12:55 is the old 13:08. Lets sit back and see how many podium
finishes there are by Americans over the next few Olympic and World Championships.
Close, 12:55 is the older 13:04.
Tilastapaja's database only goes back to 1996.
Last year, 15 men ran 12:55.47 or faster. In 1996, 15th on the world list was 13:04.48. Difference: 9.01 seconds.
Going in reverse.
In 1996, 7 men ran 12:55.76 or faster. In 2023, 7th on the world list was 12:45.01. Difference 9.75 seconds.
Easiest rule to compare 5000 times - just add or subtract 9-10 seconds depending on which way you are going. This works great for the WR as well as it was 12:44.39 then and now it's 12:35.36 - Difference of 9.03 seconds.
12:55 is the old 13:08. Lets sit back and see how many podium
finishes there are by Americans over the next few Olympic and World Championships.
Close, 12:55 is the older 13:04.
Tilastapaja's database only goes back to 1996.
Last year, 15 men ran 12:55.47 or faster. In 1996, 15th on the world list was 13:04.48. Difference: 9.01 seconds.
Going in reverse.
In 1996, 7 men ran 12:55.76 or faster. In 2023, 7th on the world list was 12:45.01. Difference 9.75 seconds.
Easiest rule to compare 5000 times - just add or subtract 9-10 seconds depending on which way you are going. This works great for the WR as well as it was 12:44.39 then and now it's 12:35.36 - Difference of 9.03 seconds.
And actually considering how much more lucrative the marathon is, maybe 13:08 is correct.
In 1996, you wouldn't have Takele Bikila (world steeple jr silver in 2021) running 2:03 at age 21 in Berlin. You wouldn't have 19-year-old Dejanae Megersa running 2:05 in Dubai.
Last year, 15 men ran 12:55.47 or faster. In 1996, 15th on the world list was 13:04.48. Difference: 9.01 seconds.
Going in reverse.
In 1996, 7 men ran 12:55.76 or faster. In 2023, 7th on the world list was 12:45.01. Difference 9.75 seconds.
Easiest rule to compare 5000 times - just add or subtract 9-10 seconds depending on which way you are going. This works great for the WR as well as it was 12:44.39 then and now it's 12:35.36 - Difference of 9.03 seconds.
Too high. Look at 2012, a year with fast 5,000s where athletes went for it in a Paris race. Gebremeskel (great runner don’t get me wrong) 12:46 is no 12:37 guy in superspikes. 15th best time was 12:59.77 and there was little dropoff after. It is somewhere around 5-6s. You are adding 3-4s that have more to do with better racing opps, new entries into 5k running (Uganda), and more competitive/deep fields.
EDIT: Renato has said .5s per lap which I can see at 5k speeds. That is high for me on 1500s as the effect seems less the faster you go with almost no difference in the 800.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Seems reasonable, I usually subtract/add 1.5s from 1500m, 8 for 5k, and 21 for 10k. The shoes obviously help more as you go up in distance.
Also, THOUGHTSLEADER, Gebremeskel was a beast in 2012 closing that 12:46 race in 54 with most of it in the last 200m. Would've won gold over Farah in London, but got boxed pretty bad and had too much to make up. I have zero doubt he could hang with peak Cheptegai who ran 12:35 in the supers.
Don't forget. Cheptegai is 12:35 in the supershoes and although he has golds, he's been FAR from dominant like Geb/KB were. So I don't think a 12:29-12:31 should shock anyone.
Don't forget. Cheptegai is 12:35 in the supershoes and although he has golds, he's been FAR from dominant like Geb/KB were. So I don't think a 12:29-12:31 should shock anyone.
"Super shoes" impact is overrated at every distance. In every sport guys(athlete wise) are better than guys 27 years ago. Only in Track do people generally old timers not allow for marked improvement. I'ts almost 30 years later than the data being sampled. The means should have dropped at least 10 seconds in 2.5 plus decades.If super shoes were that impactful? How come only 5 guys have run faster than Ritz did 15 years ago?
Seems reasonable, I usually subtract/add 1.5s from 1500m, 8 for 5k, and 21 for 10k. The shoes obviously help more as you go up in distance.
Also, THOUGHTSLEADER, Gebremeskel was a beast in 2012 closing that 12:46 race in 54 with most of it in the last 200m. Would've won gold over Farah in London, but got boxed pretty bad and had too much to make up. I have zero doubt he could hang with peak Cheptegai who ran 12:35 in the supers.
So you’ve made my point somewhat even better. He ran 12:46 in a fast-finish race (2:27 last 1K) not optimal for a lifetime PB. Cheptegei’s 12:35 was in a near-perfect paced time trial. No wavelight for him either. He even celebrated early. So to me that was a race showing he could hang with Cheptegei as you said. I have no doubt that the top in that field was somewhere in the 12:40-12:44 range. And then Gebremeskel and Gebrihwet were a little better than that given todays advantages.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Don't forget. Cheptegai is 12:35 in the supershoes and although he has golds, he's been FAR from dominant like Geb/KB were. So I don't think a 12:29-12:31 should shock anyone.
"Super shoes" impact is overrated at every distance. In every sport guys(athlete wise) are better than guys 27 years ago. Only in Track do people generally old timers not allow for marked improvement. I'ts almost 30 years later than the data being sampled. The means should have dropped at least 10 seconds in 2.5 plus decades.If super shoes were that impactful? How come only 5 guys have run faster than Ritz did 15 years ago?
U.S. Guys, sorry.Think about this..every year for 15 years in a country now of over 330M people, you add 3-4 "can't miss" prospects per year, and then some that move up over time and we have 5 guys who have run faster than a guy did 15 years ago? That's outrageous? I do not think so. In the past 17 years two homegrown Americans have run faster than Webb did in 2007?