scenario where it's not Jakob going 56,56,55.5 - does Jakob somehow get badly boxed, does he freak out, does he fall - who knows, but imagine if the race goes old school 1.58 at 800m and 2.54 at 1200m - then Hocker is your perfect sleeper. He's not the fastest guy over 800m or the strongest over 5000m, but I just feel like he has an power and leg speed edge over the field in the event it comes down to a final 300m sprint. And then it's a total crapshoot/toss-up of who has positioned themselves well and there is no reason why it couldn't be him. He the "bowling ball" of the field - strong kid, solidly built - I have no doubt there is a plausible (doesn't have to be likely) race scenario where he would be the guy best suited for it - that makes him a sleeper pick to win.
Great post! Questions like "Is ___ a sleeper" are often unproductive since you get some posters saying "he's not a sleeper; we're well aware of him" or alternatively "he's not a sleeper; he has no chance to win". Often, you get both.
Your post cut through all that beautifully.
I would even go a bit farther and give Hocker the following rough probabilities of gold, based on winning time:
3:28: 5% 3:31: 10% 3:35: 20%
5% is still pretty low; it's a 1/20 chance, and there will be fewer than that many runners in the final. But is it so crazy to imagine Hocker as 2022 Wightman?
Given these guesses, I would consider Hocker a sleeper pick in a fast race, and an outside favorite in a slow one.
He absolutely is a sleeper - isn't the definition of a "sleeper" in this context someone that you don't believe is a true threat under the premise of how you believe the race will play out (exactly what Hocker is right now) but that could come from nowhere if the race plays out wildly different? Of course that is Cole Hocker.
I know replies to this are going to be "but Jakob will never let it happen like this" - but then that's not the narrative of the question/thread - we have to imagine a crazy scenario where it's not Jakob going 56,56,55.5 - does Jakob somehow get badly boxed, does he freak out, does he fall - who knows, but imagine if the race goes old school 1.58 at 800m and 2.54 at 1200m - then Hocker is your perfect sleeper. He's not the fastest guy over 800m or the strongest over 5000m, but I just feel like he has an power and leg speed edge over the field in the event it comes down to a final 300m sprint. And then it's a total crapshoot/toss-up of who has positioned themselves well and there is no reason why it couldn't be him. He the "bowling ball" of the field - strong kid, solidly built - I have no doubt there is a plausible (doesn't have to be likely) race scenario where he would be the guy best suited for it - that makes him a sleeper pick to win.
Great post! Questions like "Is ___ a sleeper" are often unproductive since you get some posters saying "he's not a sleeper; we're well aware of him" or alternatively "he's not a sleeper; he has no chance to win". Often, you get both.
Your post cut through all that beautifully.
I would even go a bit farther and give Hocker the following rough probabilities of gold, based on winning time:
3:28: 5% 3:31: 10% 3:35: 20%
5% is still pretty low; it's a 1/20 chance, and there will be fewer than that many runners in the final. But is it so crazy to imagine Hocker as 2022 Wightman?
Given these guesses, I would consider Hocker a sleeper pick in a fast race, and an outside favorite in a slow one.
I think 5% is too high at 3:28, should be 2%. At 3:31 however I think it’s gotta be 30% I don’t see Kerr being or Jingy’s kick being much better (if at all than Hocker’s), they will be in better positions if assume, similar odds between the 3.
3:35 the only person beating him is Beamish or an 800 runner like Laros, put him at 40% because of how chaotic it would be (favored over Kerr and Jingy in that race) which could lead to him being boxed or other wild stuff happening.
Great post! Questions like "Is ___ a sleeper" are often unproductive since you get some posters saying "he's not a sleeper; we're well aware of him" or alternatively "he's not a sleeper; he has no chance to win". Often, you get both.
Your post cut through all that beautifully.
I would even go a bit farther and give Hocker the following rough probabilities of gold, based on winning time:
3:28: 5% 3:31: 10% 3:35: 20%
5% is still pretty low; it's a 1/20 chance, and there will be fewer than that many runners in the final. But is it so crazy to imagine Hocker as 2022 Wightman?
Given these guesses, I would consider Hocker a sleeper pick in a fast race, and an outside favorite in a slow one.
I think 5% is too high at 3:28, should be 2%. At 3:31 however I think it’s gotta be 30% I don’t see Kerr being or Jingy’s kick being much better (if at all than Hocker’s), they will be in better positions if assume, similar odds between the 3.
3:35 the only person beating him is Beamish or an 800 runner like Laros, put him at 40% because of how chaotic it would be (favored over Kerr and Jingy in that race) which could lead to him being boxed or other wild stuff happening.
Jakob closed the Budapest semi (a 3:34 race) in 51, running in lane 2 and waving to crowd. I doubt Hocker can come close to it at that pace.