D3 XC Nationals 2024 thread

Obviously, Gregg crossed my mind. I think it’s more about the fact that La Crosse already has guys that are more proven and known. Before that 10k at Nationals (Schermerhorn and Green), none of Wartburg’s guys really had any sort of accolades to their name outside of qualifying for a national meet.

And I suppose one could argue Sobaski being proven with his 3rd place finish in the steeple in 2023, but quite frankly, outside of that, his times are not that eye-popping and he finished 136th at XC last fall.

I think you’re pretty spot on with your rankings. Wartburg and La Crosse are the clear 1/2 in whatever order you want to put them. I’d give La Crosse the edge for now. Whitewater is the #3 in my eyes, but after that the last podium spot is up for grabs.

No Pomona? Yeah right...

Nice trolling, especially since Jeff Miller is the XC Coach. Gunner is indeed back.

I'm hearing rumblings on some impressive transfers heading to Stevens Point. After an impressive Spring season, they can be poised to make national noise with these additions. I don't think it's a coincidence that their coach spent several years at Otterbein who also has had great success bringing in D1 transfers.

rpi got some damn good freshman. Watch out for them, either this year or next.

Very early look at some of the "big 5" meets this fall:

Paul Short Oct 5: RPI, Middlebury, Brockport, CMU, Lynchburg,

Prenats Sept 21: Lynchburg, Washington & Lee, Calvin, Wartburg, North Central, Whitewater?

Augustana Oct 19: Calvin, Wartburg, North Central, Whitewater

Conn Oct 19: Middlebury, Williams, MIT, Amherst, Tufts, St. Olaf

Geneseo: Oct 19: Geneseo, RPI, Brockport, Carnegie Mellon

Lots of teams haven't released their full schedule. La Crosse, Hopkins, and a lot of the UAA and SCIAC schools are still pending.

Also some schools have prenats listed on their schedule as being october 4th instead of sept. 21st, perhaps there is a mixup? The meet on the 21st likely involves some D1s, but so did Louisville back in 2021 and sometimes the nationals course hosted two meets before nationals (MSU Spartan in Sept. and Prenats in October at the 2022 course, Dickinson Long/Short in Sept. and the traditional prenats in october last fall). 3 months out so lots more to change.

As for Paul Short, I'd expect RPI, Lynchburg and CMU to undoubtedly compete in the gold race. If La Crosse or Hopkins returns I'd expect the same as well. As for the rest of the D3s capable of making nationals, they'll be in the brown.

Word on the street is that UWL also has a number of top freshman recruits. UWL should be tough to beat.

I'll predict UWL doesn't need a single freshman to be in their top 7, but they are reloading in a big way. It's always interesting to see how their tryouts go and how much the kids who don't make the team progress when they are "off-roster."

Trinity (TX) is another team that will make big noise if the NCAA looks outside of the East & Midwest.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Williams will easily be top 5 and they have a real shot at the top 2. Naimot may have been their top at track nationals coming in 8th in the 10k, but their best XC returner from last year's squad is Dentale who was 20th at nationals in XC and the 4th fastest overall returner. Conversely, Naimot was 52nd in XC. Looks like Dentale was hurt for track, but if both are running at top level, that's a solid 1-2 punch. The dark horse is Tuohy-Gaydos. The man was insane his freshman year and was hurt his entire sophomore. I have no idea if he is coming back (he is listed on the Williams roster), but he was a sub 14 min 5k runner as a 1st year! So even if he is in decent form, they could put 3 in the top 20 or even top 10. Of course, it's a 5 man race, but we know Williams always gets the recruits, and this year is no different. They have them on their website, but they have one listed who ran and 8:24 in the 3000, another two at 9:06 and a 9:07 in the 3200, and a 4th at 9:28. There is also a different guy who ran a 4:12 full mile. To have 3 sub 9:10 guys in one class is really solid. Sure, all these kids are going to react differently to college, and I bet half will fizzle out, but even if just 2 of them do well, you've got a very solid top 5. Sub 9:00 3200 runners don't often end up in D3 and the last one I think was Tuohy-Gaydos who came in 2nd at nationals in the 5k his freshman year, so obviously there is potential. To not have them in your top 5 is crazy.

Eh, I wouldn't be so sure.

2022 Amherst had arguably the best recruiting class in D3 that year. In terms of 3200 times, you had the Stephens twins (9:05 and 9:25), Dennen (9:11 full 2 mile), Gemme (9:29) and Cahill (9:11). This should have been more than enough for them to improve upon their 28th place finish from 2021 after losing 3 seniors. In the end, they finished 7th at NESCACs and 6th in their region, losing to a depleted SLU team that didn't make nationals.

The highest placing team with more than 1 freshman competing at nationals in 2023 was Central College who placed 15th. In 2022 it was La Crosse in 8th with the Matthai twins. None of the top 5 teams that year (2022, MIT, Wartburg, Geneseo, JCU & Pomona) had a single freshman racing nationals.

Williams will obviously have a strong team next year. Namiot had a smoking track season, Grahm Tuohy Gaydos should be a force, and I'm giving DeNatale the benefit of a doubt that he'll be in much better shape come the fall after a rough indoor/outdoor campaign. It'll be very cool to see how the Williams freshman class performs. But based on the high school times of a few newcomers, I don't believe it's justified to rank them as high as 5th by default, especially when rival schools are likely to have teams consisting of more veteran athletes used to collegiate training and the competitive experience of nationals.

I don't necessarily, disagree with your statement. Relying on 1st years is always a risky proposition. But also, I think there are a few caveats to be discussed. Yes, Amherst's 2022 frosh class was impressive, but there are things that need to happen to make any recruit successful.

1. Team Culture

2. Team Leadership

3. Frosh Attitude

4. Coaching

Williams basically is a perennial top 10 team. Since 2000 they are arguably the most consistent at qualifying for nationals and placing in the top 10. Even in the last few years they were 3rd in 21', 6th in 22', and 4th in 23'. Success breeds success, and culture matters. Amherst by contrast has only broke the top 5 once since 2000. They are a decent team, but not in Williams category. Walking in on the first day and having the captains say the goals, and seeing the years of success just puts a different expectation on why you are there. It won't work with all recruits, but Williams runners tend to want to do well in everything.

Next up is leadership. You mention the Matthai twins. If you watch their YouTube channel its clear they were committed to doing well in college, but they also idolized Ethan Greg. Having strong leadership on a team that knows what it takes to win, and pushes everyone to be better is essential. In 22' Amherst had elite upperclassman. They had 4 great frosh coming in, and no one to lead them. Let's compare that to Williams this year. Tuohy is a 5 time All American and the runner up in the 5k. Both Naimot and Dentale are All Americans and have years of experience racing at nationals in XC, indoor, and Outdoor. You literally have a completely different talent level than Amherst had to get guidance and be inspired by. If you walk in as a freshman and are already the best on the team, its hard to get better. The Williams guys have 3 strong upper class men to chase after.

I think the biggest indicator of success is the frosh attitude. Do they really want to be competitive, or did they just use it to get into an elite college. You could tell by the Matthai twins in their videos that they were serious about training and getting better. If you look at milesplit, you can tell the runners that gave up after they got their nods the summer after their junior year. Their times either didn't change or even got worse their senior campaign. The ones who are serious almost always have their best races at state right before they graduate. You can also look at Strava and instagram to see if they are training hard or doing races over the summer. Its not hard to tell who is serious when they get on campus. Things always happen. School is harder, injuries, girls, it can all derail a successful campaign. But in general, a sub 9 runner in HS who wants to be better in college can have success.

Finally coaching. While one can argue that a lot of Williams success over the last 25 years was from Farwell who retired recently, they replaced him with a coach who actually ran for Williams back in the day and was an assistant at Michigan. Amherst in 22' had Funky Harris who by all accounts wasn't engaged and was gone at the end of the season. I had friends on that team who said she was not at many of the practices and the team was left to fend for themselves. It wasn't a great situation. Teams with a history of success and training methods have coaches who understand what it takes to win. I think William's continued success after Farwell retired is a testament to that.

I'd also add that I forgot to mention that Williams has another returner from last year's squad in Hardiman. True he is not a top 50 guy, but he was their 5th runner last year and came in 120th. If you add him into the mix you have 3 all Americans returning, a solid 5th runner, and 3 very solid recruits coming into a historical program, with strong leadership and knowledgable coaching. I would be very surprised if they weren't able to have success with this squad.

slight edit:

In 22' Amherst had NO elite upperclassman

you may be right generally about what matters, but everything you said is moot since the nescac thread has already said Graham isn't returning this year and they would have needed him to be in championship winning shape to have a chance again. Williams may still have Naimot and DeNatale who can provide some firepower, but I don't know if two guys and a bunch of untested freshman are a shoe in for top five.

Hopkins has a pretty fast freshmen class coming in. 8:51/4:11 3200/1600 guy and a 9:03/4:08 3200/1600 different guy. Some of their incoming class listed below. Having a guy run 8:51 and a different guy run 4:08 is pretty insane. Watch out for Hopkins this fall and in a year or two!

Freshman #1
1600 - 4:19
3200 - 9:22
5k (XC) - 15:48

Freshman #2
1600 - 4:11
3200 - 8:51

Freshman #3
400 (split) - 50.2
800 - 1:54
1600 - 4:13

Freshman #4
800 - 1:55
Mile - 4:21

Freshman #5
1600 - 4:08
3200 - 9:03
5000 - 14:59

Freshman #6
800- 1:55
Mile- 4:16
2Mile - 9:26

I smoked pot with johnny hopkins. It was johnny hopkins and sloan kettering, and they were blazing that s*** up every day

I don't think that's really been confirmed yet. Either way, I believe Williams has a high ceiling (podium) and a slightly above average floor (outside top 10). The last time Williams finished outside of the top 10 was 2017 (13th).

Bro just go D1. What we doin

Considering the number of sub 15 men Hopkins brings back, Bobby might be able to have a JV squad finish third in the Mid-Atlantic.