I don't think Valby has a good shot at the 5k team even if she is in 14:40s fitness as she likely will be outkicked for the top 3 spot with a winning time > 15 mins
10k is still the best bet if she can somehow get the standard
Why would Valby let it be a 15+ race? She likes to hammer.
You don't need the standard to be qualified. There are 42 people who will be in the olympics for 5,000 meters. Only 24 of the slots at the moment are possible to be filled by people with the auto-standard. So 18 or more people will make it in on ranking in the world.
The US women who are currently ranked high enough, thus being qualified if the US sends them by being in our top 3, are:
Natosha Rogers, Whittni Morgan, Allie Buchalski, Parker Valby, Abby Nichols, Emily Infeld, Kayley Delay. And a few others would slide into ranking position with a top 3 at the US championships as long as it's a reasonably fast time around 15 flat.
I don't know why people still think the only way you can qualify is by getting the auto standard. There have been so many examples of people qualifying without the standard.
So the race isn't just out of the handful of people with the auto who aren't injured, any of these several additional runners would also be qualified via ranking.
Also, Valby just solo'd a 14:52 a copule days after a 31:40 10,000m. With an olympic spot on the line and other people to draft off for part of the race, I'd think she could run 14:40's and make the team. She also ran her 30:50 ish 10,000m largely by herself. I think she could reasonably make both teams. In the 10,000m however there are fewer spots that go to ranking athletes, so her qualification is not for certain if she doesn't run the 30:40 at the trials, but if she runs another sub 31 with the bonus points she should be one of the first couple in on ranking, giving her a spot as long as a few more athletes don't suddenly hit the auto from other countries.
You don't need the standard to be qualified. There are 42 people who will be in the olympics for 5,000 meters. Only 24 of the slots at the moment are possible to be filled by people with the auto-standard. So 18 or more people will make it in on ranking in the world.
The US women who are currently ranked high enough, thus being qualified if the US sends them by being in our top 3, are:
Natosha Rogers, Whittni Morgan, Allie Buchalski, Parker Valby, Abby Nichols, Emily Infeld, Kayley Delay. And a few others would slide into ranking position with a top 3 at the US championships as long as it's a reasonably fast time around 15 flat.
I don't know why people still think the only way you can qualify is by getting the auto standard. There have been so many examples of people qualifying without the standard.
So the race isn't just out of the handful of people with the auto who aren't injured, any of these several additional runners would also be qualified via ranking.
Similar logic applies in the 10000m with all of the drops in the Road to Paris list that will occur.
Also, Valby just solo'd a 14:52 a copule days after a 31:40 10,000m. With an olympic spot on the line and other people to draft off for part of the race, I'd think she could run 14:40's and make the team. She also ran her 30:50 ish 10,000m largely by herself. I think she could reasonably make both teams. In the 10,000m however there are fewer spots that go to ranking athletes, so her qualification is not for certain if she doesn't run the 30:40 at the trials, but if she runs another sub 31 with the bonus points she should be one of the first couple in on ranking, giving her a spot as long as a few more athletes don't suddenly hit the auto from other countries.
Also, Valby just solo'd a 14:52 a copule days after a 31:40 10,000m. With an olympic spot on the line and other people to draft off for part of the race, I'd think she could run 14:40's and make the team. She also ran her 30:50 ish 10,000m largely by herself. I think she could reasonably make both teams. In the 10,000m however there are fewer spots that go to ranking athletes, so her qualification is not for certain if she doesn't run the 30:40 at the trials, but if she runs another sub 31 with the bonus points she should be one of the first couple in on ranking, giving her a spot as long as a few more athletes don't suddenly hit the auto from other countries.
Euro champs 10000m is tonight?
Will the 10,000m at the european championships be a sub 30:40 race for women and sub 27:00 for men? I highly doubt it for men, and still probably not for the women unless someone take it out real hot.
Will the 10,000m at the european championships be a sub 30:40 race for women and sub 27:00 for men? I highly doubt it for men, and still probably not for the women unless someone take it out real hot.
That is probably true, so what races were you thinking of when you said “unless someone gets the auto-qualifier”?
I agree. Given the circumstances she could make Top 3 in the 5, maybe even being able to not have to lead it most of the way. But if she is not the one to go out and push the pace, how slow will those initial laps be? Can she beat Schweizer and Cranny in a 15:05 race? And if it is that slow, does she open the door to other kickers (e.g., Tuohy, Andrews, etc.)?
I doubt Valby can beat Cranny in a slower race, no. Not in the final, maybe in a prelim. Cranny, ESP, Andrews have real speed. And others. It is not in her interest to turn it into a 1500m race with them.
Tuohy is a complete unknown right now. It is possible she might get bumped from the starting line at this point because faster times are being run, like Halladay Lowry 15:02 tonight.
I think Tuohy is (maybe barely) in the top 30. Presumably Halladay-Lowry will enter either steeple or 5000 but which one? She might have a better shot at steeple. In a slowish 5000 watch Donahue who is running well.
You don't need the standard to be qualified. There are 42 people who will be in the olympics for 5,000 meters. Only 24 of the slots at the moment are possible to be filled by people with the auto-standard. So 18 or more people will make it in on ranking in the world.
The US women who are currently ranked high enough, thus being qualified if the US sends them by being in our top 3, are:
Natosha Rogers, Whittni Morgan, Allie Buchalski, Parker Valby, Abby Nichols, Emily Infeld, Kayley Delay. And a few others would slide into ranking position with a top 3 at the US championships as long as it's a reasonably fast time around 15 flat.
I don't know why people still think the only way you can qualify is by getting the auto standard. There have been so many examples of people qualifying without the standard.
So the race isn't just out of the handful of people with the auto who aren't injured, any of these several additional runners would also be qualified via ranking.
This is it. She is within the "in world rankings quota" category on the road top Paris list for the 5k, so she is fine. Valby doesn't need the time standard.
10k might be different though.
It just stinks for all the runners that they don't know FOR SURE what happens if they place top 3 at the trials. In the 5k for example Rodenfels, Hasz and others are under 'next best by world ranking', so just outside the quota. If one of them makes top 3 in the 5k will they go? If Henes gets top 3 in the 10k will she go? What about Schweizer?
I doubt Valby can beat Cranny in a slower race, no. Not in the final, maybe in a prelim. Cranny, ESP, Andrews have real speed. And others. It is not in her interest to turn it into a 1500m race with them.
Tuohy is a complete unknown right now. It is possible she might get bumped from the starting line at this point because faster times are being run, like Halladay Lowry 15:02 tonight.
I think Tuohy is (maybe barely) in the top 30. Presumably Halladay-Lowry will enter either steeple or 5000 but which one? She might have a better shot at steeple. In a slowish 5000 watch Donahue who is running well.
From watching Valbys post race interview it sounds like she isn’t the biggest fan of the 10k. Of course she is tired at the time of the questions and maybe also embellishing a little because she was put on the spot.
it just seems like she is someone who isn’t quite ready mentally to run in an elite 10k, physically yes. Not at a world level but at the US level she could def make the 10k team. I just think she will focus all in on the 5k but come back and run the 10k if the 5k didn’t pan out.
Parker will most likely lead the final with the pursuit of a sub 14:52, I think the time will certainly be possible but it may hurt her finish for top 3. It will be interesting to see, I’m curious if her world ranking will be good enough if she were to get top 3 in a 15:0X race.
I think Tuohy is (maybe barely) in the top 30. Presumably Halladay-Lowry will enter either steeple or 5000 but which one? She might have a better shot at steeple. In a slowish 5000 watch Donahue who is running well.
Lowry has not entered either race yet. Delay, who I thought was a steepler, is in the 5k. Are there any other fast 5ks between now and the trials? If not she might be okay.
I think Tuohy is (maybe barely) in the top 30. Presumably Halladay-Lowry will enter either steeple or 5000 but which one? She might have a better shot at steeple. In a slowish 5000 watch Donahue who is running well.
Lowry has not entered either race yet. Delay, who I thought was a steepler, is in the 5k. Are there any other fast 5ks between now and the trials? If not she might be okay.
Qualifying window for US Trials closed yesterday, no?
Lowry has not entered either race yet. Delay, who I thought was a steepler, is in the 5k. Are there any other fast 5ks between now and the trials? If not she might be okay.
Qualifying window for US Trials closed yesterday, no?
ESP has peaked early in the past, she's almost certainly in a good place to qualify in any event she chooses, but can she hold her peak through to Worlds? Did she take that much of a step up to the next level that she isn't even peaked yet? Hopefully yes to the first, and if it is yes to the second I'd question if her milk is coming from the same farm as Shelby's burrito. Could just be a product of a competitive environment with Mckay and Maclean running well too though.
Valby is an enigma since she hasn't faced top competition yet and has a non-traditional training philosophy. Perhaps though with going hard all the time solo on the arc trainers she is more capable of holding a max effort solo mentally than other runners. This might mean less room for improvement in the short run in a fast race versus just soloing against inferior competition.
Cranny has clearly been training through early meets and is fit but not sharp yet. She didn't have that top end gear at the end of the 5000 last night that you would expect from a 3:58 1500m runner. I think she doubles back and 3 rounds of 1500s works to her strength advantage and we see a strong 1500m performance (not necessarily on the team) like with Schweizer a couple years ago.
For Henes, last night was a perfect low pressure test. How long could she push the pace out front for a sub olympic standard time. It allowed her to get used to the effort and take it back to training. She can also decide if she's ready to try and double or better off focusing on just the 10000 since she's currently the top ranked runner outside the quota and there are 4 americans inside the quota ahead of her.
Schweizer shows she's in shape to qualify on a good day in both the 5 and 10, but the field is deep enough that she might be lucky to make the team in just one event.
