I don’t understand why people aren’t mentioning that Jakob was sick last year. In his full fitness (3:27 before worlds and Eugene after when Kerr blatantly ducked) he would have won Worlds. He was off. He also was off for the 5k and still won because he’s 5 seconds better than everyone in that right now.
This year will be interesting, but only because Kerr is a level up from last year. 2023 Worlds Kerr against a healthy Jakob loses by probably a full second, no matter if there are rabbits.
I’m what you guys would say is a Kerr fan boy (being Scottish and all). I think ingy has definitely inserted himself as favorite after this run - but I’d say it’s like 60/40 in his favor. Given time that has passed since pre I would say Kerr is probably in 3.27/28 shape - so I still think Jakob will need someone to take it out in 1.52/3 for him to have a chance. I also think if it’s 1.55/56 more than the 2 of them will have a shot at the win. I could see hocker going 1.56 and then closing in 42, 52/3 for a 3.30/31 ‘tactical’ race. I think Kerr and Jakob could do that as well but positioning and timing of moves will be key. Hence I actually hope it is 1.52 or so at the half as I think that means Kerr is silver at worse. Last prediction…. A genuine medal threat … will not qualify for the final.
I’m what you guys would say is a Kerr fan boy (being Scottish and all). I think ingy has definitely inserted himself as favorite after this run - but I’d say it’s like 60/40 in his favor. Given time that has passed since pre I would say Kerr is probably in 3.27/28 shape - so I still think Jakob will need someone to take it out in 1.52/3 for him to have a chance. I also think if it’s 1.55/56 more than the 2 of them will have a shot at the win. I could see hocker going 1.56 and then closing in 42, 52/3 for a 3.30/31 ‘tactical’ race. I think Kerr and Jakob could do that as well but positioning and timing of moves will be key. Hence I actually hope it is 1.52 or so at the half as I think that means Kerr is silver at worse. Last prediction…. A genuine medal threat … will not qualify for the final.
Ingy is favorite in any single race, where he runs, after Tokyo.
It was 3:27 vs 29 last year too, but it didn't matter. Just like Gebrhiwet 12:36 and Aregawi's 12:40, they're just meaningless numbers. Controlled time trials are not championship races full of twists.
Numbers matters, but so does context. F.ex: Kerr is not a 3.29 guy -he is way better. And everything can happen in the Olympics -front running most of the race can be a huge advantage or a fatal disadvantage. And being behind in the field can make you conserve energy or spend it on fighting and wide bends, or even make you trip and fall. There’s no conclusion here before the race is done…!
the mistake people here are making is that they think 3:29 represents the best Kerr can do, when in reality he can at least run high-3:27 in Monaco's conditions. Anyone who closes a low 3:29 in 52 secs ought to be able to run much faster and apparently he's leveled up this year. There maximum abilities are a lot closer than people may think.
If Jakob still opts for that frontrunning style or per his own words, being the pacemaker himself in Paris, that would give Kerr the edge and I wouldn't be surprised to see a re-run of Budapest.
I fully agree in your first paragraph, and the second isn’t that bad either. But I think you rely too much on the disadvantage of front running compared to the disadvantages of being in the field. -Very hard to know the sum here -depends a lot on coincidence and luck. In my opinion Kerr had no advantage in 2023 WC of his struggles in the field / wide bends. He was just better than Jakob that day (for reasons I don’t care to repeat on and on…).
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Kerr is still the favorite. Because he’s a RACER, not a time trailer.
Sorry, Kerr is not a Racer (he didn’t race that well in the 2023 WC -his own words in interviews). But saying that, he is OK I guess (in a field) -just like Jakob…
I don’t understand why people aren’t mentioning that Jakob was sick last year. In his full fitness (3:27 before worlds and Eugene after when Kerr blatantly ducked) he would have won Worlds. He was off. He also was off for the 5k and still won because he’s 5 seconds better than everyone in that right now.
This year will be interesting, but only because Kerr is a level up from last year. 2023 Worlds Kerr against a healthy Jakob loses by probably a full second, no matter if there are rabbits.
Will he not be sick this year? His father was great about protecting him from illness by not overtraining and generally being concerned with catching colds.
I’m what you guys would say is a Kerr fan boy (being Scottish and all). I think ingy has definitely inserted himself as favorite after this run - but I’d say it’s like 60/40 in his favor. Given time that has passed since pre I would say Kerr is probably in 3.27/28 shape - so I still think Jakob will need someone to take it out in 1.52/3 for him to have a chance. I also think if it’s 1.55/56 more than the 2 of them will have a shot at the win. I could see hocker going 1.56 and then closing in 42, 52/3 for a 3.30/31 ‘tactical’ race. I think Kerr and Jakob could do that as well but positioning and timing of moves will be key. Hence I actually hope it is 1.52 or so at the half as I think that means Kerr is silver at worse. Last prediction…. A genuine medal threat … will not qualify for the final.
Ingy is favorite in any single race, where he runs, after Tokyo.
Would he have closed the indoor 3k in 25 seconds? Was he the favorite in 2022 and 2023 1500m?
He is not a lock, but he has a much better record than any 1500m runner competing in this era including Kerr
True, but there are quite a few competitors in the Tour de France in the last few days who have come down with illness. So, how should Jakob and Josh protect themselves?
I'm sorry but anything other than a WR doesn't really mean anything as far as the race between Kerr and Jakob, unless people really think Jakob still isn't peaked and will get a second or 2 fitter in two weeks. Jakob was in just as good of shape last year, he was half a second off the mile WR at the Diamond league final, and that wasn't a big enough fitness gap to Kerr to front run the entire race and win.
If Jakob wins the Olympic 1500 he's running 3:24 at the DL final. That's the kind of fitness he needs for his strategy to work.
I don’t understand why people aren’t mentioning that Jakob was sick last year. In his full fitness (3:27 before worlds and Eugene after when Kerr blatantly ducked) he would have won Worlds. He was off. He also was off for the 5k and still won because he’s 5 seconds better than everyone in that right now.
This year will be interesting, but only because Kerr is a level up from last year. 2023 Worlds Kerr against a healthy Jakob loses by probably a full second, no matter if there are rabbits.
I don’t understand why people aren’t mentioning that Jakob was sick last year. In his full fitness (3:27 before worlds and Eugene after when Kerr blatantly ducked) he would have won Worlds. He was off. He also was off for the 5k and still won because he’s 5 seconds better than everyone in that right now.
This year will be interesting, but only because Kerr is a level up from last year. 2023 Worlds Kerr against a healthy Jakob loses by probably a full second, no matter if there are rabbits.
Well, a lot of people don’t buy the sickness excuse, given Jakob had been showboating in the prelims the day before and also lost his previous 2 world 1500m races prior to that.
His best way to shut up those doubters is to win this year.