Im surprised Sky isn't running at Vista. They seem to be getting all sorts of recruits and transfers. I'd think that the top incoming freshman miler isnt on their roster. Give it time I guess.
Coplan is 100 times the coach Dalby is. Look at Coplan's progressiom with freshman VS Dalby. If I were a fast freshman I would be going to Chap too!!!
This is laughable! The results say otherwise and it’s not even close. At best Coplen is a mediocre coach that’s had good luck recruiting/inheriting athletes that make him look good. Sure, he’s had a few runners show a lot of progression their freshman year. But if you look at those results a little closer it’s typically someone with limited experience coming into his program with a reasonably high ceiling, so their progression is natural and quick because it was going to happen regardless the coach. His juniors/seniors have always left a lot to be desired with very little progression later in high school. With all the stellar individual names you can attach to Greg Coplen, he still hasn’t produced a team title which is surprising. Or is it? Maybe that’s the difference in a really good coach like Dalby and a mediocre coach like Coplen. 100 times the coach is a bit of stretch.
4A Boys: TV (runner up Coronado - no depth but very good top end - could be very close)
5A Boys: Niwot, Valor and Rock Canyon. Amazing to me that Niwot boys move up to 5A and are suddenly contenders.
5A Girls: Niwot, Vista, AA (it will be close between 2 and 3) Niwot have 1 or 2 girls that did not run at State/NXN that were not seniors that are going to be their #3-5 this year at State, ahead of AA, as, without Rainsberger actively pipe-lining her club kids into AA, Coach Mumbles, I mean Schwartz, will continue running to the bottom (like the AA boys).
4A Boys: TV, CHS, Northfield/Battle Mountain
Unless Rainsberger is getting a hot freshman, they are 2nd, at best.
I think that the Cheyenne Mountain boys team will get top 10 at NXR. They have a strong 1&2 (Collins (15:11) and LeRoux (15:17)). Their next 4 returners went 16:14, 16:24, 16:33, and 16:46 at NXR last year.
This year's classification changes will have more impact than any other I can recall over the last few decades.
Tier 1 - NXN potential
Tier 2 - NXR top 10 potential (only 3 or 4 most years)
Tier 3 - NXR championship race potential (about 10 or 12 most years)
5A boys
Tier 1 - Niwot
Tier 2 - Vista, Rock Canyon, Valor
Tier 3 - Fort Collins, Northfield, Fossil Ridge, Air Academy, Castle View, Pine Creek, Arapahoe, Cherry Creek
After Niwot, 5A just looks crowded. Someone here said Niwot's JV would be top 10 at state - I actually think they could be top 4 or 5. Vista, Valor, and Rock Canyon all at this point don't look to be as good as they were last year. Castle View is getting a few stud freshmen to go with a strong sophomore class. Air Academy is young. Northfield will be just fine in 5A as they are deep.
4A boys
Tier 1 - Coronado
Tier 1.5 - Thompson Valley
Tier 2 - Cheyenne Mountain
Tier 3 - Holy Family, Summit, Eagle Valley
With a top 4 that should theoretically be able to hold their own against anyone in the country, Coronado is the only other team that has a chance to be near Niwot. Thompson Valley has been getting better rapidly and if they stay the course should be the clear #3 team in the state. Holy Family was poised to challenge for 3A this fall but will probably have to contend for a top 5 spot in 4A instead.
3A Boys
Tier 3 - TCA, Jefferson Academy
TCA gets a gift on a down year by not having to defend against Holy Family and Berthoud. There are only about 30 boys that have even broken 5:00 in 3A, and a dozen of them are either TCA or JA.
I’d take out Pine Creek and add in Boulder. Also I heard that one of the good Pine Creek kids is transferring to Coronado. If that’s true it really rounds them into an NXN contender. Assuming they can finally put things together in cross.
I agree pretty spot on. Well done. If Manley is still at Grandview I would throw the Wolves into the 5A tier 3 group. Looks like this year Colorado boys has a lot of solid strong teams but only a couple national class teams.
Also is Ritzs son in 8th now or is he in 9th this year? Same with the Goucher son.
Vista, Valor, and Rock Canyon all at this point don't look to be as good as they were last year.
Vista boys will at do better at NXR than they did last year when they took 14th. They won’t make NXN but they will be top 10 at NXR.
They return a devastating trio (Anderson, Adams, Wachter. All of those guys scored at NXR.)
And then after these 3, they have:
Wakimura (16:23 / 4:36)
Windholz (16:30 / 4:35 / 10:16)
Bolthouse (16:58 / 10:16) (as a freshman)
Balfe (16:51 / 10:27)
Valor Christian took 9th at NXR last year and has the potential to do better than that after losing only Eike. This will also depend on how good their new coach is.
Vista, Valor, and Rock Canyon all at this point don't look to be as good as they were last year.
Vista boys will at do better at NXR than they did last year when they took 14th. They won’t make NXN but they will be top 10 at NXR.
They return a devastating trio (Anderson, Adams, Wachter. All of those guys scored at NXR.)
And then after these 3, they have:
Wakimura (16:23 / 4:36)
Windholz (16:30 / 4:35 / 10:16)
Bolthouse (16:58 / 10:16) (as a freshman)
Balfe (16:51 / 10:27)
Valor Christian took 9th at NXR last year and has the potential to do better than that after losing only Eike. This will also depend on how good their new coach is.
Those 5k prs are from a short course (assuming it’s the one in grand junction).
Mountain Vista also has had studs come out of nowhere, even senior year.
Like Jack Simmons dropping almost 1 minute in the 5k from junior to senior year (17:11 at NXR in ‘21 -> 16:15 at NXR in ‘22), and nothing special in track in between.
And Jameson Tokle (17:51 at NXR in ‘21 -> 16:27 at NXR in ‘23, and no XC in ‘22).
I’d take out Pine Creek and add in Boulder. Also I heard that one of the good Pine Creek kids is transferring to Coronado. If that’s true it really rounds them into an NXN contender. Assuming they can finally put things together in cross.
Coronado top returners
Campos - 4:17
Horton - 4:19 / 8:53
Potts - 4:21 / 9:04
Davidson - 4:25
Slater - 4:43 / 10:00
Without any transfers, they are a 5th runner away from challenging for an NXN spot.
I’d take out Pine Creek and add in Boulder. Also I heard that one of the good Pine Creek kids is transferring to Coronado. If that’s true it really rounds them into an NXN contender. Assuming they can finally put things together in cross.
If this is true, that kid would lose a year of eligibility. How would that make any difference for this years run to NXN?
I’d take out Pine Creek and add in Boulder. Also I heard that one of the good Pine Creek kids is transferring to Coronado. If that’s true it really rounds them into an NXN contender. Assuming they can finally put things together in cross.
If this is true, that kid would lose a year of eligibility. How would that make any difference for this years run to NXN?
I thought colorado switched to the you lose the first half of the season scheme, which makes means they would run nxr and nxn
If it’s an athletically motivated transfer they lose the entire CSHAA season. NXR/NXN do not care about state transfer rules, which is why otherwise ineligible runners frequently run for their schools NXR teams. See Valor 2019, Vista last year, etc…
Vista, Valor, and Rock Canyon all at this point don't look to be as good as they were last year.
Vista boys will at do better at NXR than they did last year when they took 14th. They won’t make NXN but they will be top 10 at NXR.
They return a devastating trio (Anderson, Adams, Wachter. All of those guys scored at NXR.)
And then after these 3, they have:
Wakimura (16:23 / 4:36)
Windholz (16:30 / 4:35 / 10:16)
Bolthouse (16:58 / 10:16) (as a freshman)
Balfe (16:51 / 10:27)
Valor Christian took 9th at NXR last year and has the potential to do better than that after losing only Eike. This will also depend on how good their new coach is.
Balfe also ran a 10:16 3200 as a sophomore in 2023
