Isn’t it too early for Valby to go pro?

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3 weeks ago 06/10/2024 1:54am EDT

re: Coach Timmons Training

Coach Timmons Training wrote:
Why in the world would you think it is “the other way around”? Valby has not yet demonstrated superior speed than Cranny or Schweizer, so ESP, Cranny and Schweizer will likely sit on her and kick her down in the last 400m.
Right, now Valby, Schweizer, and Cranny are pretty evenly matched over the 5000m distance, with Valby maybe even having a slight edge (particularly in hot and humid conditions) but I don’t think that is the case (onlybased upon what we have seen so far) if Valby has to do all of the work out front for most of the race.
However, in a paced race with pace lights and/or with faster athletes in a global race (in which Valby is not the rabbit), Valby quite possibly would come out ahead of Cranny and Schweizer. But that is not the situation at the Trials.

Valby has basically only ever ran out front, and is quite comfortable there without lights or a pacer.

I agree with you that the 3 stars will sit on Valby and run her down.

The question is how fast will Valby be going, and if any of the group of 3 (or Valby) fades.

This rarely happens, but I do think Valby will force an honest race. Question is that 14:35 pace, or 14:50 pace. Will be fun.

3 weeks ago 06/10/2024 1:55am EDT

re: ucovhhc

ucovhhc wrote:
Not ranked in the top 3 in the US, so she will probably not make it to Paris (even if she had enough points)

^This statement was so embarrassingly incorrect that the thread should have ended right there.

3 weeks ago 06/10/2024 1:56am EDT

re: Coach Timmons Training

Coach Timmons Training wrote:
ucovhhc wrote:
Not ranked in the top 3 in the US, so she will probably not make it to Paris (even if she had enough points)
^This statement was so embarrassingly incorrect that the thread should have ended right there.

Meaning if she makes Top 3, her ranking will be sufficient, unless the 10000m is a very slow race.

3 weeks ago 06/10/2024 2:03am EDT

re: slow learners

slow learners wrote:
Coach Timmons Training wrote:
Why in the world would you think it is “the other way around”? Valby has not yet demonstrated superior speed than Cranny or Schweizer, so ESP, Cranny and Schweizer will likely sit on her and kick her down in the last 400m.
Right, now Valby, Schweizer, and Cranny are pretty evenly matched over the 5000m distance, with Valby maybe even having a slight edge (particularly in hot and humid conditions) but I don’t think that is the case (onlybased upon what we have seen so far) if Valby has to do all of the work out front for most of the race.
However, in a paced race with pace lights and/or with faster athletes in a global race (in which Valby is not the rabbit), Valby quite possibly would come out ahead of Cranny and Schweizer. But that is not the situation at the Trials.
Valby has basically only ever ran out front, and is quite comfortable there without lights or a pacer.
I agree with you that the 3 stars will sit on Valby and run her down.
The question is how fast will Valby be going, and if any of the group of 3 (or Valby) fades.
This rarely happens, but I do think Valby will force an honest race. Question is that 14:35 pace, or 14:50 pace. Will be fun.

It would be very fun to watch, and maybe the odds are 3.5/10(?) that Valby would outlast both Cranny and Schweizer in hot and humid conditions even though they will be drafting off her. (Obviously, ESP is ‘the lock’.)

But are those odds good enough for Valby to risk losing out on the 10000m? Kelati is ‘the lock’ in the 10000m. Cranny and Schweizer will probably not make top 3 in the 10000m if they make the 5000m team.

3 weeks ago 06/10/2024 2:08am EDT

re: ucovhhc

Anyone knows why the 5000w is before the 10000w this time?

3 weeks ago 06/10/2024 2:08am EDT

re: Coach Timmons Training

Coach Timmons Training wrote:
ucovhhc wrote:
Not ranked in the top 3 in the US, so she will probably not make it to Paris (even if she had enough points)
^This statement was so embarrassingly incorrect that the thread should have ended right there.

I just looked at the schedule and the 5000 actually is first, 2 rounds x15 runners with final on Monday.

The 10000 is Saturday, straight final x 24, so 5 full days recovery.

Valby already Oly qualified in 5000 by ranking and very close in 10000.

3 weeks ago 06/10/2024 2:19am EDT

re: slow learners

slow learners wrote:
Coach Timmons Training wrote:
^This statement was so embarrassingly incorrect that the thread should have ended right there.
I just looked at the schedule and the 5000 actually is first, 2 rounds x15 runners with final on Monday.
The 10000 is Saturday, straight final x 24, so 5 full days recovery.
Valby already Oly qualified in 5000 by ranking and very close in 10000.

Yes, the 5000m rounds and final will compromise any athlete’s peak performance in the 10000m. Kelati is currently the only athlete I think could have likely pulled off getting Top 3 in a 5/10 double, since she is so far ahead of the other athletes. But even Kelati is not risking her 10000m race.

I understand the temptation for Valby to try and race the 5000m (since she is more comfortable with that distance) and then fall back on the 10000m if it didn’t work out.

However, maybe Valby has something more to give in the 5000m than what we’ve seen so far, but I don’t buy that, since she was topping out in the 5000m at Nationals (albeit with a 10000m tempo in her legs from two days prior) so she might be worth a 14:45(?) soloing if fresh, and she will basically be ‘soloing’ a 5000m at the Trials (being the defacto rabbit). Can both Schweitzer and Cranny best 14:45 if first drafting off her? I’m not sure.

3 weeks ago 06/10/2024 8:55am EDT

re: Coach Timmons Training

Coach Timmons Training wrote:
slow learners wrote:
I just looked at the schedule and the 5000 actually is first, 2 rounds x15 runners with final on Monday.
The 10000 is Saturday, straight final x 24, so 5 full days recovery.
Valby already Oly qualified in 5000 by ranking and very close in 10000.
Yes, the 5000m rounds and final will compromise any athlete’s peak performance in the 10000m. Kelati is currently the only athlete I think could have likely pulled off getting Top 3 in a 5/10 double, since she is so far ahead of the other athletes. But even Kelati is not risking her 10000m race.
I understand the temptation for Valby to try and race the 5000m (since she is more comfortable with that distance) and then fall back on the 10000m if it didn’t work out.
However, maybe Valby has something more to give in the 5000m than what we’ve seen so far, but I don’t buy that, since she was topping out in the 5000m at Nationals (albeit with a 10000m tempo in her legs from two days prior) so she might be worth a 14:45(?) soloing if fresh, and she will basically be ‘soloing’ a 5000m at the Trials (being the defacto rabbit). Can both Schweitzer and Cranny best 14:45 if first drafting off her? I’m not sure.

Her coach thought she was capable of 14:40 in 2022. Now in 2024 she's solo'ing sub 15 runs. Valby is probably already a 14:30-40 woman before even working on her finishing speed in a maxed out effort.

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