Gator vs Wildcat. No scenario (land or water) where the wildcat can take out the gator. And for that reason....expect the chomp in Ducktown USA
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nnnmmnb wrote:
VIPAM wrote:
I don't understand T&FN logic as they have Valby beating everyone (including Ellie) in the 5000m but losing to Weini in the 10000m. In my opinion the 10000m is Valby's strongest track event, so what is T&FN thinking?
Maybe it is about the clicks.
One thing is for sure, ESP is likely to feel it in the legs from a very hard 5000m when she lines up to face McKay (who recently destroyed her in an 800m) and Hiltz.
And I think Kelati is the closest thing to a lock in the 10000m. I think she could have made both the 5 & 10 teams, no problem. But now she will be running just the 10, fresh. She’ll probably sit on Valby for a while, then try to drop her.
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5kscorcher wrote:
Thinking Valby is gonna beat World Champ St. Pierre or the reigning 3x USA Champ Cranny is wild. Granted anything can happen, but I’d say fall from either or illness has to occur for Parker to win. If Karissa was 100%, don’t see her not making top 3 either
ESP is world champ at 3k not 5k. ESP has never won a significant championship at 5k. Valby has. And ESP has said her focus is the 1500 not 5k.
Cranny has been bouncing around from one training group to the next. She is not in top form.
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nnnmmnb wrote:
VIPAM wrote:
I don't understand T&FN logic as they have Valby beating everyone (including Ellie) in the 5000m but losing to Weini in the 10000m. In my opinion the 10000m is Valby's strongest track event, so what is T&FN thinking?
Maybe it is about the clicks.
One thing is for sure, ESP is likely to feel it in the legs from a very hard 5000m when she lines up to face McKay (who recently destroyed her in an 800m) and Hiltz.
It's a full 5 days to recover. She may even still run a hard workout day in between.
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VIPAM wrote:
I don't understand T&FN logic as they have Valby beating everyone (including Ellie) in the 5000m but losing to Weini in the 10000m. In my opinion the 10000m is Valby's strongest track event, so what is T&FN thinking?
The know valby is like Jacob and she is training through everything until the trials where everyone else will already have peaked weeks ago
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from here to eternity wrote:
nnnmmnb wrote:
Maybe it is about the clicks.
One thing is for sure, ESP is likely to feel it in the legs from a very hard 5000m when she lines up to face McKay (who recently destroyed her in an 800m) and Hiltz.
It's a full 5 days to recover. She may even still run a hard workout day in between.
The 5000m final is on Monday, and the 1500m rounds start Thursday. 🙄
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Wait, looking at the list now, it doesn’t seem like it’s in their predicted order. It’s who they predict will make up the 10.
Also not very accurate; it has Gabby Thomas as running the 400m (she’s not.)This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.23 -
Dwightarm wrote:
Wait, looking at the list now, it doesn’t seem like it’s in their predicted order. It’s who they predict will make up the 10.
Also not very accurate; it has Gabby Thomas as running the 400m (she’s not.)
Do you have a link to what the OP is talking about?
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NickBareChemistryClownShow wrote:
On another thread, someone posted Tuohy ran a 14:40 time trial recently. One way or another, we will soon see how the Nick Bare chemistry works for her.
Nobody runs a 5000m time trial when gearing up for a 5000m race. At least pretend like you know something about the sport.
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VIPAM wrote:
Is T&FN serious with picking Parker Valby to win the 5000m and Ellie St. Pierre 2nd? All jokes aside I think highly of Parker but picking her over a World Champion who is faster at every event from 800m to the actually 5000m, what and where is the logic?
Do they think she is going to flat out outrun Ellie or throw in a push that no U S. pro can match. Gudaf couldn't drop Ellie but they think Valby will...😳
They don't even have Allie O cracking the top 10 in the steeple. Who do I contact there to make a bet.
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Er... wrote:
NickBareChemistryClownShow wrote:
On another thread, someone posted Tuohy ran a 14:40 time trial recently. One way or another, we will soon see how the Nick Bare chemistry works for her.
Nobody runs a 5000m time trial when gearing up for a 5000m race. At least pretend like you know something about the sport.
He was just conveying what was reported on another thread, sparky, so take it up over there if you have a problem with it.
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nmb wrote:
Dwightarm wrote:
Wait, looking at the list now, it doesn’t seem like it’s in their predicted order. It’s who they predict will make up the 10.
Also not very accurate; it has Gabby Thomas as running the 400m (she’s not.)
Do you have a link to what the OP is talking about?
Here is what they call their ‘form chart’. They have athletes listed in some events that aren’t even entered:
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Clownage wrote:
VIPAM wrote:
Is T&FN serious with picking Parker Valby to win the 5000m and Ellie St. Pierre 2nd? All jokes aside I think highly of Parker but picking her over a World Champion who is faster at every event from 800m to the actually 5000m, what and where is the logic?
Do they think she is going to flat out outrun Ellie or throw in a push that no U S. pro can match. Gudaf couldn't drop Ellie but they think Valby will...😳
They don't even have Allie O cracking the top 10 in the steeple. Who do I contact there to make a bet.
Fair chance Allie O places 6-10. Absolutely no way she cracks the top 5. If she continues progressing, 2025 Worlds is possible.
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Valby is a bit of a wildcard. Nobody knows how fast she can go against better competition. She probably doesn’t even know. When she ran her 14:56 indoor, she legitimately seemed shock by it, and said she was expecting to run something around 15:20. I’m not making any predictions here, and nothing would surprise me.
This post was edited 31 seconds after it was posted.110 -
Thevoiceofreason wrote:
Valby is a bit of a wildcard. Nobody knows how fast she can go against better competition. She probably doesn’t even know. When she ran her 14:56 indoor, she legitimately seemed shock by it, and said she was expecting to run something around 15:20. I’m not making any predictions here, and nothing would surprise me.
...
True Valby is an unknown in the event against pro competition, she wouldn't surprise me if she was capable of 14:35 and neither would it shock me if she doesn't make top 3. Her limits is kinda unknown as she has never faced SEVERAL faster females.
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You could also argue that the unknown is that she can’t run much faster than she already has. I’m still not sure if she is able to peak similar to how other pros will for the trials with limited load.
If the final is slow, she is not going to outkick cranny or esp(or probably Josette if she is healthy tbh). I am confident she is not in sub-4 min 1500 shape.
I think the final is only going to be fast if she makes it fast, but the other women are just going to sit on her. Can she drop all but 2 of them?
I think Valby is outstanding, but not sure if this is her year to make the 5k.
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I also think people are sleeping on Karissa, especially for the 10K.
She had achilles surgery in Oct 2021, beat Alicia in 30:49 at usas in May 2022 and ran 30:18 in a world champs final in July 2022.
Now she’s had Achilles surgery in Oct 2023 and ran 31:04 only 5 months out in March. You’ve got to think she can run much faster than that now.
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5kscorcher wrote:
You could also argue that the unknown is that she can’t run much faster than she already has. I’m still not sure if she is able to peak similar to how other pros will for the trials with limited load.
I think the part I bolded is what is getting confused when people try to diss her ‘magic arc training’ on this board, because based upon the pieces of information from journalistic articles, podcasts, interviews from both her and her coaches, it very well could be that the amount of training “load” (as you put it) that collegiate Valby has put in to get to her level of conditioning, far and away exceeds at least 80% (if not considerably more) of the pro athletes she will be facing at the Trials.
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Sorry I wasn’t trying to diss her. I should’ve been more clear about a limited running specific load. It was more of a comparison to her peers training. Everyone knows how a traditional peak works when running. The top USA pros will try to peak 2x this summer with a taper. But the cross training is still a question mark in this area imo.
Parker has kept the same form the entire season. Example: 14:56 dec, 14:52 march , 14:52 June. You can argue she wasn’t being pushed by others, but she was clearly going for the oly standard in the last one. If she reduces her cross training load does she get another 20 seconds off her 5k like others are suggesting? We don’t know.
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