2019 1500m first 800m: 1:51.69 1st place time: 3:29.26
2021 1500m first 800m: 1:51.76 1st place time: 3:28.32
2022 1500m first 800m: 1:51.94 1st place time: 3:29.23
2023 1500m first 800m: 1:54.19 1st place time: 3:29.38
USA 1500m first 800m: 1:55.30 1st place time: 3:30.59
i think best case scenario for Hocker is Jakob taking it out in 1:54. Ben Thomas training is all about cutting down which benefits Hocker. I have yet to see Hocker respond well after going out in 1:52 or faster.
There’s no way Jakob, Kerr, Nuguse, or even Cheruiyot would allow it to go out in 1:54. Jakob knows what happens when the pace slows in 2023 and 2022, he just won’t let it happen a third time. The other three have just as much incentive to keep the pace fast. They know if the winning time is faster than 3:30, the likelihood of them winning goes up. Anything slower, they are all exposed. If none of them don’t take the lead by 400, I’d be shocked.
Final goesJakob will never let it go slower at 2:47/48 at 1200.. then it is can anyone get in from 40-41 from there. he will never let it go too much slower, brings a lot of wild cards in, There are only a couple to three who can run in off that. Maybe Kerr.. surely Jakob Nuguse can get to that. Then it will most likely be the same two guys who have shown themselves to be better than most. You have two-4 of the same type of guys here, none can run the 1:43's Kessler has run , I believe he can get to 2:47/48.. that would be taxing. 2:50 brings a bunch of guys in, even Hocker..a 3:30 race a bunch of guys can get to, I doubt Jakob lets it go that slow. I thought about this , Hocker could win a 3:29.5 to 3:30 final. I think it unlikely that Jakob lets it be that kind of race, Nuguse could medal in that type of race. I happen to think that if Kessler made a final that would be progress. Laros is another wild card 2:14 .x is a spot where 2:18 would not hurt that bad, lightly raced this year ? A wunderkind, but...No rounds, not a lot of racing?
I agree with the idea that everyone will line up behind Jakob. Jakob is not going to move out into lane 2 so being on the rail behind him will guarantee you will be boxed in. Whoever can strike a balance between being in a good open space and not running the entire way in lane 3 will be halfway there. But they will also have to get past Jakob, which most of the time is pretty damned difficult. There is also the ordeal of getting through the rounds unscathed and still have it in your legs for the final. My money would be on Kerr. Of the USA team, Kessler. He is young and full of beans and maybe not experienced enough to think he can't win. It will be fun to watch.
Nuguse literally can't win gold. If it's a slow race, others have better kicks. If it's a fast race, he's still not as good as Jakob or Kerr. Best he can hope for is silver if it's a fast race with one of Kerr or Jakob blowing up.
Hocker needs a slow enough race where he can stay in contact when Jakob starts his windup and then outkick him from 250, just like he did with Nuguse at the Olympic Trials. If this is going sub-3:30 though, he has no shot.
Kessler needs a Centro-in-Rio race and to get his tactics perfect. Since that's not going to happen, he's not going to medal. I do expect him to make the final though.
Your analysis is spot on and yet it's getting a 2-1 downvote. Shows people are homers.
-Rojo
PS. The only hope for Nuguse is we finally see him breakthrough this week in Monaco but I haven't seen it all year. This year for him remindfs me of 2022 for Kessler. He couldn't quite replicate what he did in 2021 but he got close and then made another lead forward in 2023.
Nuguse literally can't win gold. If it's a slow race, others have better kicks. If it's a fast race, he's still not as good as Jakob or Kerr. Best he can hope for is silver if it's a fast race with one of Kerr or Jakob blowing up.
Hocker needs a slow enough race where he can stay in contact when Jakob starts his windup and then outkick him from 250, just like he did with Nuguse at the Olympic Trials. If this is going sub-3:30 though, he has no shot.
Kessler needs a Centro-in-Rio race and to get his tactics perfect. Since that's not going to happen, he's not going to medal. I do expect him to make the final though.
Your analysis is spot on and yet it's getting a 2-1 downvote. Shows people are homers.
-Rojo
PS. The only hope for Nuguse is we finally see him breakthrough this week in Monaco but I haven't seen it all year. This year for him remindfs me of 2022 for Kessler. He couldn't quite replicate what he did in 2021 but he got close and then made another lead forward in 2023.
I don't think his analysis is spot on. Most everyone on this thread speaks with such great definitiveness about who's fit and who's not and who can win and who can't. There are still so many unknowns. Not everyone is going to peak perfectly/not be sick/feel great on race day/show up when it counts. The fastest guy in Monaco will not necessarily be the fastest in Paris, especially when you introduce rounds and get rid of pacemakers. And factor in final weeks of managing fitness and peaking.
If the pace is fast in the Olympic final, as everyone expects it will be, there's a not insignificant chance that Nuguse is the man that day, that he closes faster than Jakob and Josh, and holds off Hocker. Nuguse soloed the trials final and was coming back a little bit on Hocker in the last 100. If he keeps progressing through Paris he's got a real shot.
Kerr tied up and almost didn't make it out of the rounds when he won his silver. Jakob so far has a pretty blessed run at majors but is due for a stinker. Nuguse went 3:43 last year, hasn't had a bad race this year. How can you not give him reasonable odds to win?
Nuguse literally can't win gold. If it's a slow race, others have better kicks. If it's a fast race, he's still not as good as Jakob or Kerr. Best he can hope for is silver if it's a fast race with one of Kerr or Jakob blowing up.
Hocker needs a slow enough race where he can stay in contact when Jakob starts his windup and then outkick him from 250, just like he did with Nuguse at the Olympic Trials. If this is going sub-3:30 though, he has no shot.
Kessler needs a Centro-in-Rio race and to get his tactics perfect. Since that's not going to happen, he's not going to medal. I do expect him to make the final though.
Your analysis is spot on and yet it's getting a 2-1 downvote. Shows people are homers.
-Rojo
PS. The only hope for Nuguse is we finally see him breakthrough this week in Monaco but I haven't seen it all year. This year for him remindfs me of 2022 for Kessler. He couldn't quite replicate what he did in 2021 but he got close and then made another lead forward in 2023.
It's not spot on. On paper, Nuguse isn't as good of a time trialer as Jakob, but that's why they run the races. Yared is still a 3:43 guy and you can never count that out. Noah Ngeny wasn't as fast of a time trialer as El G or had as good as a kick, but Ngeny still won gold in 2000 since the 1500 isn't a perfectly predictable event and a 3:43 guy is always in it. Jakob has to run his best race to win, and hasn't run his best race in the past 2 world championships. Yared was able to beat Josh in a Diamond League race just after worlds last year - he's able to beat Jakob on the right day.
I bet you thought Centro had literally no shot at gold in 2016 because on paper he's slower in a time trial than Kiprop and slower than Makhloufi in a sprint. But we all know how that went. Anything can happen since no one is guaranteed to run their best race. There's probably 5 or 6 guys who have a shot at winning despite what Jakob's fans would have you believe.
For the record, I think the probabilities are probably roughly 50% Jakob wins, 20% Kerr wins, 10% Yared wins, 10% Hocker wins, 10% someone else like Laros, Hobbs, or Cheruiyot surprises. The 1500 is an infamously unpredictable event.
Your analysis is spot on and yet it's getting a 2-1 downvote. Shows people are homers.
-Rojo
PS. The only hope for Nuguse is we finally see him breakthrough this week in Monaco but I haven't seen it all year. This year for him remindfs me of 2022 for Kessler. He couldn't quite replicate what he did in 2021 but he got close and then made another lead forward in 2023.
It's not spot on. On paper, Nuguse isn't as good of a time trialer as Jakob, but that's why they run the races. Yared is still a 3:43 guy and you can never count that out. Noah Ngeny wasn't as fast of a time trialer as El G or had as good as a kick, but Ngeny still won gold in 2000 since the 1500 isn't a perfectly predictable event and a 3:43 guy is always in it. Jakob has to run his best race to win, and hasn't run his best race in the past 2 world championships. Yared was able to beat Josh in a Diamond League race just after worlds last year - he's able to beat Jakob on the right day.
I bet you thought Centro had literally no shot at gold in 2016 because on paper he's slower in a time trial than Kiprop and slower than Makhloufi in a sprint. But we all know how that went. Anything can happen since no one is guaranteed to run their best race. There's probably 5 or 6 guys who have a shot at winning despite what Jakob's fans would have you believe.
For the record, I think the probabilities are probably roughly 50% Jakob wins, 20% Kerr wins, 10% Yared wins, 10% Hocker wins, 10% someone else like Laros, Hobbs, or Cheruiyot surprises. The 1500 is an infamously unpredictable event.
Wrong. The fact of the matter is, Jakob was sick last year and was not 100%. When he is 100%, he will destroy everyone, including Nuguse and Kerr.
It's not spot on. On paper, Nuguse isn't as good of a time trialer as Jakob, but that's why they run the races. Yared is still a 3:43 guy and you can never count that out. Noah Ngeny wasn't as fast of a time trialer as El G or had as good as a kick, but Ngeny still won gold in 2000 since the 1500 isn't a perfectly predictable event and a 3:43 guy is always in it. Jakob has to run his best race to win, and hasn't run his best race in the past 2 world championships. Yared was able to beat Josh in a Diamond League race just after worlds last year - he's able to beat Jakob on the right day.
I bet you thought Centro had literally no shot at gold in 2016 because on paper he's slower in a time trial than Kiprop and slower than Makhloufi in a sprint. But we all know how that went. Anything can happen since no one is guaranteed to run their best race. There's probably 5 or 6 guys who have a shot at winning despite what Jakob's fans would have you believe.
For the record, I think the probabilities are probably roughly 50% Jakob wins, 20% Kerr wins, 10% Yared wins, 10% Hocker wins, 10% someone else like Laros, Hobbs, or Cheruiyot surprises. The 1500 is an infamously unpredictable event.
Wrong. The fact of the matter is, Jakob was sick last year and was not 100%. When he is 100%, he will destroy everyone, including Nuguse and Kerr.
Wrong. The fact of the matter is, Jakob was sick last year and was not 100%. When he is 100%, he will destroy everyone, including Nuguse and Kerr.
What happened against Wightman then?
Why are you asking me? Did you watch the race? listen to what Jakob and Wightman had to say afterwards about themselves? You probably didn’t do any of your homework beforehand, which is as expected.
To win gold: pretty simple, don’t get boxed and get in the top 4-5 like USA’s and relax as much as possible. If he is within the top 4 with 400 to go he is in a good spot. Someone will make that move to pass Jakob before 200 m to go. Either Hocker does that move or he lets Kerr do it. If Kerr does it let him and then just get on Jakob’s shoulder and wind up with 150 to go. If Hocker makes the move to make the pass with 250 to go make it decisive and hope you can hold everyone off.
Yared Nuguse
To win gold: the problem with his race last year was just a terrible start at the beginning, worked his way up but was running extra distance on the outside, and didn’t make any moves to get in position to win. I think the most ideal position for him is to get behind Jakob to start and hang on. His best wins have all come down to a lean and he is probably greatest leaner I’ver ever seen. But he must lock in like he did when he ran 3:43. If he does that and doesn’t make any unnecessary moves, he can win.
Hobbs Kessler
i think he is just one year away from being in position to win. But maybe he surprises me. I’m pretty sure nobody on this board picked wightman to win in 2022. His 800m pr is .01 faster than Wightman btw. He doesn’t really have that signature kick yet, yet he can run 1:43. Kind of funny but let’s see if Ron warhurst can sharpen the blade more with Kessler. The good things about Hobbs is he has nothing to lose. Still 21 years old with a lot of championship races ahead for him.
All this talk about strategies and kick but the fact of the matter is, the best runner is the one who wins the most consistently throughout many seasons against all of his competition. Jakob is that, Kerr and Nuguse are most certaintly not that. Doesn’t matter who medals in one stupid race.
I don't think his analysis is spot on. Most everyone on this thread speaks with such great definitiveness about who's fit and who's not and who can win and who can't. There are still so many unknowns. Not everyone is going to peak perfectly/not be sick/feel great on race day/show up when it counts. The fastest guy in Monaco will not necessarily be the fastest in Paris, especially when you introduce rounds and get rid of pacemakers. And factor in final weeks of managing fitness and peaking.
If the pace is fast in the Olympic final, as everyone expects it will be, there's a not insignificant chance that Nuguse is the man that day, that he closes faster than Jakob and Josh, and holds off Hocker. Nuguse soloed the trials final and was coming back a little bit on Hocker in the last 100. If he keeps progressing through Paris he's got a real shot.
Kerr tied up and almost didn't make it out of the rounds when he won his silver. Jakob so far has a pretty blessed run at majors but is due for a stinker. Nuguse went 3:43 last year, hasn't had a bad race this year. How can you not give him reasonable odds to win?
I’d say Jakob’s 5000s have been blessed, but his 1500s? After Tokyo not at all. In 2022, he had both Tim and Kipsang taking repeated runs at him which is/was somewhat unusual. In 2023, it seems like his sickness really impacted him. The 1500 IS unpredictable but the way Jakob runs it now he could narrow it to 2/3 guys potentially. Nuguse’s biggest weakness is unless he gets the slot behind Jakob (unlikely), he is mediocre at running in packs. Do you trust him to not run extra and make the definitive, determined move like Kerr? In the two Diamond League wins, two guys (Nordas, Kerr) had to really falter at the end or allow him the inside.
People are really overestimating Jakob here. Probably because he wins all these paced diamond league races. But the overwhelming trend is that leading finals is not a winning strategy. Look at the last few years. In 2021, Cheruiyot tried to lead from the gun and got passed by Jakob in the final turn. In 2022, Jakob tried to lead from the gun and got passed at like 250m to go. In 2023, Jakob tried to lead from the gun and got passed on the final turn. Even this most recent US olympic trials (for both the men and women) shows a mirror image of all the recent global finals. Jakob is probably the most fit runner in the field, but the winner will probably be someone drafting off of him for 1200m if he decides to lead from the gun again.
People are really overestimating Jakob here. Probably because he wins all these paced diamond league races. But the overwhelming trend is that leading finals is not a winning strategy. Look at the last few years. In 2021, Cheruiyot tried to lead from the gun and got passed by Jakob in the final turn. In 2022, Jakob tried to lead from the gun and got passed at like 250m to go. In 2023, Jakob tried to lead from the gun and got passed on the final turn. Even this most recent US olympic trials (for both the men and women) shows a mirror image of all the recent global finals. Jakob is probably the most fit runner in the field, but the winner will probably be someone drafting off of him for 1200m if he decides to lead from the gun again.
It’s hard to take any of what you say seriously when you get the facts wrong. Jakob did not lead from the gun in 2022 or 2023. Neither did Cheruiyot. You have no idea what you are talking about.
People are really overestimating Jakob here. Probably because he wins all these paced diamond league races. But the overwhelming trend is that leading finals is not a winning strategy. Look at the last few years. In 2021, Cheruiyot tried to lead from the gun and got passed by Jakob in the final turn. In 2022, Jakob tried to lead from the gun and got passed at like 250m to go. In 2023, Jakob tried to lead from the gun and got passed on the final turn. Even this most recent US olympic trials (for both the men and women) shows a mirror image of all the recent global finals. Jakob is probably the most fit runner in the field, but the winner will probably be someone drafting off of him for 1200m if he decides to lead from the gun again.
It’s hard to take any of what you say seriously when you get the facts wrong. Jakob did not lead from the gun in 2022 or 2023. Neither did Cheruiyot. You have no idea what you are talking about.
In fact, all three races were very different in the strategies employed. Tokyo was a clear and cut all out effort from Tim and he was beaten by Jakob. Eugene was similar except Jakob did not lead wire to wire, he took the lead after running in lane 2 for the whole race like an idiot. He would have won if he had stayed back. Budapest, Jakob was more reserved in leading due to the illness he had. At the end though, Jakob is the clear best runner from the past 3 years due to his continued dominance in times and winning throughout entire seasons.
I can't believe people here are saying Jakob is the favorite to win, or even saying he has a 50% chance of winning. Idk if that's people underestimating Kerr or overestimating Jakob, probably both. Jakob is great, but his strategy would always make him vulnerable in the 1500m final and Kerr or even Nuguse are catching up on the endurance side, especially Kerr with his 8:00 2 miles and the performance at Pre. If anything, I think Kerr is the man to beat in Paris and I actually hate that guy (and like Jakob).
People are really overestimating Jakob here. Probably because he wins all these paced diamond league races. But the overwhelming trend is that leading finals is not a winning strategy. Look at the last few years. In 2021, Cheruiyot tried to lead from the gun and got passed by Jakob in the final turn. In 2022, Jakob tried to lead from the gun and got passed at like 250m to go. In 2023, Jakob tried to lead from the gun and got passed on the final turn. Even this most recent US olympic trials (for both the men and women) shows a mirror image of all the recent global finals. Jakob is probably the most fit runner in the field, but the winner will probably be someone drafting off of him for 1200m if he decides to lead from the gun again.
Yeah, a controlled TT is completely different from a championship race with rounds. As much as I find Rojo an idiot, he's spot on last year asking the question if Jakob has practiced running without pacers. Everyone laughed at him, even Jakob himself jokingly said he's the pacemaker, but Rojo was right there.
Nuguse literally can't win gold. If it's a slow race, others have better kicks. If it's a fast race, he's still not as good as Jakob or Kerr. Best he can hope for is silver if it's a fast race with one of Kerr or Jakob blowing up.
Hocker needs a slow enough race where he can stay in contact when Jakob starts his windup and then outkick him from 250, just like he did with Nuguse at the Olympic Trials. If this is going sub-3:30 though, he has no shot.
Kessler needs a Centro-in-Rio race and to get his tactics perfect. Since that's not going to happen, he's not going to medal. I do expect him to make the final though.
"Literally" can´t win gold? Are you saying it´s against the laws of nature?