Of course they’re not going to win. I have more faith in Bekele’s ability to race, and run the paces necessary to stay competitive for a podium spot.
Kipchoge is a 2:03-2:04 marathoner on a flat course at this age, but he won’t accept it. He hammers the first half of every marathon he runs, trying to set a world record or ‘break 2’, only to positive split. He bombed Boston (a bad sign if you take into account the Paris course and the location of the hills in it). He won Berlin (by the skin of his teeth), then bombed Tokyo again with another 6 min positive split.
He’ll go to the front and try to run a time trial in Paris. That might break a few runners who’ll go with him and DNF, opening an opportunity for Bekele.