My Predictions for the US Men’s 1500 Olympic Team

Kessler's best bet is to lead from the gun, like he did in Scotland to earn world bronze. Run like Centro in Rio - keep challengers from taking the lead - but at a much faster pace. 56, 1:53, 2:50, 3:31 will get him on the team for sure.

Yes, there are downsides to front running. But given Hobbs' consistent tactical mistakes and remarkable ability to go full contact with other runners, he needs to lead from the start and hang on as long as he can. Only Nuguse and Hocker can run 3:31 or better.

I think we could tighten up some of that math by removing Prakel and Wynne

Completely agree. I don't like Kessler's chances at all if he's not leading the race after the first lap.

2014 Olympic Trials 1500m Profiles
Black Man Jack
Age: 27
PR (Personal Record): 3:36.89
Bio: Known for his explosive finishing kick and strategic racing, Black Man Jack has been a consistent performer in middle-distance events. His ability to accelerate in the final stretch makes him a formidable contender.

Whistle Jam Joe
Age: 25
PR: 3:38.21
Bio: A rising star in the middle-distance scene, Whistle Jam Joe is known for his aggressive racing style and tactical prowess. With a recent string of strong performances, he's poised to challenge the established favorites.

Billy Bob Thornton
Age: 30
PR: 3:39.45
Bio: A seasoned veteran with a knack for maintaining pace throughout races, Billy Bob Thornton brings experience and resilience to the track. His steady consistency and tactical awareness make him a contender in any field.

Odds of Winning:
Black Man Jack: 2.5 to 1 - With his impressive PR and finishing speed, he's a top pick for victory.

Whistle Jam Joe: 3 to 1 - His recent form and aggressive racing style make him a strong contender.

Billy Bob Thornton: 5 to 1 - Experience counts, and Thornton's ability to execute race plans effectively could lead to a podium finish.

These athletes bring a mix of speed, strategy, and experience to the 2014 Olympic Trials, promising an exciting and competitive 1500m event.

I agree that Kessler's odds are much better from the front

However, he qualified for Indoor Worlds after being in 7th at 800 and 6th 1K in

In that race, he beat Teare, Wynne, Prakel, Ellis, Engels, Holt.

He's definitely better off from the front, but he's not out of it from the back at all

Good call.

Dude it’s 2024 not 2014. Who are these people?

You expect Kessler to front run a PB? that’ll kill him and Teare will pass him (similar PB)

It’s called satire!

The truth is we don’t know who will win. Thats the beauty of the trials. It unpredictable and any can make the team on a good day!!!!

Yared Nuguse's impressive 3:43 mile time positions him as the clear favorite heading into the competition. However, Matthew Centrowitz has demonstrated resilience in major races, which could make him a “danger man”. It will be fascinating to see how their strengths play out in the upcoming event. Hocker is also underestimated as he went deep into the 2020/21 Olympics.

Teare is a terrible racer. His 332 PB was a time trial. Great runner but gets the tactics wrong on the big stage time and time again. I'll be shocked if he makes it

Kessler likely will get passed if he tries to front run a PB, but the hope would be that only Nuguse/Hocker can pass him.

Are you aware he ran a 3:48 mile this year? That's 3:31. He also ran a 1:45 low 800 last month and was impeded in the final stretch.

Yeah, he can front run a 3:31 in the trials final.

If anything, this is evidence that he doesn't necessarily have to front-run.

Didn't front-run for any of these results, and there's probably only 3-5 guys with 1:44 (cleaner race and he goes 144 last month) leg speed in this race, and only Hocker can match his strength and speed

Literally you: I agree that Kessler's odds are much better from the front

His odds are better from the front.

The 145 is just proof that he also has flat speed to qualify from the back if he has to

Although now that I think about it, that 145 was not exactly an example of smooth running from the back.......

Lack of NCAA racing practice may come back to bite him here. Good runner. Good kid. Pulling for him.

Remind us again how he fared in last year's US 1500 trial? I might've forgotten but I don't think it was anywhere near the top 3...

Yep, this is also why I believe I will never die.

Predicting this type of reply, I did say "Olympic."

But more than anything, it was an endearing remark about the longevity of his career and it's amazing that we are still talking about him being in the mix of the 1500, not having moved up in distance like the old talents frequently do

I completely agree that Kessler should go straight to the front but I also think it would be foolhardy and unnecessary to try to run 3:31. Just get to the front and then start running ~59 pace until someone tries to challenge, and then do the least amount of work possible to hold them off. Accept that Nuguse might pass on the 3rd lap and be ready to aggressively cling to his right shoulder when he does; make it all about being in the top-2 with 300m left, and then trust that your fitness and 800 speed will make it very hard for two others to overtake you from there.