I don’t think those times for Valby take into account those from other countries who may opt out of the 10K for various reasons.
Definitely true, but couldn’t others from other countries also theoretically move up with strong results in other meets/Trials?
In reality, she might run 31:50 for 3rd and have it be enough, but it also might not be, which is why she might be better served by doing what she did in the 5000.
Except the window to do so is fast approaching. Unless this race is very fast, it’s plausible we may not know whether or not some of the top three are actually going to Paris, until the qualification window closes, and scratches from other countries are verified.
It’s interesting that Kelati is 27 years old, and didn’t top Valby’s current 5K and 10K PRs until this year. She hasn’t had any victories of note on the track. Why didn’t she finish the 10K in the 2020 trials?
Kelati was a lock in 2020 I think the heat did it.
This year I'd say Kelati is probably the only one that would help trade the lead with Valby and they both would be rewarded for it. If I was Valby after that 5k I'd stick on Karissa and make her do all the work then try to drop her with 1.5-2.5 miles to go. Make them work for you not the other way around. Monson and Sisson wouldn't make it so easy on the rest of the field. Valby almost has that strength to punish the entire field pace wise but I think she should work with Kelati to get it done.
What is the rationale for Kelati to help pace? She is the only one with the standard. She will likely do what Megan Keith did at the British Trials 10000m; do just enough that assures a victory. True, that might be a bit of gamble in losing out the top spot, if so.
These are mine: Weini Kelati, Karissa Schweizer, Parker Valby. I feel these three have been showing their fitness and running the fastest times recently.
Who are your picks and who else do you feel has a chance to be in the top three? Also what other runners do you feel might exceed people's expectations and do well?
Same. Unfortunately Henes has not seemed back to form since her lung injury. I hope she runs well though.
Schweitzer, Kelati, Vestri depending on 5k effects on Schweitzer’s legs and if Vestri tapered correctly. Valby leads early and falls off the pace as the race progresses.
As I said, Kelati has the standard. She can be the one responding to the action, rather than forcing the action. There is no point arguing this if you don’t want to understand that.
The British ‘Night of the 10000m’ was online, for those interested in watching the Keith, O’Keefe and Vestri battle.
As I said, Kelati has the standard. She can be the one responding to the action, rather than forcing the action. There is no point arguing this if you don’t want to understand that.
The British ‘Night of the 10000m’ was online, for those interested in watching the Keith, O’Keefe and Vestri battle.
I mention that race again, because Keith sat back, not pushing the pace, until the battle at the end, and she was literally taken to the wire by O’Keefe, winning by only 0.44 seconds!
Schweitzer, Kelati, Vestri depending on 5k effects on Schweitzer’s legs and if Vestri tapered correctly. Valby leads early and falls off the pace as the race progresses.
If Valby was near tears before the 5000m final, how is she getting along for this final, if she knows she is running on fumes at this point?
Schweitzer, Kelati, Vestri depending on 5k effects on Schweitzer’s legs and if Vestri tapered correctly. Valby leads early and falls off the pace as the race progresses.
If Valby was near tears before the 5000m final, how is she getting along for this final, if she knows she is running on fumes at this point?
I think Henes is more fit than many are thinking. She was already back into 15:12 shape over 5 weeks ago at LA Grand Prix and has likely gotten in a good block after that since she only ran one 1500 between that race and the trials and 2 of the favorites are coming in with 10k of racing in their legs over the previous 8 days.
Her fast 10,000m was from last year, her time this year was only like 31:10 at the fast 10,000m race. And Valby ran sub 15 indoors, didn't she? And 14:52 a couple weeks ago. So not sure why you're making 15:12 5 weeks ago seem like it's a reason for her to beat Valby. A 10,000m five days after a 5,000m is plenty of time to recover. Might even be beneficial as the 10,000m pace will feel slow compared to the 14:50 she just ran.
I think it will be Kelati, Schweizer, Valby, and then a sizeable gap of 100 meters to anyone else by the end. If Valby runs another 30:50 ish with bonus points she should be in on ranking. Obviously a sub 30:40 would give her the standard.
Kelati was a lock in 2020 I think the heat did it.
This year I'd say Kelati is probably the only one that would help trade the lead with Valby and they both would be rewarded for it. If I was Valby after that 5k I'd stick on Karissa and make her do all the work then try to drop her with 1.5-2.5 miles to go. Make them work for you not the other way around. Monson and Sisson wouldn't make it so easy on the rest of the field. Valby almost has that strength to punish the entire field pace wise but I think she should work with Kelati to get it done.
What is the rationale for Kelati to help pace? She is the only one with the standard. She will likely do what Megan Keith did at the British Trials 10000m; do just enough that assures a victory. True, that might be a bit of gamble in losing out the top spot, if so.
Kelati's style of running would compliment Valby with pacing tactics. I doubt Kelati will be completely content to simply sit on Valby like the 3 women in the 5k. It's in both of their best interests to weaken any closers and at least make it a 3 person race. Mainly Karissa and Smith I'd be worried about lingering around.
What is the rationale for Kelati to help pace? She is the only one with the standard. She will likely do what Megan Keith did at the British Trials 10000m; do just enough that assures a victory. True, that might be a bit of gamble in losing out the top spot, if so.
Kelati's style of running would compliment Valby with pacing tactics. I doubt Kelati will be completely content to simply sit on Valby like the 3 women in the 5k. It's in both of their best interests to weaken any closers and at least make it a 3 person race. Mainly Karissa and Smith I'd be worried about lingering around.
After thinking about it some more, I would not be at all surprised if Kelati gets out there and trades lead. She is so far ahead of the rest of the field, and coming in fresh, that going to the front wouldn’t bother her. She would get positive face time leading, and she wouldn’t be making the mistake Keith almost made in that British Champs race, by waiting too long.
Pretty much this. Parker will use the same strategy she used in the 5000, but it'll work a lot better because the 10,000 is a lot longer, so there's more room to get into a winning pack. There are seldom more than 3 people closing together at the end of a 10,000, while a 5,000 can be almost like a 1500 at times.
