They are, but "gradually faster" isn't the usual definition of a kick.
He squeezes as much as he kicks and he can smoothly hit an impressive top gear and hold it. He is vulnerable in the last 50 if he is trailing or you are someone who can shift gears off a fast pace. I find it surprising that people don't acknowledge this, as it was a problem for El Guerrouj too and is honestly nothing to be defensive about. You could see what Tim did in Stockholm the last 50 where it looked like he hit the turbo button. Sure Jakob wasn't at his 100% best with travel and a hard effort beforehand, but he was shadowboxing and racing the mascot 30 seconds later. The problem was not fitness, it is an aspect of his, his sole weakness as a 1500m runner. Josh or Jake beat him by getting by him, but the other way would be to wait, wait, wait and then come by in the last 50 when he doesn't have another gear to fend you off. 12.89 in a 3:31.9 race is impressive, but again Brian Komen closed in similar on an extremely windy, early season race in Doha that was only marginally slower. Komen himself was asked about beating Jakob and he said he is great at pacing and his only vulnerability is that extra gear in the last 50. He is correct. Josh Kerr has intimated the same and it is what he was referencing with the "yes-man" comments. Running from the front is always going to be a challenge, but it is more Jakob's ability/inability to either chase down someone who passes him (from 300-150 out) or hold off a patient kicker in the last 50 that is the crux of the matter. This becomes moot if his fitness advantage is such that he builds a gap like Tim in Doha 2019. But I can't see that happening.
The gradually faster 100m splits for the last 700m is a thing of beauty, even on paper.
Very impressive for sure. I think this is what he'll try to do in Paris, but he'll need to open a gap before the last 200 for it to work. Remains to be seen if he'll be fit enough
The squeeze boils the frogs, to mix metaphors. If one of the frogs survives the boiling squeeze, Jakob is vulnerable. He seems to be aware of that, and intimated that may have been a problem when he lost to Jake Wightman, when he didn't boil the water enough between 800-1200 meters.
The squeeze boils the frogs, to mix metaphors. If one of the frogs survives the boiling squeeze, Jakob is vulnerable. He seems to be aware of that, and intimated that may have been a problem when he lost to Jake Wightman, when he didn't boil the water enough between 800-1200 meters.
Yeah the tricky thing is while he’s gotten better so has the field. Nuguse, Kerr and maybe another name or two (Tim, Komen), can potentially survive that squeeze. Kerr looks confident attacking at any point and being decisive. Nuguse in this regard is somewhat of a question mark but he’d probably be very patient. Tim if he is able to stay healthy showed his blueprint in Oslo.
He squeezes as much as he kicks and he can smoothly hit an impressive top gear and hold it. He is vulnerable in the last 50 if he is trailing or you are someone who can shift gears off a fast pace. I find it surprising that people don't acknowledge this, as it was a problem for El Guerrouj too and is honestly nothing to be defensive about. You could see what Tim did in Stockholm the last 50 where it looked like he hit the turbo button. Sure Jakob wasn't at his 100% best with travel and a hard effort beforehand, but he was shadowboxing and racing the mascot 30 seconds later. The problem was not fitness, it is an aspect of his, his sole weakness as a 1500m runner. Josh or Jake beat him by getting by him, but the other way would be to wait, wait, wait and then come by in the last 50 when he doesn't have another gear to fend you off. 12.89 in a 3:31.9 race is impressive, but again Brian Komen closed in similar on an extremely windy, early season race in Doha that was only marginally slower. Komen himself was asked about beating Jakob and he said he is great at pacing and his only vulnerability is that extra gear in the last 50. He is correct. Josh Kerr has intimated the same and it is what he was referencing with the "yes-man" comments. Running from the front is always going to be a challenge, but it is more Jakob's ability/inability to either chase down someone who passes him (from 300-150 out) or hold off a patient kicker in the last 50 that is the crux of the matter. This becomes moot if his fitness advantage is such that he builds a gap like Tim in Doha 2019. But I can't see that happening.
I don’t agree -I think a fast 50 last meters is a rarity in a fast race. But I think a number of athletes (also Jakob) can have this as a part of a longer kick. But the athlete then has energy left -very little about kicking ability. Even a Beamish and a Nordås can only do this if they have conserved energy by giving some meters to the leaders…
Rewatch some of Jakob’s losses: The two times against Kerr, and WC against Wightman -no kick there from the Brits the last 50m. -Jakob held his position or faded slightly. And against Kiplimo (3000m 2020) and Gebrhiwet (5000m 2019) it’s the same -Jakob faded slightly the few last meters. No 50m kick from his competitors. Jakob is simply being outrun by better athletes the actual day..!
Let me add something about Cheruiyot: Yes, he gained on Jakob in Oslo, and would have won without Jakob’s dive. But in my eyes that had nothing to do with a kicking ability from the Kenyan. -Jakob simply hit a wall, whereas Cheruiyot didn’t. And in Jakob’s first sub 3.30 race (2020) Cheruiyot’s newfound speed the last 50m seemed to come from him easing down to let Jakob catch up -and then out sprinting him based on this conserved energy…
This post was edited 13 minutes after it was posted.
He squeezes as much as he kicks and he can smoothly hit an impressive top gear and hold it. He is vulnerable in the last 50 if he is trailing or you are someone who can shift gears off a fast pace. I find it surprising that people don't acknowledge this, as it was a problem for El Guerrouj too and is honestly nothing to be defensive about. You could see what Tim did in Stockholm the last 50 where it looked like he hit the turbo button. Sure Jakob wasn't at his 100% best with travel and a hard effort beforehand, but he was shadowboxing and racing the mascot 30 seconds later. The problem was not fitness, it is an aspect of his, his sole weakness as a 1500m runner. Josh or Jake beat him by getting by him, but the other way would be to wait, wait, wait and then come by in the last 50 when he doesn't have another gear to fend you off. 12.89 in a 3:31.9 race is impressive, but again Brian Komen closed in similar on an extremely windy, early season race in Doha that was only marginally slower. Komen himself was asked about beating Jakob and he said he is great at pacing and his only vulnerability is that extra gear in the last 50. He is correct. Josh Kerr has intimated the same and it is what he was referencing with the "yes-man" comments. Running from the front is always going to be a challenge, but it is more Jakob's ability/inability to either chase down someone who passes him (from 300-150 out) or hold off a patient kicker in the last 50 that is the crux of the matter. This becomes moot if his fitness advantage is such that he builds a gap like Tim in Doha 2019. But I can't see that happening.
I don’t agree -I think a fast 50 last meters is a rarity in a fast race. But I think a number of athletes (also Jakob) can have this as a part of a longer kick. But the athlete then has energy left -very little about kicking ability. Even a Beamish and a Nordås can only do this if they have conserved energy by giving some meters to the leaders…
Rewatch some of Jakob’s losses: The two times against Kerr, and WC against Wightman -no kick there from the Brits the last 50m. -Jakob held his position or faded slightly. And against Kiplimo (3000m 2020) and Gebrhiwet (5000m 2019) it’s the same -Jakob faded slightly the few last meters. No 50m kick from his competitors. Jakob is simply being outrun by better athletes the actual day..!
Let me add something about Cheruiyot: Yes, he gained on Jakob in Oslo, and would have won without Jakob’s dive. But in my eyes that had nothing to do with a kicking ability from the Kenyan. -Jakob simply hit a wall, whereas Cheruiyot didn’t. And in Jakob’s first sub 3.30 race (2020) Cheruiyot’s newfound speed the last 50m seemed to come from him easing down to let Jakob catch up -and then out sprinting him based on this conserved energy…
Please don’t lead the whole race Jakob, this is definitely happening if you do
He squeezes as much as he kicks and he can smoothly hit an impressive top gear and hold it. He is vulnerable in the last 50 if he is trailing or you are someone who can shift gears off a fast pace. I find it surprising that people don't acknowledge this, as it was a problem for El Guerrouj too and is honestly nothing to be defensive about. You could see what Tim did in Stockholm the last 50 where it looked like he hit the turbo button. Sure Jakob wasn't at his 100% best with travel and a hard effort beforehand, but he was shadowboxing and racing the mascot 30 seconds later. The problem was not fitness, it is an aspect of his, his sole weakness as a 1500m runner. Josh or Jake beat him by getting by him, but the other way would be to wait, wait, wait and then come by in the last 50 when he doesn't have another gear to fend you off. 12.89 in a 3:31.9 race is impressive, but again Brian Komen closed in similar on an extremely windy, early season race in Doha that was only marginally slower. Komen himself was asked about beating Jakob and he said he is great at pacing and his only vulnerability is that extra gear in the last 50. He is correct. Josh Kerr has intimated the same and it is what he was referencing with the "yes-man" comments. Running from the front is always going to be a challenge, but it is more Jakob's ability/inability to either chase down someone who passes him (from 300-150 out) or hold off a patient kicker in the last 50 that is the crux of the matter. This becomes moot if his fitness advantage is such that he builds a gap like Tim in Doha 2019. But I can't see that happening.
I think it’s very difficult to verify your 50m sprint theory (that nevertheless may or may not be correct for some athletes). Take for instance El Bakkali -he looks like an outlier with an extreme ability to sprint 50meters. So is this a real ability, or has he simply a habit of holding back some resources so he can do the 50..? And Jakob -what if he didn’t go for an even 200m or 100m even finish, but saved a little for a 50m kick..? Is it tactics, preferred pace or ability..?
It's obvious that Cheryuiot and a few other 800m based runners (Wightman, Kerr) have better last speed in the 50m. Jakob has exploited to the extreme his poll of speed-endurance.
I don’t agree -I think a fast 50 last meters is a rarity in a fast race. But I think a number of athletes (also Jakob) can have this as a part of a longer kick. But the athlete then has energy left -very little about kicking ability. Even a Beamish and a Nordås can only do this if they have conserved energy by giving some meters to the leaders…
Rewatch some of Jakob’s losses: The two times against Kerr, and WC against Wightman -no kick there from the Brits the last 50m. -Jakob held his position or faded slightly. And against Kiplimo (3000m 2020) and Gebrhiwet (5000m 2019) it’s the same -Jakob faded slightly the few last meters. No 50m kick from his competitors. Jakob is simply being outrun by better athletes the actual day..!
Let me add something about Cheruiyot: Yes, he gained on Jakob in Oslo, and would have won without Jakob’s dive. But in my eyes that had nothing to do with a kicking ability from the Kenyan. -Jakob simply hit a wall, whereas Cheruiyot didn’t. And in Jakob’s first sub 3.30 race (2020) Cheruiyot’s newfound speed the last 50m seemed to come from him easing down to let Jakob catch up -and then out sprinting him based on this conserved energy…
I acknowledged the Jakob problem is that he a) won’t outkick the Brits if they get by him - as seen in most of his losses since 2021, remember they are chasing him down so if they go by they just have to hold him off, not gain on him, the last 50. So far I’ve never seen him win this way coming back after being passed.
b) won’t be able to hold them off if they have reserve in the last 50m. This is less tested, but why else would you seek to squeeze from so far out and run away if you trusted the last 50m? Kipyegon does not worry about this in her races because she knows her last 50 will be unmatched.
Jakobs strategy is predicated on pushing the pace enough so as to neutralize b), other athletes will have nothing else, and scare them off a) - pace will be too hot to consider passing from 400 on in.
It's obvious that Cheryuiot and a few other 800m based runners (Wightman, Kerr) have better last speed in the 50m. Jakob has exploited to the extreme his poll of speed-endurance.
I don’t think 800m speed has any importance for the last 200m or 50m in a fast 1500m -even I could have out-sprinted f.ex Kerr and Wightman here if I was fresh enough. So it’s about how tired one is on the home straight -in WC 2023 the slowest 800m runner in the field (Nordås) gained significantly on Kerr and Jakob in the home straight, and especially the last 50m!
I acknowledged the Jakob problem is that he a) won’t outkick the Brits if they get by him - as seen in most of his losses since 2021, remember they are chasing him down so if they go by they just have to hold him off, not gain on him, the last 50. So far I’ve never seen him win this way coming back after being passed.
b) won’t be able to hold them off if they have reserve in the last 50m. This is less tested, but why else would you seek to squeeze from so far out and run away if you trusted the last 50m? Kipyegon does not worry about this in her races because she knows her last 50 will be unmatched.
Jakobs strategy is predicated on pushing the pace enough so as to neutralize b), other athletes will have nothing else, and scare them off a) - pace will be too hot to consider passing from 400 on in.
Of course Jakob doesn’t “trust” the last 50m like Kipyegon or El Bakkali do. Why would he -his mindset is different. -If he went for a 50m sprint win he would (if successful) always only win with a little margin. But Jakob is there also for the good times and a dominant win. Of course he must go for a squeeze strategy. I’m sure he never ever even considered a 50m sprint strategy. -He’s not there for the win! The win is just a by thing (that he of course very much will have) -he’s there to be a good runner… But that means unfolding one’s potential, and a 50m sprint ability would only be a curiosity - a good runner would out run such an athlete. Hadn’t Girma faltered in (later) 2023 he might have toyed with El Bakkali…
It's obvious that Cheryuiot and a few other 800m based runners (Wightman, Kerr) have better last speed in the 50m. Jakob has exploited to the extreme his poll of speed-endurance.
I don’t think 800m speed has any importance for the last 200m or 50m in a fast 1500m -even I could have out-sprinted f.ex Kerr and Wightman here if I was fresh enough. So it’s about how tired one is on the home straight -in WC 2023 the slowest 800m runner in the field (Nordås) gained significantly on Kerr and Jakob in the home straight, and especially the last 50m!
This lack of context, that you point out, amazes me. We had the "same" to the extreme some years ago. No sh*t that a guy that runs 3:45 races will "have more kick" than a guy that runs 3:27. As we have seen since that kick is meaningless if you cant run a 3:29.
Of course Jakob doesn’t “trust” the last 50m like Kipyegon or El Bakkali do. Why would he -his mindset is different. -If he went for a 50m sprint win he would (if successful) always only win with a little margin. But Jakob is there also for the good times and a dominant win. Of course he must go for a squeeze strategy. I’m sure he never ever even considered a 50m sprint strategy. -He’s not there for the win! The win is just a by thing (that he of course very much will have) -he’s there to be a good runner… But that means unfolding one’s potential, and a 50m sprint ability would only be a curiosity - a good runner would out run such an athlete. Hadn’t Girma faltered in (later) 2023 he might have toyed with El Bakkali…
I think Jakob may say that but ultimately he is trying to win and controlling the race at a fast tempo is his best chance (in his eyes) based on eliminating 75%+ of the field’s chance to win off the jump. Tim Cheruiyot had the exact same calculus so Jakob is not special in this tactic, let’s be honest. He wants to win and run fast, but being opposed to making it a complete kickers race/random does not make him unique as Kerr/Nuguse would do the same at this point in my eyes were there no Jakob. And Tim/Kipsang are similar. So once we’ve established he’s going to be up front I think the squeeze is to burn off his competition due to his fear of leaving the chance for someone to overtake him inside the last 300 and his knowledge that it is uncertain if he can either pass back or hold off a late kicker.
We’ve seen in his races 3,000 and up, he has the speed advantage and he doesn’t apply the same strategy for the most part.
This post was edited 58 seconds after it was posted.
They are, but "gradually faster" isn't the usual definition of a kick.
He squeezes as much as he kicks and he can smoothly hit an impressive top gear and hold it. He is vulnerable in the last 50 if he is trailing or you are someone who can shift gears off a fast pace. I find it surprising that people don't acknowledge this, as it was a problem for El Guerrouj too and is honestly nothing to be defensive about. You could see what Tim did in Stockholm the last 50 where it looked like he hit the turbo button. Sure Jakob wasn't at his 100% best with travel and a hard effort beforehand, but he was shadowboxing and racing the mascot 30 seconds later. The problem was not fitness, it is an aspect of his, his sole weakness as a 1500m runner. Josh or Jake beat him by getting by him, but the other way would be to wait, wait, wait and then come by in the last 50 when he doesn't have another gear to fend you off. 12.89 in a 3:31.9 race is impressive, but again Brian Komen closed in similar on an extremely windy, early season race in Doha that was only marginally slower. Komen himself was asked about beating Jakob and he said he is great at pacing and his only vulnerability is that extra gear in the last 50. He is correct. Josh Kerr has intimated the same and it is what he was referencing with the "yes-man" comments. Running from the front is always going to be a challenge, but it is more Jakob's ability/inability to either chase down someone who passes him (from 300-150 out) or hold off a patient kicker in the last 50 that is the crux of the matter. This becomes moot if his fitness advantage is such that he builds a gap like Tim in Doha 2019. But I can't see that happening.