Hobbs legit just jogged it in

NBC's track coverage is very, very obviously run by people who are not actual track fans. the stupid titles in the youtube videos, the cutting away to commercials on the penultimate lap of distance races, the mph and heart rate instead of lap splits, etc just reeks of incorrect stabs at "this is probably what those track fans want"

I think people really underestimate Cole in a fast (but not balls out) race. In a paced 3:27-3:28 race, yeah I don't expect him to hang. He would still close well and likely run a PB but he'll be too far back in any race that goes out under 1:52. But one of his biggest strengths as an athlete is his ability to run very close to his PR with huge negative splits and a very fast close. A race that goes out in 1:56-1:58 with a wind-up the last 500 is PERFECT for him and I could easily see him winning in 3:32ish in a race like that. Something like the Tokyo semis (3:33 with a 52 close) or 2021 NCAAs (3:35 with a 1:48 close), but a bit faster to reflect his improved fitness (and the heightened competition). I actually think in a truly slow race (3:40ish) he's a lot weaker, because there's a TON of guys who can close a 3:40 race in 51-52 seconds, and some of them can do it with a quicker last 100 than Hocker (like Beamish indoors this year). Nuguse being at the front also starts to matter at that point, when everyone is closing fast that 1-2 meter advantage can mean everything.

TL;DR: the best strategy for Nuguse (1:56-1:58 first 800 and then a long wind-up) is also going to work in Hocker's favor, and while he guarantees his spot like that he also sets himself up to get Centro'd.

Because it is the big two.

I agree with this. I think Kessler has as much natural talent as anyone in the field, but it’s time to prove he has championship mettle. In four years, we won’t be saying he’s just a kid anymore. I sincerely hope he makes the team and even has a shot to win the race at the line.

This is him in a 3:42 race 2021 in the semi’s. Dropped an effortless looking 51 second 400 in lane 2 laughing with Centro, before that legendary showdown in the final.

I find it difficult to picture anyone other than Nuguse/Hocker/Kessler making the team. They seem like a distinguished top 3 from the meet so far. Everyone else has been scrapping just to make the next round.

Just the opposite.

I agree that Nuguse/Hocker/Kessler are the most likely Olympians. They should do well in a fast final (provided Hocker doesn't get himself critically boxed late, like he sometimes does, and that Kessler really has learned the rail is not his friend). If the pace dawdles, others in the field become dangerous, and someone with their own blazing kick (such as Waskom) might steal a spot, although he would still have to find a race within a week to get a qualifying time, and he'd have to GET that qualifying time.

My prediction is one or more of the young bucks will take it out fast because they have to, they don't have a qualifier. The Big 3 (above) will reel them in sometime late in 3rd lap/early to mid 4th lap, and the Big 3 make the team.

The Big 3 in the 1500m can be vulnerable in a slow race, but not in a fast one.

Maybe Teare can hang around until last 200m but he does have the wheels late in the game. Besides, he is a 5k runner moving down. 1500 is not his event.

The rest simply cannot stay with the top 4 in an honest race.

Wanna tell me the lottery numbers for tomorrow?

Really happy for Kessler. Ran smart, didn’t get boxed, held on in a very fast race. 55 sec third lap.

Easy dubs for Hobbs over that Oregon guy and Nuguse huh? Lol glad Hobbs was third but to think he was going to win, he barely beat Vince at the line

The Paris final is going to be Jakob rabbiting a 3:27 and daring anyone to follow. It works out much better for Hobbs than these trials. Maybe he or Nuguse can hold on for bronze.

How did I do?

You have to be able to run 3:27/8 to medal though in that case.

He just needs to enjoy the Olympics and the experience.

He’s not even close to medalling though. 2028 and beyond.

true, but the rest of this forum was saying Hobbs was washed up at 20. Pretty consistently. He's going to the olympics from a fast trials final! Zero people would have predicted that a year ago.

My failed prediction was a more fun scenario than the usually “Nuguse from start” or Hocker sit and kicking.

All 3 are beasts. Awesome race