800m and up not a single medal going to a US runner. You can take this prediction to the bank.
Hard to argue.
Bronze medal chances: Fisher (5/10K), Akins (800), ESP/Hiltz (1500), Hoppel (800), Hocker/Nuguse (1500), Constien (ST). And I wouldn’t put any of those over 40% likely (men’s or women’s 1500 best odds).
Anything else feels like somewhat of a long shot (<5%) chance.
even if its only 20% for each of those its still a huge favorite
You have to be pretty bad at math to make this prediction. We have so many runners with a 10-15% chance of medaling that there has to be a 90+% chance of at least one athlete medaling. This is the best and deepest distance squad we have ever sent to the Olympics.
Logically I agree with your assessment. And I know gut feelings are ridiculous, but I'm still feeling it none the less. My less than logical assessment;
800: Hoppel/Kessler to final once there, who knows? Have you ever seen the Aussie speed skater gold medalist's race?
1500: Nuguse/Kessler to final. As above.
5000: Fisher probably final but maybe hasn't got the raw speed required to medal.
10000: Fisher/Young to surprise
marathon: At least 1 USA runner in the top 10. Many runners with faster PB's will bonk.
How much do you want to bet? I was thinking $2,000.
Cheapskate only $2k, add a zero, USA won’t medal in 800m and above for men and women. There is an unrealistic view the US athletes are the best where they are really also ran and DFL.